Quote from fenn68 on October 4, 2020, 1:12 pm

A short term weakness in the farm system is upper level position players ... Campusano in near as a catcher and Ona is near (depending on how he is viewed as a prospect). Link that with after 2021: Pham FA, Garcia FA, Moreland FA, and Profar is gone after 2020.

As it is MAYBE Abrams is ML ready in 2022 but virtually no chance on the kids in the lower minors. That sort of places the Padres as being very flexible in the development of Abrams and using him in the most needed spot ... once they know what that spot is.

Although I am guessing that will be in the OF .... I would still keep Abrams at SS to start 2021 since that is a premium position for a player of his skills. Make the position shift later.

If he is that outstanding an athlete ... I want that skill set at the premium positions of SS and CF and expect that SS will be occupied. Cronenworth may fail at 2B but 2B are more readily found and serviceable than quality CF. Grisham has is own issue with the bat and defensively ... all his scouting reports prior to coming over concluded he should be in LF.

See Hassell or Head or whomever is rising out of the lower minors and potential replacements for Myers who should be gone after 2022 (unless the pickup his 2023 option ... never thought I would say that).

Be flexible and hope that Abrams is actually as good as hyped.

Quote from Randy Manese on October 4, 2020, 1:15 pm

I'll admit that I was highly skeptical as to what we would get out of Croney when the season began then I absolutely got spoiled thinking he could produce at all-star levels consistently over time with the great start he had.  Even when he went into his slump in September, you have to like his calm approach and set-up at the plate - he never changed even when several hard hit balls didn't go his way; he just got Hosmeritis and began to hit too many ground balls.  My guess is what his final stats for 2020 are what you are going to see for Croney over a whole season because he is that consistent over his 3 years in Michigan and 5 years in the minors.  He's probably good for about a 350 OBP and and 440 SA, so that's absolutely fine for a second baseman that plays excellent defense 90+% of the time.   I don't think you write off that kind of talent at age 26 as a utility player in 2021 or for the next 3-4 years.

With regard to Abrams, he and many of the top prospects we have are all lefthand hitters - and so are Grisham and Croney.  I'd be surprised if Mateo can hold down a utility spot, much less a starting spot, with a .267 average over 8 seasons in the minors; he does have great speed, but that's not enough.  I'm looking at guys like Marcano (L), Santana (R) and even Eguy (R) as better utility guys or eventual replacements for Croney down the road.  The OF is far more muddled with Pham going into his last year and Myers possibly in his last year the year after.  It would be easy to stick Abrams at 2b but that is not where the need is expected in 2021/2022.  For this reason, my belief is that Abrams pushes Grisham to LF after Pham departs and we'll see how Hassell, Head, Mears, Caissie, etc. develop over a longer period of time.   Preciado could be a fast mover, but don't expect him to remain as a middle infielder.  I haven't totally given up on Esteury Ruiz as an OF or Allen Cordoba as and INF/OF swingman a la Profar.

The two biggest offensive infusions to the Padres offense in the near future will be Campusano at C and Abrams at CF  - probably in the next year to year and a half.  Both need more time in the minors but not that much time because of their skill levels with the bat.   I also believe you'll see more of Mejia at C next year, when his hands are fully healed - Castro will command too much money and won't hit as well as Mejia will.  I think we have some excellent depth coming up at almost all positions but 1b, so prepare to get excited if we have a 2021 minor league season.  Fall instructs should give us a good window into 2021.  AND, haven't even started talking about PITCHING, oh my!

Quote from Ben Davey on October 4, 2020, 2:06 pm

With Nola under contract for the next 4 years and both Mejia and Campy ready, one of them gets traded (possibly 2).

The question is, do you trade low on Mejia or trade high on Campy?  Campusano has been good enough that you can probably trade him 1:1 for a top 50 prospect.  Mejia can probably net you a couple of low level prospects that slide into the top 30.  I guess the question becomes how much do you like Nola?  If you can see him starting for the team for the next 3-4 years then trade Campy to fill a whole (or what will soon be a whole like LF).

