Quote from fenn68 on May 9, 2024, 9:31 am

Don't see trades of Cronenworth or Bogaerts in the near term. IF anyone wanted Bogarts (a 31 year old failed SS for another 9 years) Padres would have to eat most of the contract which negates any short term value of trading him. His contract design is to have major productivity in the early years and accept decline later and that early benefit has (will) pass leaving only the decline years to pick-up.

If Cronenworth maintains his early work through 2024 ... probably tradable but what do they have to rely on to replace him at a significantly lower price point for 2025? Zip and don't want to pursue a potential last run at the playoffs with a gamble on a patch work replacement.

For me, 2024 is hold where you are now then at the trade deadline consider adds to cover the biggest needs then with "rentals" using the about $10MM room under the CBT. I do think they will be well in the playoff mix at that time if not in one of the final wild card slots.

2025? Sort of depends on how 2024 plays out but seeing little else around (and a low cost price) ... first try to re-sign Profar and Kim unless they are out of the price point. Agree that Profar will not have a great market given age and history no matter how well he does in 2024 ... but given what he seems to provide to the Padres ... giving him the "extra year" (maybe 3) at $8ish works for both sides. Not sure they have a replacement for 2025 (unless Pauley turns it on).

Not sure what to do about Kim ... no 2025 replacement at SS ... not sure on a "low cost" replacement via FA / trade) ... so need to make the effort. DeVries maybe (if he makes it) four years out ... so a 3-5 year deal might keep the AAV down. I had him pegged around the Lee deal but his offense is suffering and don't think his defense will push his price that much. so maybe creative in the lower teens for dollars over 4 years with opt in / opt outs. Padres need him as a bridge to DeVries and he is a team/fan favorite which adds to his value in SD.

As I suggested in another post ... after 2025 (or during 2026) Padres will likely be in the position of letting FA go, making the trades they can (eg Cronenworth, et al), and setting up the organization (players and staff) for the expected post CBA strike / lockout in 2027. By the end of the labor dispute ... the internal prospects should be on path to take over the ML Padres future fortunes.

Quote from dusty on May 9, 2024, 11:41 am

I honestly don't see the CBT being an issue outside of this season. I think they will go over it for next season if they feel they need to or have an opportunity to acquire or keep talent. I truly believe resetting the CBT has more to do with Sasaki, talent in the next draft, and/or a combination of the two - and possibly also the accelerated penalties of going over the limit in consecutive seasons.

Quote from fenn68 on May 9, 2024, 12:19 pm

Quote from dusty on May 9, 2024, 11:41 am

I honestly don't see the CBT being an issue outside of this season. I think they will go over it for next season if they feel they need to or have an opportunity to acquire or keep talent. I truly believe resetting the CBT has more to do with Sasaki, talent in the next draft, and/or a combination of the two - and possibly also the accelerated penalties of going over the limit in consecutive seasons.

Avoiding the ever increasing penalties combined with MLB pressuring the Padres to get their debt servicing within league limit rules made more problematic with the loss of TV revenues is the driver.

Forbes had the Padres as one of the few teams running at a loss … by about the amount they have dropped payroll.

Even Siedler last year said expect the Padres to sit about #10 in team payrolls as a normal level … that is about where they are now. That was with Siedler who clearly was willing to spend in the near term … don’t see any of the new ownership going the big spending route.

I see a renewed effort on maximizing the spending on international FA (Sasaki) and positioning in the draft … might just see them letting a lot of FA walk with a QO for the extra draft pick while staying under the CBT so was not to drop slotting position.

I stick with shooting for winning in 2024-25 without making more commitments for 2026 and beyond and restructure as the environment dictates in the reality of a new TV deal and the shadow of the lockout / strike in 2027.

Side: Boras is Cease’s agent … so don’t expect him in the future.

Quote from Stergios on May 9, 2024, 6:39 pm

Quote from Randy Manese on May 9, 2024, 8:29 am

I think we can count on 4 current position players to be with the team all the way through 2025 - Tatis, Machado, Merrill and Campusano.  Possible FA's include Profar and Kim (post 2024) and Arraez (post 2025).  Possible trades include Cronenworth and Bogaerts.

Kim is probably going to have to give the Padres a San Diego discount because his re-signing (if after a decent offensive season) is likely to push the Padres close to or over the 1st CBT threshold.  If he's looking at something upward of 18M/year, like his buddy Lee, then it may be out of the question to re-sign him; if the CBT comes out around 14M/year, it may be possible.  We really don't have a better defensive alternative in the system and while his offensive numbers on the surface don't look great, behind those numbers are stats that support a better outcome for the rest of the year.  Kim would be difficult to replace if we want to compete in 2025.  Maybe we'll get some creative re-structuring by a couple of vets to do this?

Profar is hitting like the projected superstar everyone thought he'd be when he was a teenager.  Probably won't last but likely give him a significant boost (up to 7-8M?) in salary; not sure other teams would be convinced with a one year resurgence for a 31+ veteran and he loves playing with the Padres so Padres probably have an edge in keeping him.

