Quote from sportwarrior on November 13, 2018, 12:55 pm

Quote from fenn68 on November 13, 2018, 12:20 pm

By Benjamin Hill / MiLB.com | November 13, 2018 2:30 PM

In 2019, the Amarillo Sod Poodles will be standing on mounds and roaming the fields.

The Sod Poodles' name and logo were unveiled Tuesday afternoon, ending months of speculation regarding the identity of Amarillo's new Minor League team. The Sod Poodles will be the Double-A affiliate of the San Diego Padres, formerly the San Antonio Missions in the Texas League. The new team will play at a ballpark currently under construction in downtown Amarillo.

Per the team, Sod Poodles is a "pioneer's nickname for 'Prairie Dogs.'" This moniker emerged victorious in a "Name the Team" contest, triumphing over a quartet of other selections rooted in Amarillo's Texas Panhandle location: Boot Scooters, Bronc Busters, Jerky and Long Haulers.

I am weirdly ok with this. We've already jumped the shark with Chihuahuas and that turned out alright, so why not?

Quote from David Jay on November 13, 2018, 1:04 pm

Quote from fenn68 on November 13, 2018, 12:32 pm

Any insight on Trevor Megill? Big RHP with some TJ in his history and only so-so minor league results for the Padres. Since I saw him listed somewhere as a potential Rule 5 protect ... most likely a throw-away comment ... but are we missing something with his stuff peaking (e.g. velocity) post-injury?

He will not be a factor in the Rule 5 process.

Quote from Brian Connelly on November 13, 2018, 5:45 pm

Quote from fenn68 on November 12, 2018, 10:02 am

• Fangraphs’ Craig Edwards attempts to estimate the value of entire farm systems in terms of WAR and free-agent dollars. By organizing the top 800 players in the minor leagues into tiers and making one WAR equal to $9MM based on their calculations of free agent values under the current CBA, Edwards has put together a table to show the rough free agent dollar value of each farm system. The Padres’ system, unsurprisingly, tops the charts at 50.9 Present-Day WAR worth $458MM, while the Mariners pull up the rear at 4.8 Present-Day WAR worth $43MM. Their tiering methodology and the prospect grading process is laid out in further detail here.

Geek alert!  You've been warned:   Fangraphs' analysis lends support to my theory that Preller's trade taking on 7+ MM of Phil Hughes' 2019 salary to gain the Compensatory round B (after 2nd rd) pick #74 was absolutely crappy.

This is nothing against Grant Little, who that pick turned into, and entirely depends on if he ends up making it to MLB & contributing.  But fundamentally this trade did not make sense for a number of reasons:

1)  Even if Preller was specifically targeting Little as the guy he wanted with this pick (exceedingly unlikely), the deal makes no sense.  MLB.com ranks Little #27 in Pads' deep system with a "45" overall grade... this translates into a "40" grade with Fangraphs:  i..e. outside of the top 300 overall prospects.  This translates to Little's 2018 value being 2 MM.   Even if you give him an exceedingly generous FG "40+" (he was not even in MLB.com's top 200 DRAFT prospects!) his "worth" only increases to 4MM.   Pads gained 812K in draft $... but they used it all (800K) on Little; which negated any additional "value" the $ could have potentially had....

2)  Of course, Pads didn't know who would be available @ #74.  But they do know there aren't going to be any Fangraphs "45" or better players available.  In theory, the $812K available could have directly led to Pads selecting Xavier Edwards who they knew they'd have to go above slot for (700K+ > 1.878MM slot)... but even then they mis-handled it.  Could have drafted Owen Miller @ 74 instead of 10 picks later, and saved an additional 100K under slot.  If available, at #84, I have a hard time believing Little DOESN'T sign for that slot amount (694.5K), or maybe slightly higher (as a College Soph, Little had leverage to return to school).  Just feels like Pads could have squeezed at least one more 125K+ signing out of the extra draft $.  Instead they HAD to go under slot at 3rd round and bare bones rounds 8-10 to create enough $ to get Edwards signed; largely BECAUSE of drafting Little.

3)  Could speculate that Pads thought there was an outside chance of turning Phil Hughes around with Balsley, but with their 1st hand experiences with Tyson Ross & Carter Capps coming off Thoracic outlet surgery, that would be in the "pipe dream" category.

