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Off Season Moves and discussion
#161 · November 21, 2021, 5:06 am
The next 10 day could be interesting on the player movement front. With Dec 1 being he end of the CBA and consensus is that will initiate a “lockout” that will put a freeze on player transactions until the new contract … good chance that is around the scheduled start of ST.
That scenario puts pressure on both the teams and players. Teams if they want to contend need to hit the season running and … especially for pitchers … want to know who is on the team for ST and get them ready. Negotiation with FA (or making trades) is not a instant process and with not certainty of getting who you want … need to get resolution before the lockout for at least some critical 2023 needs. Flip side … might get FA cheaper given the volume of FA all under a tight timeline crunch.
Players don’t want to get into that scenario with a lot of FA trying to sign in short window … if you are not the most sought after might get hung out to dry for pay or even signing to start the season … motivated maybe to take the best deal now and eliminate the risk next spring.
#162 · November 22, 2021, 8:55 am
Names from the past - c Blake Hunt, who was included in the Snell deal, was not protected on the Rays' 40-man; RH SP Enyel de los Santos, who was traded for ss Fredy Galvis much to fan uproar that de los Santos would be the next great Padres starter, is a Free Agent; and 1b/of Jake Bauers, who was part of the Will Myers deal, is a Free Agent.
Hunt is starting to look like Austin Hedges II while de los Santos still hasn't developed his secondary pitches or improved his control after several years in the Phillies system. Bauers was that sweet swinging teenager who never developed his power stroke - a typical AAAA player who just couldn't make the final hurdle; still only 26 years old.
#163 · November 22, 2021, 3:57 pm
Olsen’s name seems to be high a many wish list for a Padre trade with Oakland. Understandable since he is an elite 1B/hitter but not sure that is a move that can happen. Olsen his only 2 years control … estimated $12-13MM in arbitration in 2022 then probably near $20MM in 2023. Given the Padres current payroll that may be hard to absorb even if he is the only add. What makes that worse is that all I have heard about the A’s demands are that they are extremely high coupled with other teams (NYY) are also interested.
Some may be hanging their hats on OAK trimming to save money … but would not get over excited about a fire sale … currently payroll is estimated at around $85MM with half of that going away after next season plus some other trade options who will be controlled through 2023 as is Olsen. Basically a do nothing scenario gets them to just over $40MM in 2023 and even lower if the move Chapman and/or Montes along with some non-tender options. Basically OAK has the luxury to make a lot of moves to cut payroll and add prospects in a way that lets them hold on Olsen for a maximum prospect return … maybe now, maybe in ST, maybe at the trade deadline.
#164 · November 22, 2021, 5:44 pm
Quote from fenn68 on November 22, 2021, 3:57 pmOlsen’s name seems to be high a many wish list for a Padre trade with Oakland. Understandable since he is an elite 1B/hitter but not sure that is a move that can happen. Olsen his only 2 years control … estimated $12-13MM in arbitration in 2022 then probably near $20MM in 2023. Given the Padres current payroll that may be hard to absorb even if he is the only add. What makes that worse is that all I have heard about the A’s demands are that they are extremely high coupled with other teams (NYY) are also interested.
Some may be hanging their hats on OAK trimming to save money … but would not get over excited about a fire sale … currently payroll is estimated at around $85MM with half of that going away after next season plus some other trade options who will be controlled through 2023 as is Olsen. Basically a do nothing scenario gets them to just over $40MM in 2023 and even lower if the move Chapman and/or Montes along with some non-tender options. Basically OAK has the luxury to make a lot of moves to cut payroll and add prospects in a way that lets them hold on Olsen for a maximum prospect return … maybe now, maybe in ST, maybe at the trade deadline.
And I have seen reports that say that OAK wants to get under $50M this season. So that means that they may need cut as much $35M this offseason.
Yes, Olson is the prize in OAK, but I think he is the key to SD going further.
#165 · November 23, 2021, 8:21 am
According to MLBTR, BAL is dangling John Means in trade talks. This seems like the "typical" Preller target. 3 years of control via arbitration left. And over the last 3 seasons in the AL East and their tiny ball parks, owns a 3.74 ERA, with a 1.078 WHIP. And has averaged 150 innings except for 2020.
Maybe expand the deal and get Santander?? Who also has 3 years of control as well.
A rotation of Darvish, Snell, Clevinger, Means, Musgrove would be really nice!