As much as we like Abrams, we should remember that he doesnt even have 10 AB in Fort Wayne let alone, Elsinore, or anywhere in Texas, so thinking he might be ready next year is extremely wishful thinking.

Mateo fills a need for this year and possibly next year.  He can get you that Dave Roberts esque SB as a pimch runner late in games.  There might be others you like better than him but they dont have his speed, and if the DH continues, there isnt much a need for a deep bench (meaning you can have single use guys like a speedster, defense specialist, Ryan Schimpf esque guy, etc...).

Quote from fenn68 on October 4, 2020, 3:37 pm

I would not trade any of the catchers .... yet.

Nola is the #1 ... and has some control but in a couple of years HE may be the trade chip as he gets deeper into his 30s.

In the interim Campusano actually has to prove his value ... probably with another season in the minors to push for that ML starting slot.

Mejia can fit well as the #2 catcher in 2021 ... get ML ABs to show he can hit up to his projection earlier ... it is the bat that is important with him and he could be the DH/3rd catcher once that slot opens after the departures of Pham /Moreland. Actually, if they keep Moreland, Mejia could be the RHH DH in 2021.

Meanwhile we may learn more about the upside of Hunt.

Don't really think Mejia or Campusano ... right now ... would get anything more valuable back in a deal and not ready to supplant Nola. Basically for 2021 ... hold. If Mejia / Campusano / Hunt look like real ML players dealing a proven ML catcher (with 2-3 years control) should get them the better return while actually providing current production on a playoff contender.

Quote from Randy Manese on October 4, 2020, 4:45 pm

I see Nola and Mejia holding down the catching position next year.  I don't think they want to trade Mejia while his value is down and he could fill several roles for the 2021 Padres.  Campy is an advanced hitter who may start 2021 in AA but could soon move to AAA.  May come up if there is an injury but he needs experience at the plate and behind the plate.  By 2022, see Campy getting eased into the majority of the catching opportunities by mid-year and Nola (at 32) used at c/1b/DH as Campy progresses; how Mejia does in 2021 will determine his fate but he'll only be 25 for all of the season next year so a good year brings better returns in trade than currently.  I would not trade Campy - this is a difficult position to fill with a good hitter who has some defensive ability.  If Hunt proves his equal, which he hasn't yet done, it would make the decision easier but in my mind Campy is clearly the Padres catcher going forward for many years in the 2020's.  I think he's better than Bart and has the potential to be almost as good as Rutschman although Rutschman currently has the advantage of playing in the PAC-12 for 3 years, thus giving him more exposure to more advanced pitching earlier.  I can't wait to see the results of him hitting in the high minors next year - he could win a second batting title if he stays at one level long enough and doesn't start swinging for the fences at every opportunity at the plate.  He's a special hitter for a position that typically has a low bar for offensive production.

Quote from Brian Connelly on October 5, 2020, 8:34 am

A short term weakness in the farm system is upper level position players ...

Before we all get consumed with the playoff series tomorrow thought I'd look at our system's upcoming Minors FA:

Position players:  Webster Rivas-C, Ivan Castillo (S)-2B/INF, Michael Gettys-CF, Jason Vosler (L) - 3B/1B, Allen Cordoba-OF/INF

Starting Pitchers:  Pedro Avila, Daniel Camarena (L), Emmanuel Ramirez

Relief Pitchers:  Miguel Diaz, Hansel Rodriguez, Chih-Wei Hu, Chase Johnson, Kyle McGrath (L), Jean Cosme, Brady Feigl (L), Carlos Belen

I don't see any reason why all 5 of the position players shouldn't be invited back by the Padres.  Great opportunity for many with a lot of the competition gone.  Vosler may want to move on being blocked in MLB, but I speculated his LH bat might be worth offering a MLB contract to force control ("poor man's Moreland"; at least depth)?  Didn't include Yonder Alonso (L)-1B.  Guessing he retires & joins Padres Front office or Coaching ranks somewhere.

Pitchers with the DEEP MLB bullpen & large # of elite upper AND lower level SP prospects might be the opposite:  They may all look for greener pastures.  Avila & Diaz re-upped on Minors deals last year to rehab when removed from the 40-man roster with major injuries requiring surgery.  Would love to see them return.  Also Hansel Rodriguez; power arm from Melvin Upton trade has just missed chunks of time on IL.

