Quote from David Jay on April 30, 2018, 10:41 am

Chris Paddack has been activated from the DL and will start in Inland Empire tonight.

That rotation now queues up as Baez, Paddack, Lawson, Morejon, Avila, with Bolanos and Bachar to fill the sixth spot for now.

Quote from MrPadre19 on April 30, 2018, 12:49 pm

Quote from David Jay on April 30, 2018, 10:41 am

Chris Paddack has been activated from the DL and will start in Inland Empire tonight.

That rotation now queues up as Baez, Paddack, Lawson, Morejon, Avila, with Bolanos and Bachar to fill the sixth spot for now.

Man......you would think from this point forward that team should be pretty hard to beat.

I can't wait until all of these guys have a chance to move up and sort themselves out and we start seeing these guys in San Diego.

Considering we now still have Lamet and Espinosa out with TJ and another Draft fast approaching.

We still need bats in the system but it's hard to not want to just keep loading up on pitching talent.

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on April 30, 2018, 1:29 pm

When do you guys think is the earliest we see Urias?

If Asuaje struggles is there any chance they bring him up instead of Spangenberg in the next month or so?

Or do they just roll with Pirela?

Quote from fenn68 on April 30, 2018, 3:14 pm

Quote from David Nevin on April 30, 2018, 1:29 pm

When do you guys think is the earliest we see Urias?

If Asuaje struggles is there any chance they bring him up instead of Spangenberg in the next month or so?

Or do they just roll with Pirela?

In an offensive starved team ... guessing they will want to give Pirela as many AB as possible (even if that is at 2B) with the key being Pirela being nudged out of the OF when (if) Myers and Renfroe return to take ABs from Margot and Cordero ... all those other four should get ABs before Urias is added to the mix. Not sure what that means for Jankowski but a good guess that pushes the end of Szczur by mid-season.

No hurry on Urias (I guess mid-season / trade deadline) since he is not on the 40 man and a couple of months to go to get an evaluation on the current bodies (or build some trade value if possible). IF the "first four" OF play well enough and Pirela hits at 2B ... HE might be a useful trade chip in July.

Don't see Spangenberg returning to play 2B ... more the "super-utility" bench guy when Headley is moved or if Villanueva gets injured sharing 3B with Headley.

Quote from fenn68 on April 30, 2018, 3:40 pm

I understand (from multiple reports) that Austin Allen is not a good defensive catcher ... but from a scouting perspective just how dysfunctional is that from the ML prospect perspective. Gary Sanchez had a bad defensive catcher rap and he is the #1 for the NYY because of his bat and the NYY seem happy (and winning). Is Allen's defense projected to be serviceable at the ML level since his bat appears to really be developing?

As I recall Allen was drafted because of his bat from a smaller college and mid-2017 his hitting really took-off in LE and he has apparently (but only about 100 PA) made the tough jump to AA in SA.

2017 (2nd half) in LE: just under 300 PA with a slash line 309/362/574 (.936 OPS)

2018 (April) in SA: just under 100 PA with a slash line of 364/423/773 (1.195 OPS) and low K%

Might be an interesting debate in about a year or so between Hedges (loved for his defense) vs. Allen and his bat. At some point Hedges will have to sustain hitting above the Mendoza line (probably at least .230-.240) to hold his starting slot. A NL team without much hitting #1-7 can do much winning with #8-9 below .200. Would hate to bat #7 ahead of those two ... never see a good pitch to hit.

Quote from Commie on April 30, 2018, 6:12 pm

Quote from David Jay on April 29, 2018, 11:43 pm

Quote from Commie on April 29, 2018, 4:31 pm

Quote from David Jay on April 28, 2018, 9:48 pm

Quote from hoffy51 on April 28, 2018, 8:44 am

At what point does it become clear that Fernando Tatis, Jr is not going to be the Padres shortstop next year and a decision between Galvis and Guerra will need to be made?

Reality is starting to set in for Galvis, who, despite the hot start has a plummeting OBP and has one more extra-base hit than Clayton Richard on the year.

Guerra is striking out more often than Tatis.

