Quote from fenn68 on August 19, 2023, 5:42 am

Looking to 2024 and considering the potential Padre need for SP/RP begin to wonder the near term potential that  one (or more) of the internal prospects could fill a role as the #5/6 SP ... maybe not to open the season but at some point. If the Padres see that near term potential that may influence their winter strategy of FA/trades. On one hand, making the jump as a pitcher from AA to the ML is not uncommon but on the other hand none of the prime prospect have yet to spend much (if any) time in AA. We have seen that Preller can be aggressive (see Weathers, Wolf) but that is not necessarily a good thing.

What are the chances (and when could we expect) of the near term prospects landing in 2024:

#3. Snelling (L) ... still 19 and only a partial A+ season (probably too soon until late in 2024 at the best)

#6  Iriate ... limted AA but could impact at some point as a SP or RP

#7  Mazur ... see Iriate

#16 Bergert ... could he be the dark horse given more AA time as a SP with success after a very successful A+

Relying on young still developing prospects with limited exposure to the upper minors is a big risk for a team that plans to contend ... but still has to be considered as the Padres have to fill a roster with likely only Musgrove and Darvish locked down at this point.

Are any or these prospects candidates for that #5/6 to start the season? Best for a mid-season call-up as a SP or RP? Only Iriate will be on the 40 man roster (add to protect from Rule 5 others need not be added).

Quote from Randy Manese on August 19, 2023, 10:32 am

Of those listed, there are several reasons why Bergert could be more than a dark horse for a bottom of the rotation spot.  Firstly, he's greatly improved both his hits per 9 innings rate and his HR given up rate this year compared to 2022.  Dropping from over 10 hits per 9 to just over 6 and from 1.6 HRs per 9 to less than 0.5 is quite an improvement.  Moreover, he's been stretched out over 100 IP last year and will surely reach that mark this year.  It is true his walk rate has slightly creeped up but still his WHIP has dropped from 1.61 last year to under 1.20 this year.

I like his mix of pitches and he generally is around the strike zone with an average of slightly more than 16 pitches per inning, so he can get through 5 innings.  If he finishes at San Antonio well and has a healthy winter, then he's my top choice to make the 2024 rotation from those listed.

I like Iriarte as a RP and he may make the 2024 squad in that role from the outset.  He eventually could be a SP but is more volatile over longer periods even though his stuff is better than Bergert's.  Mazur and Snelling need just a little more time in the minors and still need to see if Mazur's mix plays at the upper levels given his velocity is good but not great; if he adds a little weight/strength over the winter, that could be the turning point.  My thoughts, however, is eventually Snelling will pass him as ready for the show - he is that good and just needs to keep healthy and get a little more flexibility in that body of his.

 

Quote from Randy Manese on August 19, 2023, 12:27 pm

Headed to Lake Elsinore to watch the double header today.  If Storm can sweep, still have a chance to catch Inland Empire in the last regular season series.  They should get a couple of needed bats when the ACL ends their season on Tuesday and I hope they have enough tonight, both hitting and pitching, to send me home a winner!

Quote from fenn68 on August 19, 2023, 3:12 pm

Any scouting on the Padres’ ACL prospect Juan Murillo … young corner OF out of Cuba (his 21st birthday today!).

Thought he had a shot at LE after his 2022 in the ACL at age 19 … 113 PA (308/383/481) and  10 SB.

Back in the ACL in 2023 at age 20 … 141 PA (290/369/467) … seemed worthy of a LE look earlier. Anything in the scouting holding him back?

Quote from Randy Manese on August 19, 2023, 10:39 pm

Recall that Murillo was signed as an infielder but he has never played the infield for the Padres only the corner OF spots.  Haven't seen him in person but given his inf background and stolen base record, should have decent speed for the corners and this year has 8 OF assists.  He's had another solid year at the plate but I noticed that sometimes he's out of the regular line-up for 3-4 days at a time even though he seemed to be in the middle of a hot streak with the bat.

My guess is that he has had some nagging injuries that has kept him out of the line-up from time to time and possibly a call-up to Lake Elsinore.  The primary reason, however, may be that LE needed to go through a number of older OF prospects they drafted or signed as free agents.  Fabian and Murphy moved up to Ft. Wayne; Zavala and Robertson (when healthy) have been solid with Zavala a possible star in the making.  They also had to play Vogt and Karpathios and wanted to see how Bush, Jr. would do at a higher level.  When the ACL season ends on Tuesday, they could  bring up Murillo but with an already crowded infield and fighting for a pennant repeat, they likely will wait until 2024 and bring him up with Montesino (who could play 1b),  a rehabbing Salinas, 1st rounder Head, Beltre and holdover Bush, if Bush does not maintain his hot hitting over the rest of the season - he seems to be cooling off and is hitting more ground balls  and striking out a lot more lately.

Quote from Randy Manese on August 19, 2023, 10:54 pm

In Lake Elsinore tonight, got another very good performance from Enmanuel Pinales.  Pinales was nothing special in his debut in the Dominican in 2022 and even this year in the ACL he had an ERA north of 7.00. However, if you look deeper into the numbers this year,  you see a much improved BB to K ratio.  Pinales has been lights out since they brought him up to LE and you have to give pitching coach Eshelman many kudos for losing his entire starting rotation (Snelling, Krob, Baez, Williams (traded), Haynes (injured), Lowe (injured), Castro (injured), but still keeping the team in competition by developing guys like Pinales, Jose Reyes, Mendez and a rehabbing Lesko.  Dark horses coming from the ACL may be the rehabbing Nett and draftee Gustin to lend a hand to the starting rotation.

Pinales is basically a two pitch pitcher with a fastball and slider.  He kept everything down and was more side to side than up and down, catching the corners.  Since his FB is fairly straight, he has to stay down in the zone and hope that upper cut swing that most batters have these days keeps the barrel away from the ball.  Physically, looks like a maxed out version of Henry Baez, but doesn't have the same toolset.

Nice sweep by the Storm to keep in the hunt for a back to back playoff opportunity.

Quote from Jeremy Hill on August 20, 2023, 3:43 pm

https://twitter.com/sdutSanders/status/1693391333740933418

Quote from Jeremy Hill on August 20, 2023, 3:45 pm

Salas and Snelling to AA is pretty wild. Lots of playoff reinforcements for The Missions.

Quote from Jeremy Hill on August 20, 2023, 5:21 pm

Some more promotions being reported now. Griffin Doersching, Tyler Robertson and Devin Ortiz also went from The Storm to the Tincaps. Romeo Sanabria went from the Complex League to The Storm. There might be more that I missed.