Quote from fenn68 on October 5, 2020, 9:23 am

Good chance they all get offered minor league contracts to return ... toss up whether they and their agents look for a better opportunity to maybe get some ML time unless the Padres offer a "premium" to resign on a minor league deal.

Would think if I were a "fringe" players might want to get aligned in an organization that is not as stacked with quality pitching prospects or even a hard to break into ML line-up.

Have to think for career advancement signing with a team like PITT, DET, BALT, .... gives the best future.

Of all those names, might push the "premium" to Rivas in AAA since catching is always critical and Cordoba since I still want to see him over a full season well clear of his major injury and he does have a chance to be that INF/OF utility RHH. Would pursue the others ... but not go premium. Plus have to consider what this happening with these guys is happening within the other 29 teams ... and with Padres scouting history there may be "better" options to pursue. After this "odd" 2020 no idea whether the opens a lot of movement on no movement in the minor league ranks.

Quote from Brian Connelly on October 5, 2020, 10:04 am

I think of the 5 position players Vosler & Rivas could somewhat correctly perceive themselves as "blocked", but really for them and ESPECIALLY the other 3, it's hard to imagine MORE opportunity than in this organization by just lurking in AAA playing every day to prove themselves & waiting for a chance.

Compare to last year:  Rivas had Hedges, Torrens, & Austin Allen ahead of him.  Now "just" Nola.  Campusano closing the gap fast, but maybe not early in year?   Long time Org guy has more value to Pads than other systems.  Vosler:  Primary "blocker" Ty France is gone.  Garcia likely to be.  Moreland?

Ivan Castillo looks up & now Owen Miller, plus Arias are gone.  Remember Brian Dozier & Tim Beckham were in ST I for the wide open 2B spot...  His fate might be tied to Profar's.  If Profar leaves, Castillo really has an opportunity.  Even if Profar's back, I hope Castillo is too.  Gettys was like the 13th OF in ST, now he's something like 6th-7th, and Mateo AND Greg Allen are both out of options.  1 at most makes the team.  Getttys' skill set really "fits" pretty perfectly with the existing roster.  Who cares if he can't hit?  The other 8 spots all do.  Could bat 9th sometimes vs LHP for Grisham, fill in defensively at other times to get Pham & Myers off their feet.  He actually could be the fallback option for the 4th OF we need until we find someone better, then depth. Cordoba will play every day all over the field in AA/AAA if back.  "Poor man's" Profar in a year?

Would assume the Pads have little interest in most of the P's, and they would be better off elsewhere.   "Traded for" guys sometimes stick around a little longer to prove themselves (H. Rodriguez).  Avila & especially Diaz have something most of the Padres pen does not:  Minor league options.  Pads actually don't have THAT many guys that can be sent down:  Think it's Tim Hill, Jose Castillo, David Bednar, maybe Perdomo (possbile non-tender).  Over the course of  full season need more "rotate-able" options in pen.

Quote from Ben Davey on October 5, 2020, 10:20 am

The lack of upper minor hitting depth is really only a thing if you think there are holes or will be holes in the next 3 years.  (3 years is a good time from when a player is drafted until they are knocking on the door, maybe 2 for a college player and 4 for a IFA), meaning if you think Tatis, Machado, Grisham, and Nola will be around for the next 4 years, the entire farm can look different by then.  Thats why the Padres traded Arias, Miller, and Edwards.  So outside of the OF, not really any holes coming up in the next few years.

The Padres have a slew of OF prospects that will be coming up and probably ready by 2023 (when Myers leaves and his $ is hopefully given to Tatis).  This includes Abrams, Head, Hassell, Mears, Tirso (remember him).  So if you think Abrams is a lock and pushes Grisham to LF, that means we "hope" that one of the other four reach their potential.  Not to mention when we went to the Prospect Game last year we kept hearing how impressive Preciado and Mena were.  They are a step behind the others, but both have top 100 prospect ceilings.

If you can resign Profar to a 2 year deal that bridges the maybe one year gap between when Pham leaves and Abrams takes over.