Quote from David Jay on November 12, 2018, 9:20 am

BA should have their draft report cards for the NL West in the next few days. Figured I'd try to jump the gun on them...

Best pure hitter: Owen Miller

Best power: Nick Gatewood (Payton Smith may have better pure raw, but it's so far from being playable at this point, it doesn't really matter.)

Fastest runner: Xavier Edwards probably beats Juwaun Harris by a nose going home to first from the RH batter's box. Harris probably edges him out scoring from first.

Best defensive player: Edwards. His arm is only average, but his lateral movement and on-field instincts are just so good.

Best athlete: Harris

Best fastball: Dylan Coleman

Best secondary: Ryan Weathers (ch)

Best pro debut: I'll take Edwards over Miller, but both were quite impressive. In his very limited work, Nick Thwaits was impressive.

Most intriguing background: Depending on what you find most intriguing, Weathers (family history) Harris (two-sport star), Guilbe (backstory through high school)

Best late-round pick: Lee Solomon is going to have a ton of fans at every stop he makes. Likewise, Gabe Mosser.

The one who got away: Ben Abram, but he was never going to sign anyway. Ian Villers is the one that could look worst in a few years, but not being able to talk Antoine Kelly out of JuCo is the most surprising to me.

 

Quote from fenn68 on November 12, 2018, 10:02 am

• Fangraphs’ Craig Edwards attempts to estimate the value of entire farm systems in terms of WAR and free-agent dollars. By organizing the top 800 players in the minor leagues into tiers and making one WAR equal to $9MM based on their calculations of free agent values under the current CBA, Edwards has put together a table to show the rough free agent dollar value of each farm system. The Padres’ system, unsurprisingly, tops the charts at 50.9 Present-Day WAR worth $458MM, while the Mariners pull up the rear at 4.8 Present-Day WAR worth $43MM. Their tiering methodology and the prospect grading process is laid out in further detail here.

Quote from David Jay on November 12, 2018, 1:48 pm

If you haven't read the full piece by Edwards, you should do so.

Quote from Commie on November 12, 2018, 7:39 pm

Where do you folks think the following will start next year? My thoughts in parenthetical after each.

1. Gore (Hi-A if healthy but with innings limit)

2. Baez (AA) - show me more

3. Reed (AA) - show me AFL is real and that you can hit stuff. Potential star based upon presence. If you didn't see the AFL All -Star post game they teased the break with something along the lines of "Stay tuned we have a live interview with game MVP Buddy Reed. If you have heard frfrom him yet, stay tuned." He delivered . Very engaging with good game knowledge, etc. Like a Harold Reynolds minus the sexual harassment.

4. Miller (Hi A) with quick promo if masters it.

5. Weather's (SS A) can earn promo in 2nd half but continue to perform against better talent than you have ever faced first.

6. Mejia (AAA) - refine the D and see you in July or when Hedges hits the DL.

Quote from Brian Connelly on November 13, 2018, 7:29 am

Agree with all except Mejia on Padres, Weathers in Fort Wayne (but they might keep him back in EST to limit innings)

Quote from fenn68 on November 13, 2018, 9:47 am

Agree on Reed / Baez in AA and Gore in A+ but have:

Mejia with the Padres getting ML development time with ex-catcher Barajas (now the bench coach) as the tutor.

Weathers in FW since they teased with him for 3 games in 2018.

Owen Miller is the real question ... clearly an advanced hitter as shown by his FW work last season so logically to LE. If we consider Arias (Padres clearly want to develop his potential) and E.Ruiz as the LE SS/2B does Miller go to 3B or get in a DH rotation / INF rotation in LE? Seems too advanced to lag back in FW where Edwards / Marcano look to be the SS/2B combo given the Padres love of pushing the young high ceiling prospects.

Is there a possibility ... assuming his advanced bat is that good ... he gets stretched to SS in AA? He would be bumping (maybe) Cordoba since Tatis graduates up to AAA. I know that is a reach but the bat is the carrying tool and they did have him in AA for last season's playoffs. Long-shot but sometimes they come in.