4)  Trade simply did not fit Padres combination of ultra-deep system but limited MLB payroll.   This is what really burns me!  Little is the 26th(!) "40" grade guy (+20 guys with 45-65 grades) in the #1 system "worth" over 50MM $$ than the NEXT best system!  His 2-4MM value in the overwhelmingly best & deepest Farm system simply makes no difference in the big picture.  On the other hand, none of us know exactly what the Pads payroll limitations are, but we know for sure that the 7.25 MM being paid to Phil Hughes is a very significant part of it; ESPECIALLY given that TOTAL $ committed to contracts, arb eligible, and dead $ is about 70 MM.  Hughes alone is over 10% of this $.  There is no way to put a "positive" spin on how this $ being spent makes it unavailable to otherwise be spent on this year's team.  It impacts ability to possibly take on a big dead $ contract to help get a good player in trade, etc.  Even if he excels as a prospect, Little is a College soph who is probably 4-5 years out from MLB:  traded 7.5 MM for a guy who at earliest helps in 2021...

5)  SUMMARY:  I am a big Preller fan; and one of things I like best about him is he has proven very adept at finding "relative" value by thinking/acting outside the box.  I am sure that simply having that extra 800K available did have a positive impact on the Padres draft plans where you're dealing with unknowns....  but I can't get over a very cynical feeling that taking on this 7.5 MM was almost like "justification" to MLB itself for a payroll that could easily decline significantly from 2018 since team is "not ready" to compete in 2019.  Maybe an absolutist viewpoint:  ' Little might help in 2021+, but we're not going to win W.S. in 2019'.  This is true... but I still hate & disagree with it.

Quote from fenn68 on November 14, 2018, 7:32 am

I am not sure what Preller's thought process was in the Hughes trade unless he (his scouts) thought that there was more left in Hughes than anyone else did ... did not need this analysis to show that eating that level of money was not worth getting that low a pick (or probably any pick).

====

As for the analysis ... I would not take the "detail" as all that solid.

First the good, the Padres coming in #1 based on the same "weak" logic being applied to all 30 teams probably does fairly represent the Padres as the best farm system.

However, would not get locked into the evaluations of individual players or the mathematics that aggregate value. That is a lot of subjective elements (not necessarily reflective of the future) being masked by the illusion of mathematical precision. Whew!

Consider in 2015:

Guerra was a "50" and Padres #3 / MLB #76 prospect .... now zip but out of the same base there were a number of "45" evaluations that made the ML or upped their prospect stock:

Lamet (was #17) ...Castillo (was #23) ... Weick (was #26) ... Cordero (was #29) and all outperformed their projections. Then throw in Logan Allen who was a "45" at #18 is now a "55" at #8 (MLB #76).

Point is those ratings / rankings are flawed on the individual basis ... plus generally on low for the "non-elite" prospects in their 1st / 2nd year pre-development / pre-full season performance.

Have no idea where Little settles out at in 3 years but IF he pans out to ML starter quality ... Preller gets "lucky" but the deal still would be illogical.

Quote from Brian Connelly on November 14, 2018, 1:28 pm

Well put FENN.  I just remember reading at least one (more?) posts somewhere that it was a "genius" move b/c of the potential future WAR vs. current cost... think writer was assuming additional draft $ would result in indirectly getting more than 1 guy.

Of course the Fangraphs methodology as well as prospect grading isn't perfect, but they've taken averages over long periods of time to account for high fallout rate.  "40" grade guys aren't all worth 0.2 WAR; one guy ends up being worth 4 WAR, and 19 guys zero WAR @ MLB (cup of coffee or never make it).

I tend to think of the $ spent as just being added to Hosmer's already dubious (FWIW, I was in favor of the signing) massive contract at the front end just to recoup the lost pick.  The Hughes trade would have made way more sense for an out of the running top 50% payroll team headed towards a deadline selloff that needed to improve their Farm depth.  Guessing at least a few teams might have been in at more reasonable valuations like 2, 3, maybe 5 max MM

Quote from 3fingersplit on November 15, 2018, 9:44 am

What is a "Sod Poodle " ?

Why did the Padres leave San Antonio ?

Quote from Booster SD on November 15, 2018, 10:09 am

Quote from 3fingersplit on November 15, 2018, 9:44 am

What is a "Sod Poodle " ?

Why did the Padres leave San Antonio ?

San Antonio got a AAA team if I recall. And a sod poodle in another name for a prairie dog.

Quote from fenn68 on November 27, 2018, 7:29 am

• Australian righty Todd Van Steensel tweeted last night that he’s signed a minor league pact with the Padres. The 27-year-old has spent the past six seasons in the Twins organization, where he’s topped out at the Double-A level. Van Steensel has a career 2.11 ERA with 9.4 K/9 against 4.1 BB/9 in 110 2/3 innings at that level, with all but two of his 66 Double-A appearances coming out of the bullpen.

Quote from David Jay on November 28, 2018, 11:14 am

In addition to Van Steensel and Jacob Scavuzzo, the Padres have also signed the following MLFAs so far this winter:

INF Ivan Castillo

1B Seth Mejias-Brean

C Alex Burg

RHP Tyler Higgins

LHP Ryan Bollinger