The minor league discussion piece for 2024 is that only Pauley and Rosario (and maybe some of the AAAA players in El Paso) are the only possible position player adds to the team.  They could eventually replace Wade and Solano but we won't know until near the end of the season whether Pauley has developed enough to replace Profar full-time.  Sullivan or Plawecki could likely replace Higashioka at a lower cost.

Staying with the 2024 season, have to see if Mazur and Wolf can contribute as SPs.  They are the furthest along despite the hype for Snelling and Lesko.  The bullpen can absorb the loss of Peralta and his 4.25M salary and bullpens are volatile from year to year anyway.  I like what I've seen of  Sandridge and Omar Cruz (and even Blanchard) from the left side and there are some good arms coming up from the right side.

That's my strategy for 2024.  Discuss 2025 and beyond later.

How do you plan on finding a trade partner for X?  Are you assuming that he’ll end up with solid numbers for the season?

Quote from Randy Manese on May 9, 2024, 11:06 pm

I mentioned X and Croney as "possible" players to be moved after the 2024 season only because of financial reasons.  This was based on the need to pay Cease, King and Arraez fairly big bucks (plus others with fairly modest increases) in arbitration and the probability of prioritizing re-signing Kim.  If the requirement by Padres ownership is to stay below the first level of the CBT, it's going to be very difficult to do so without shedding some salary.  Currently, I don't see the minuses overcoming the plusses to salary.

The X we have seen so far this year will be hard to move, however, from 2018 to 2022 in Boston he averaged 30% above league average in wRC+ and even last year with SD he was at 20% above league average.  IF he gets back to his "norm" or close to it, there might be some team that will be willing to go for him IF SD picks up a good chunk of his salary over the years he has left on his contract.  All you need is one buyer!    Think of it as another Hosmer penalty.  However, the salary that if freed up will allow us to make other moves.  Don't have a clue on who that would be and is just wild speculation on my part if the Padres are desperate.

More than likely, however, SD keeps him even with a good year so then we have to look at another way to fill up the rest of the team and that may be moving Cronenworth.  His contract is more affordable and he can play a number of defensive positions every well; this year's offense is a bonus but like Profar, probably not sustainable.  If we can move Croney, then we can pay everyone else with the savings plus what we'll have under the CBT for 2025.   Arraez moves to 1b for 2025.  Don't like to do that but until I see more money available, I don't see a lot of choices.  We make another try for the playoffs in 2025 and then the window closes while we re-group in 2026 with younger players and possibly a higher CBT thresholds under a newly negotiated MLB Contract, money from the re-naming of Petco Park, a better television deal, and the end of paying off Hosmer!

My big hope for the Padres at the end of the 2024 season is to sign Japanese RHP Roki Sasaki in January 2025.  IF that happens, he and Mazur could be a big part of the rotation for the next 6 years while we wait for Snelling and Lesko to join them.  Around 2025-2026, that's when we also should see the impact of Salas, DeVries and possibly others from the 2024, 2025 and previous drafts and international signings.  The minor league cupboard may look a little thin right now, but you never know who is going to turn the corner.

Quote from Randy Manese on May 11, 2024, 7:44 am

Watched Snelling very closely yesterday and after the 1st inning, he was much better.  However, it seems the Padres are having him work on his change-up and he has given up a very effective curve ball for more of a sweeper.  These changes may have effected his FB command, because he was all over the place in the 1st inning; moreover, the velocity of his FB seemed a tick or two slower.  All these adjustments apparently have not come easy for him this year but we have to remember the Padres are trying to develop him for the future and not just to get AA batters out.  As the day wore on, you could see flashes of potential with these other pitches but location is still ways off, including the aforementioned FB location.  Not concerned as he's gotten better recently but hope that by mid-summer he will have locked in all those adjustments and look like he did when pitching at lower minor league levels.  Still very young but looks like he has the willingness to learn and get better even though his stats aren't what you would like at the moment.

Quote from Randy Manese on May 11, 2024, 10:00 pm

Isaiah Lowe's hat doesn't fit well and he looks chunky in his uniform, but the guy can pitch!  Struck out 9 today, 7 by swing and miss.  I was trying to chart his K's and got pretty much an equal distribution among swinging strikes, called strikes and foul balls (about 14 each), so he does fill up the zone.  Got squeezed several times by the ump but threw a nice FB, a sweeper with good movement and a developing change.  Location still needs to improve, but getting better game by game.

Quote from MrPadre19 on May 13, 2024, 1:20 pm

Not a lot of excitement down on the Farm so far this season.

A few bright spots but over all it's been an underwhelming start.

 

Quote from Randy Manese on May 13, 2024, 3:32 pm

Very true but it is a very young/inexperienced farm system for the most part.  When I watch the games, I look for the little flashes of development to show me the player is moving in the right direction.  It may be just Lesko, I believe for the first time this year, not giving up more walks than K's, or Jagger Haynes and Isaiah Lowe being stretched out to 4 innings.  For hitters, I'm hoping to see less chasing of pitches out of the zone and not being so fooled on breaking stuff.  Oftentimes its very painful to watch but there are some guys out there who are going to be major leaguers - it just takes a lot of patience and commitment on the part of the player.  I think as the 2024 season goes on, we'll see a lot better stats and results from these minor league teams.