#166 · November 23, 2021, 10:26 am
Quote from BoosterSD on November 23, 2021, 8:21 amAccording to MLBTR, BAL is dangling John Means in trade talks. This seems like the "typical" Preller target. 3 years of control via arbitration left. And over the last 3 seasons in the AL East and their tiny ball parks, owns a 3.74 ERA, with a 1.078 WHIP. And has averaged 150 innings except for 2020.
Maybe expand the deal and get Santander?? Who also has 3 years of control as well.
A rotation of Darvish, Snell, Clevinger, Means, Musgrove would be really nice!
He would be a good get ... would cost some elite prospects given he as 3 years control and in ARB 1 probably at only $3MM ... meaning money is not the issue with BALT with him but get big prospects for the rebuild is.
Since one of the top prospects for them is one of the top prospects in baseball in C Rutschman ... Campusano is not a factor. Bet they would be hunting in the Abrams - Hassell - Gore - Weathers pool supported by the Means - Woods - Merrill pool. At least 3 for 1 given a LOT of other teams need / want quality SP and based on FA are willing to pay.
IF the Padres want to expand the deal ... would prefer targeting Mancini ... only one year control at about $8MM in ARB vs Santander with 3 years control and now only $3MM in arbitration. BALT might be willing to sell lower on Mancini given the short control / higher salary. Mancini in my mind is a better hitter and when Myers comes off the books ... maybe open to an extension since he is still only 29.
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Should not be a big issue to move Frazier and a couple of other fringe contract so offset the added $11MMish.
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Depends which pitcher(s) would go in the deal ... and who the Padres have confidence in to step in to a starting role for mid-season injuries ... but given the demand for any kind of established ML pitching ... Padres may have an "extra" arm to market (e.g Paddack, Weathers) for that LF bat upgrade.
Could set up some domino movers.
#167 · November 23, 2021, 10:40 am
Quote from BoosterSD on November 22, 2021, 5:44 pmQuote from fenn68 on November 22, 2021, 3:57 pmOlsen’s name seems to be high a many wish list for a Padre trade with Oakland. Understandable since he is an elite 1B/hitter but not sure that is a move that can happen. Olsen his only 2 years control … estimated $12-13MM in arbitration in 2022 then probably near $20MM in 2023. Given the Padres current payroll that may be hard to absorb even if he is the only add. What makes that worse is that all I have heard about the A’s demands are that they are extremely high coupled with other teams (NYY) are also interested.
Some may be hanging their hats on OAK trimming to save money … but would not get over excited about a fire sale … currently payroll is estimated at around $85MM with half of that going away after next season plus some other trade options who will be controlled through 2023 as is Olsen. Basically a do nothing scenario gets them to just over $40MM in 2023 and even lower if the move Chapman and/or Montes along with some non-tender options. Basically OAK has the luxury to make a lot of moves to cut payroll and add prospects in a way that lets them hold on Olsen for a maximum prospect return … maybe now, maybe in ST, maybe at the trade deadline.
And I have seen reports that say that OAK wants to get under $50M this season. So that means that they may need cut as much $35M this offseason.
Yes, Olson is the prize in OAK, but I think he is the key to SD going further.
Maybe they want to ... does not mean they will force the issue and sell low on Olsen since he has a good contract for high quality and a number of teams are interested (e.g. NYY).
Actually they could make a lot of progress sell Manaea ($10MM / 1 year) - Bassitt ($9MM / 1 year) - Montes ($5MM plus 2023 control). Given the ML demand for quality SP teams will be fighting to take those contracts ... and that is already $24MM of the goal. Throw in some non-tender targets and maybe dealing 3B Chapman ($9MM plus a control year) but coming off a poor season) puts them in a position not to sell low on Olsen.
Out of all those names ... Olsen is probably the only one that gets them at least 1 Top 100 type prospect.
#168 · November 23, 2021, 1:19 pm
Clint Frazier clears waivers and is released by the NYY … now a FA.
Subject to a physical / medical evaluation on his vertigo issue … Padres in???? ML or MiL contract?
#169 · November 23, 2021, 1:28 pm
Quote from fenn68 on November 23, 2021, 1:19 pmClint Frazier clears waivers and is released by the NYY … now a FA.
Subject to a physical / medical evaluation on his vertigo issue … Padres in???? ML or MiL contract?
With our lack of OF depth, could be good for both. My preference would be a MiL deal, as I dont think you want to DFA someone for Frazier.
My biggest problem with him is that he is RHH, and this team right now is lacking of LHH power. We really have none, which is why I think Olson is so important to the line up and team success.
#170 · November 23, 2021, 3:01 pm
Let’s just send Hosmer plus $30 mil to CHW for Elijah Tatis.
Think they’ll fall for it again?
😉