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#2171 · October 7, 2022, 8:39 am
Peoria is the only undefeated team thus far in the AFL and Padres' players have contributed to that record. Merrill flashing his potential although he's committed a couple of errors already - he's usually very sure-handed. Except for Guerrero, our rehabbing pitchers and Jacob/Lugo have shown well. Ornelas is either a Rule 5 or Free Agent in November, depending upon whether he was signed in July 2016 or March 2017 - I've seen both in print; if FA, then I think he elects to move on. Cedeno did fairly well at LE and has promise but likely not enough to be protected on the 40-man. With their injury history, doubt much interest in Guerrero or Lincoln, but Lugo might draw attention and so he might be pitching for a spot on the 40 man as well as Contreras trying to keep his spot. We'll see how the remainder of the AFL season goes and wish our Padres' contingent well.
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#2172 · October 7, 2022, 8:53 am
Keep in mind the RP seem to be the hot item for teams in Rule 5 … especially ones that may be “under the radar” but have had good scouting reports from the past. Basically if they show the “stuff” … could be a taken BUT the question becomes will the be kept or returned and that has to be part of the Padres decision analysis.
I would think Lugo will get protected since he can be logically projected to be a call-up option for the Padres in 2023 (have to consider the alternatives in the mix). Outside chance even Guerrero … he had the stuff just not sure how he is throwing post injury. Lincoln probably no given the very limited experience.
Should be ample room on the 40 with the FA and potential DFA candidates.
#2173 · October 7, 2022, 9:13 am
Quote from fenn68 on October 7, 2022, 8:53 amKeep in mind the RP seem to be the hot item for teams in Rule 5 … especially ones that may be “under the radar” but have had good scouting reports from the past. Basically if they show the “stuff” … could be a taken BUT the question becomes will the be kept or returned and that has to be part of the Padres decision analysis.
I would think Lugo will get protected since he can be logically projected to be a call-up option for the Padres in 2023 (have to consider the alternatives in the mix). Outside chance even Guerrero … he had the stuff just not sure how he is throwing post injury. Lincoln probably no given the very limited experience.
Should be ample room on the 40 with the FA and potential DFA candidates.
I can see Pads protecting some BP arms and maybe even Ornelas (if rule 5) and maybe putting together a package enticing enough to pry away a Stephenson *C/1B/DH* type.. can a SP Conteeras + SP Wethers (dad played for Reds)..+ CAMPUSANO + Lugo for example be enticing enough for Reds .. fits their timetable and $$ uptick of mlb club a bit better as Stephenson will soon require big $$ (2024 or so).. we clear 4 40 spots potentially +1 ..
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#2174 · October 7, 2022, 9:41 am
Quote from Henry Silvestre on October 7, 2022, 9:13 amQuote from fenn68 on October 7, 2022, 8:53 amKeep in mind the RP seem to be the hot item for teams in Rule 5 … especially ones that may be “under the radar” but have had good scouting reports from the past. Basically if they show the “stuff” … could be a taken BUT the question becomes will the be kept or returned and that has to be part of the Padres decision analysis.
I would think Lugo will get protected since he can be logically projected to be a call-up option for the Padres in 2023 (have to consider the alternatives in the mix). Outside chance even Guerrero … he had the stuff just not sure how he is throwing post injury. Lincoln probably no given the very limited experience.
Should be ample room on the 40 with the FA and potential DFA candidates.
I can see Pads protecting some BP arms and maybe even Ornelas (if rule 5) and maybe putting together a package enticing enough to pry away a Stephenson *C/1B/DH* type.. can a SP Conteeras + SP Wethers (dad played for Reds)..+ CAMPUSANO + Lugo for example be enticing enough for Reds .. fits their timetable and $$ uptick of mlb club a bit better as Stephenson will soon require big $$ (2024 or so).. we clear 4 40 spots potentially +1 ..
Can’t see that being the best option for CINN. Would guess if they wanted to deal Stephenson they could get a better deal from one of the may teams that need a good hitting catcher with good defense who is under control for four more years and currently at league minimum.
