Quote from fenn68 on September 19, 2021, 10:57 am

Taylor Kohlway (AAA, OF/1B). Never considered a ML prospect ... drafted late round in 2016 from a small college. Not much power ... not much speed ... just turned 27.

However, has hit (OBP) well in the minors ... low K rate ... plays all three OF slots and 1B. Currently leading the PCL in BA and near the top on OBP. Rule 5 eligible.

Padres ... in 2022 ... with the DH (potentially) and Pham gone .... could Kohlway be that LHH bench piece with some versatility? As it stands ... O'Grady is on the 40 man but has not hit for the Padres and is struggling in AAA ... Kohlway has the same defensive profile ... less power but maybe better on-base skills.

Low chance Kohlway is taken in the Rule 5 (but the scouts may think differently on a AAA bat who is hitting) ... so do the Padres expose him or protect him (don't think he will be a 6 year minor league FA). Could be a low cost useful bench piece.

Quote from Randy Manese on September 20, 2021, 10:53 am

Unless something unexpected happens, our starting OF in 2022 will be Profar, Grisham and Myers.  On any given day,  these guys can look awfully good, but there are long stretches where they are just awful.

Profar is sure to exercise his player option and unless he can be traded is on the team and will give you a slightly less than league average performance both offensively and defensively for the position.  Grisham did not show the growth on a consistent basis that was expected of him and regressed in all areas of hitting production; how much of that was injury-driven is not known but looked far too passive at the plate and not hunting pitches to be aggressive with.  Not yet arbitration eligible, still has the ability to be a better than average overall OF; Padres are hoping this year will be his last year below expectations.  Myers in last year of contract and unlikely 2023 option will be picked up.  Could be traded since still has coveted skills, however, he too was injured and that balky knee is a cause of concern - DH material for AL team or Padres if NL adopts.

With the above, don't think Kohlwey is the answer behind this group.  Abrams is more likely if moved to OF (although he hasn't played that position in professional ball) but he may need a year or at least 1/2 a year at AAA to show he's fully recovered from injuries and can handle better pitching.  If Abrams can maintain his speed and OBP acumen, could be moved to CF with Grisham going to a corner slot.  More likely scenario is that Padres acquire a ready to break-out OF or an OF with a solid track record but may be undervalued - much like we thought we'd be getting with Pham.  Hitters, especially AL hitters, typically have a tough time carrying their stats to PETCO and the NL, but hopefully we can land one either by FA or trade.  Kohlwey did well for a 27 year old in a hitters league but need to take that success with a huge grain of salt.  At best, it seems he could be a 5th OF but probably will not be on the upcoming 40-man.   Ona is also a long-shot but limited defensively; not sure that he deserves to maintain his spot on 40 man but with Pham, Marisnick and O'Grady coming off, probably will.

Esteury Ruiz could be a surprise add and Agustin Ruiz may be even a bigger surprise add to keep one or both from Rule 5 exposure.   True OF prospects (outside of converting Abrams to OF) like 2-3 years away - Hassell and possibly Mears or Wood, the latter two must cut down K  rate.  Still outside hope for Ornelas, who finished strong and showed some flashes of being a hitter after a couple of very tough years at the plate.  Other possible OF prospects are way down in the DSL - Montesino, Zavala, Beltre and Cordero - will be great if even one of these makes it to the high minors.

I'm hoping for another trade with Seattle, who is loaded with top tier OF prospects - unlikely to get Rodriguez but Kelenic would be a great acquisition.  Otherwise, we shall see what happens in an expect off-season of turmoil with MLB and the new CBA and a shaking up to some degree within the Padres organization.

Quote from Randy Manese on September 24, 2021, 6:12 pm

Player list for instructs interesting in several ways.  Most came from ACL and Lake Elsinore, but a few Rule 5 eligibles who were late season adds to Ft. Wayne from Lake Elsinore also made it.

Gore and Martinez seem obvious locks for the 40 man as both played at El Paso and represent the most ready LH and RH starting pitchers in the organization.  Kopps and Abrams will get long looks but don't have to be added to the 40 man unless they make the major league team out of spring training; more than likely both will start at El Paso but have a chance to be added to the 40 man on or before mid-season.

Of those remaining Rule 5 eligibles, C Valenzuela's break-out offensive season makes him tops among the position players to be added to the 40 man, followed by less likely adds C Vizcarra, OF Solarte and INF/OF Dale, in that order.  Vela, Perez and Morales are all LH pitchers who'll get a long look because of the lack of LH relief pitching at the upper levels of the minors; however, none are likely to be drafted in December so will not be added to the 40 man.

Arizona Fall League will be the next window to see who else might be added.