Reality? Maybe I'm missing your point.  This is who he is: good field, a little speed and below average offense.  I thought that was the profile all along.

And if it's time to give up on Tatis maturing enough to contribute next year, then it's time to give up on Gore too since he can't stay healthy.

Did I read that Barry Bloom is trolling him on Twitter? Weird if true. Bad blood with his Dad?

Galvis started off hot at the plate this year and many in the Padres fanbase seemingly lost their minds and thought the first 2,400 plate appearances in his career weren't who he really is. You're right that his profile is good (not especially so) defense and bad offense.

My point was simply that neither Galvis nor Guerra are likely players for whom it's ever going to "become clear" a decision is needed.

Also, the idea that Tatis should be expected to be the starting shortstop for most of next season was a poor one two months ago.

And yes, Bloom wrote something stupid last year after watching Tatis for one game, and has decided that rather than acknowledge what everyone told him (which is, it was stupid), he's going to hang his hat on the stupid observation instead.

All I can say is I completely agree with everything you said above.  Thanks for the clarification.

If they do not resign Galvis, which I am not dead set against on a 2 yr deal, I could see Urias getting far more time at SS next year than Tatis who may not even be up before September 2019.

Quote from Cptjack on April 30, 2018, 7:54 pm

Quote from David Jay on April 27, 2018, 10:14 am Not a bad group to be watching!

While Reed's production thus far has been better, the underlying performance from Olivares is stronger across the board and Buddy's not going to continue to hit .500 on balls in play.

I'm not going to say he's going to continue at .500 BABIP, but there were certainly offseason mumbles over his swing change. The newfound power,  average, great basestealing,  great defense leave him in a much better prospect position than a  year ago.

Quote from fenn68 on May 1, 2018, 7:19 am

For the record ... don't think much of either Gettys or Reed as major prospects .... MAYBE can make a call-up 5th OF based on defense / speed.  For my perspective they are similar, consider:

Gettys (now 22) prior to his SR year in HS was considered a potential Top 10 pick as that 5 tool player. Contact issues in his senior year let him fall to the Padres in the 2nd round (#51) in 2014. Good Rookie League then poor first full season in FW followed very good LE in his second full season. However his 3rd full season REPEATING LE was poor (as is his start in SA).

Reed (now 23) prior to his JR year in COLLEGE was considered a potential Top 10 pick (some potentially #1) as that 5 tool player. Contact issues in his junior year let him fall to the Padres in the 2nd round (#48) in 2016. Good Short Season then a poor first full season in FW followed by a good start this year in LE. (note: I agree his BABIP is unsustainable and would add that his OPS at home is 1.314 BUT on the road a meager .688.

Bottom line ... neither has shown the hitting profile to project as a ML player. 4 excellent tools don't erase the lack of a hitting tool and neither should be a Top 30 prospect. However, every minor league team needs a CF and there is a very small chance they can develop a "serviceable" level of offense so ride with them.

Quote from David Jay on May 1, 2018, 9:08 am

Quote from fenn68 on April 30, 2018, 3:40 pm

I understand (from multiple reports) that Austin Allen is not a good defensive catcher ... but from a scouting perspective just how dysfunctional is that from the ML prospect perspective. Gary Sanchez had a bad defensive catcher rap and he is the #1 for the NYY because of his bat and the NYY seem happy (and winning). Is Allen's defense projected to be serviceable at the ML level since his bat appears to really be developing?

 

Allen's defense has improved, which is a credit to the amount of work he's put in both in and out of season. He's improved his body - gaining flexibility, seems to have faster twitch response, better weight - and his mechanics for receiving. He's still probably below-average, but it's a lot better than it was.

Last spring, I thought the most likely outcome was that he'd have to move off the plate at some point, and that his bat would come up a little short for first base. The bat, obviously, would play anywhere with the sort of production he has right now (though, clearly, he's not going to keep his OPS around 1.200). Even when he cools down, the improved K rate while he's maintained his walks and improved his power is a very positive sign for maintaining some of his results.

The level of defense you tolerate from a guy who can slug .550 is definitely different than what you take from a guy who hovers more around .475. He'll force the issue by maintaining the same approach.