Add the trade value of Contreras, Weathers, Lugo is virtually zero since most teams have similar lurking in their minor league system. Throw in at best.
#2175 · October 8, 2022, 3:02 pm
https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2022-in-season-prospect-list/summary?sort=-1,1&pg=0
Hassell III (Nats) drops to 65
Merrill moves all the way up to #22
James Wood up to #9 good for the kid
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#2176 · October 8, 2022, 3:47 pm
In a little over a month from now, i.e., 5 days after the conclusion of the World Series, going to be a lot of activity in MLB as they set major and minor league rosters prior to the Rule 5 draft and MLB/MiLB free agency. Padres will be an interesting to follow not only at the major league level but in the minors because they have so many upcoming Free Agents (FA) and Rule 5 eligibles. For example, on the El Paso roster of their 15 non-40 man roster pitchers, only 5 are not FA and all 5 are Rule 5 eligible-Cosgrove, Fox, Lugo, Quezada and Waldron. Likewise of their 14 position players, only Kerner is neither a FA or Rule 5; only 3 of the remaining 13 are not FA and all are Rule 5 eligible - Cantu, Dale and Ornelas (if not a FA).
As I understand it, Padres can protect (reserve) up to 38 players on their AAA from the Rule 5 draft - MLB and minor league phase. They have about 30 others from AA to the ACL that could be protected including some that had solid years at he lower levels like Fabian and Nerwilian Cedeno. They also have a ton of potential minor league free agents, including guys like Connor Hollis, Carlos Luis, Yorman Rodriguez, etc. who could be re-signed but may still be subject to Rule 5. I'll let someone else interpret that part of the roster protection but the point is, expect a lot of turnover in the Padres minor league system and very tough decisions to be made (and a lot of luck along with that!).
#2177 · October 8, 2022, 6:01 pm
Not sure about the rules on setting the minor league rosters at this point ... always under the impression that the 38 AAA rostered players could be anyone in the minors and basically make those the next most valued players (Rule 5 eligible) only subject to the ML phase.
Now we may have a different view of the next most valuable that they put on the AAA roster but ... in terms of real ML prospects should be able to put them on AAA roster. That step of another team taking a player (and keeping them on their ML roster) is a big call so will odds not great to lose some of the more fringe types.
Actually, teams sometimes drop a AAA type to AA and are OK with them being taken in the minor league phase ... usually someone they would release anyway in ST.
The last time I looked ... actually did not seem to be too many MiL FA types (some could be resigned and a load will be on the market from other teams). System did have a lot of Rule5 eligible ... but realistically few (if any) will be taken depending on who is added to the 40 man.
Still, see the Padres trying to sign a good number of minor league FA to upgrade from the less productive Rule 5 types who will get released.
#2178 · October 11, 2022, 3:50 pm
Jackson Merrill rakes 🚀🎥 @Storm_Baseball pic.twitter.com/Cd2X6tEHgt
— Robert Escalante (@Mr_Robert9) September 1, 2022
I think he will be in SD in 2024 (similar to the Braves duo of Harris and Grissam.. who jumped a few levels fast)
#2179 · October 11, 2022, 6:06 pm
Quote from Henry Silvestre on October 11, 2022, 3:50 pmhttps://twitter.com/Mr_Robert9/status/1565210246724759554?t=kbu4wcIOArImMkBWxcmnRw&s=19
I think he will be in SD in 2024 (similar to the Braves duo of Harris and Grissam.. who jumped a few levels fast)
2024 might be a toss up based since Machado, Kim, and Cronenworth will still be here … unless one is traded. If they are here … do the Padres want Merrill on “part-time” or playing as a regular. As it is, 2023 should see him in A+/AA (hopefully). So, a 2024 start in AAA might be the route.
If he is really hot … maybe some shuffling of players to cover DH/1B if they don’t sign someone soon to be the 1B.
#2180 · October 18, 2022, 5:51 am
Merrill leading the AFL in hits...hitting a cool .366
Tirso Ornelas 3-4 yesterday with a SB