Quote from Randy Manese on September 26, 2021, 12:30 am

Martinez showed why he belongs on the 40 man today with a very solid performance.  Looked like he did in San Antonio with the confidence and poise required of a starter and had the ability to work out of the few jams that presented themselves tonight.   He could make another start in El Paso's last week of play, but why?  Martinez has already pitched 120 innings, which is almost 80 more than his highest in 2019.  I think he's shown what he can do, getting better with every start in AAA.  My hope is they shut him down to avoid possible injury and send him to instructs.  You want him to be able to go around 150 innings next year, so keep that arm safe.

Martinez should be a valued depth piece next year and could be one of the first call-ups when an injury occurs or one of starters just needs an additional day of rest.  Hopefully, he, Morejon, Gore and Weathers will give San Diego the quality depth it lacked this year when virtually all the expected back-ups got injured, then all the starters got injured (except Musgrove) and some of these same pitchers I just listed weren't ready to compete at the highest level.  Knehr got valuable experience, Crismatt surprised at times, and Baez (when fully recovered) could also be a possible starter later in the year.

Despite the disappointment of not making the playoffs, I'm hoping our starters can come back healthy and IF SO, the rotation of Darvish, Snell, Clevinger, Musgrove and either Paddack or Lamet (if neither is not the new closer!) should keep us in the thick of things all year.   Expect a lot of action off the field between now and April 2022, not only for the Padres but for all of major league baseball!

 

Quote from Randy Manese on October 15, 2021, 7:11 pm

At the very lowest of the Padres' minor league teams, one pitcher and one hitter caught my eye and didn't get much press or placed on 30 man prospect lists.  Elvis Saba is a pitcher who is a little old for a prospect (much like Lamet was when he signed) but was the only pitcher to be promoted from the Dominican Summer League to the Arizona Complex League during the season.  Eddy Beltre showed great top of the order speed and some power and was competing head to head with Montesino, Zavala and Acosta as the best hitter on the roster until injuries forced him to miss about 1/2 the season.  Beltre will turn 18 in April and should start at Arizona Complex League;  Saba will be 22 in May 2022 and should be aggressively placed at Lake Elsinore.  Saba is a ground ball over fly ball type of pitcher yet struck out over 10.5/9 innings while averaging just 1 walk over the same.

My sleepers to dream on for 2022.

Quote from fenn68 on November 15, 2021, 1:54 pm

Padres' minor league FA:

San Diego Padres

OF John Andreoli
LHP Joe Beimel
RHP Aaron Brooks
LHP Daniel Camarena
2B Ivan Castillo
SS Allen Cordoba
RHP Miguel Diaz
LHP Brady Feigl
SS Pedro Florimon
RHP Jordan Humphreys
2B Gosuke Katoh
LHP Jerry Keel
OF Patrick Kivlehan
OF Brian O'Grady
C Kyle Overstreet
RHP Alex Powers
LHP James Reeves
C Webster Rivas
C Wynston Sawyer
RHP Austin Smith
RHP Tyler Viza
LHP Luke Westphal

Quote from fenn68 on November 15, 2021, 2:07 pm

They may have resigned Wester Rivas since he is the only one on the above list still on a Padre minor league roster.

Quote from Randy Manese on December 24, 2021, 1:25 pm

The minor league player I want to see in person is Jackson Merrill and I'm expecting him to be on a very strong Lake Elsinore team in 2022.  The reason why is that Merrill, just a year or so ago, was only about 5:11 and 150 pounds and a lower level prospect.  He now is over 6:03 and may still grow to 6:04 and has got to be close to 200-205 pounds.  With a growth spurt like that and if he gained corresponding strength without losing bat speed, he could become a legitimate power source.  He may eventually outgrow SS and move to 3b and could be the eventual replacement for Machado at 3b, if he grows into his body and progresses as expected.  It seems he has a much higher ceiling than Hudson Potts.  If he gets anywhere close to the Jung brothers in terms of batting prowess, it will have been a steal in the 1st round.  Hoping for the best!

Quote from fenn68 on December 30, 2021, 3:19 pm

With the CBA lockout of ML players … if it lasts into mid-March … to plan to bring in their minor league players earlier than scheduled to get some extra work in Peoria and under the tutelage of the ML coaching staff. Maybe not all but the projected AAA/AA talent?

For the near ML ready that not only would benefit the players but may help the organization assess who may be positioned for call-up as needed. A couple of extra weeks of focused development of the likes of Abrams, Elliott, Kopps, etc either accelerate their arrival or make it clear to the Padres that they (in the short run) need to deal for some ML quality back-up or can deal a ML talent.