Quote from David Jay on November 13, 2018, 10:27 am

When Weathers' season begins, it will be in Fort Wayne. Whether that's opening day like they did with Gore this year (which would be my bet), or mid-May like they did with Lawson and Thompson in 2017 (both were coming off injuries which makes this a poor comparison), his first competitive innings in 2019 will - barring health issue like happened with Morejon in 2017 - absolutely not be with Tri-City.

It's well within the realm of possibility that Miller will open in San Antonio.

If Mejia is still in the organization on opening day, he'll be on the big league roster.

Quote from Brian Connelly on November 13, 2018, 11:22 am

Quote from fenn68 on November 12, 2018, 10:02 am

• Fangraphs’ Craig Edwards attempts to estimate the value of entire farm systems in terms of WAR and free-agent dollars. By organizing the top 800 players in the minor leagues into tiers and making one WAR equal to $9MM based on their calculations of free agent values under the current CBA, Edwards has put together a table to show the rough free agent dollar value of each farm system. The Padres’ system, unsurprisingly, tops the charts at 50.9 Present-Day WAR worth $458MM, while the Mariners pull up the rear at 4.8 Present-Day WAR worth $43MM. Their tiering methodology and the prospect grading process is laid out in further detail here.

This is an interesting read.  It's nice to be able to, however abstractly, actually quantify how much "better" the best system is than the worst..... literally 10 times better.   I intuitively knew it was more than say 3 times better, but wouldn't have guessed that high.  Of course, Seattle is kind of an outlier.  Pads system "only" about 5 times "better" than 5th worst D-backs 🙂  Takeaways...

1)  Important to point out that Fangraphs player grading is much different than MLB.com... Top 20 picks overall in 60-70 range about the same, but MLB.com has next 80+ guys with "55" grades.  Fangraphs splits these into 55 AND 50.  MLB.com then has hundreds of guys with a 50 grade, Fangraphs has even less than that with a "45".   MLB.com's base "decent prospect" grade is 45, Fangraphs is 40.

2)  Wide gap between top 4-5 &  rest of MLB:  100 MM gap between #4 & #6 (more than the entire Farm value of the botton 7 teams!), with only Toronto 5o MM behind/ahead @ #5 spot.  Practically guarantees Pads will be in top 5 again next year.  Likely to fall from #1 with 4 of top 5 prospects (Paddack #5) likely graduates, but Padres depth prohibits most teams from having a chance of catching them; no way to "go big" in International signings like Padres did.

3)  3 NL West teams in bottom 8, where there is also  a wide gap:  over 35 MM between 7th (SF) & 8th (Rockies) worst Farms.  So an elite top 5 systems, 7 in the basement, other 18 in Middle all relatively close to each other.

3)  Mariners should sell off.... I live in Washington, so a lot of coverage about M's plans.  They simply have NO ammo for the trade market to try to compete with the likes of Boston, Houston, & now Oakland.  Not blind to how far behind CWS, Rays, & Toronto they are too in terms of a strong Farm/competing in a few years.   Last 4 World Series champs built from extremely strong farm systems.  Last WS winner not to was San Fran, who really looks like the NL version of Mariners to me.  Personally, I hope they do spend 400 MM on Bryce Harper.

4)  Timing & composition of Boston's trades might be good template for Pads.  Of course, Red Sox had way more $$ to work with, and hitting on prospects in their top 5 system 3 years running (14-16) was integral to success.  But so was trading from that strength, which (with graduations a huge part) took system all the way down to 2nd worst now .... but got the result every team is looking for.

Quote from fenn68 on November 13, 2018, 12:20 pm

By Benjamin Hill / MiLB.com | November 13, 2018 2:30 PM

In 2019, the Amarillo Sod Poodles will be standing on mounds and roaming the fields.

The Sod Poodles' name and logo were unveiled Tuesday afternoon, ending months of speculation regarding the identity of Amarillo's new Minor League team. The Sod Poodles will be the Double-A affiliate of the San Diego Padres, formerly the San Antonio Missions in the Texas League. The new team will play at a ballpark currently under construction in downtown Amarillo.

Per the team, Sod Poodles is a "pioneer's nickname for 'Prairie Dogs.'" This moniker emerged victorious in a "Name the Team" contest, triumphing over a quartet of other selections rooted in Amarillo's Texas Panhandle location: Boot Scooters, Bronc Busters, Jerky and Long Haulers.