Quote from Randy Manese on September 1, 2020, 9:44 am

In my August 20th post, I mentioned all the players that were recently traded as being affected by the development of Cronenworth and Grisham.  If you look at all of them closely, and here I'll add Cantillo, all had some reasonable doubt attached as to whether they were going to actually develop into the major leaguers we think they could be.  Trammell was a high upside swing where we had zero prospects for CF in the near future.  Not a strong arm, not always takes good jumps, probably not a power hitter and some contact issues but hopefully could be fixed.  Great speed and make-up.  However, once we got Grisham and drafted Hassell, Trammell's value to us declined and that's not even mentioning the potential of Head and Mena; J Rosario pushed way down the list.  Likewise, Arias was a defensive whiz at SS but until the 2nd half last year, some serious doubt as to his hit tool.  It could be real, but we have Abrams (unless moved to CF, where he could even push Grisham to LF) and Yeison Santana and Preciado behind him not to mention late blooming possibilities in Justin Lopez and Barley.  Looked blocked at 2b and 3b also.  Potts has potential as a slugger but will probably never hit for a high average.  With Cantillo, dominated low A but going forward with his lack of velocity was he going to be more like Zach Davies or Nick Margevicius?  Baseball is a business where you have to maximize your assets.  Not having to give up Gore, Patino, Abrams, Campusano, Morejon, Hassell and Weathers was huge.  Prospects had potential but not without some risks; seems like the gamble is going to be worth it in the short and long run.  This is not 2015 all over again - much better on the field core and still all our top prospects with more certain potential/projection in the bank.   Look at the end of year 2014 Padres roster and compare.

Quote from fenn68 on September 1, 2020, 10:17 am

Agree on your points.

The trade of Trammell and the emergency of Tatis / Cronenworth in the middle INF may just accelerate Abrams shift to CF. Grisham will be around a long time but the scouting may still suggest the is better suited for LF (current defensive stats aside).

The key that may make Abrams advance quickly is all the reports have him with elite bat to ball skills to complement his speed / athletic skills. It the advanced hitting element that can get him in the Padre OF ... 2022? when Pham departs (we know Preller like to move his elite quickly).

Wonder if Abrams work at the alternate site helped convince Preller that Trammell is expendable? Maybe Trammell's work also contributed?

I guess the Padres got a rare opportunity to see daily ... on the same site ... with the same conditions: Trammell; Abrams; Head; and Hassell ... all young, high upside, LHH who can play CF. That group may have made the decision easy for Preller.

Quote from WindsorUK on September 1, 2020, 10:36 am

Our outfield at the major league level is set for the next few years so should give the young kids time to mature and progress at a somewhat reasonable rate.

Abrams most likely the first to arrive( when Pham departs, should the Padres choose to sign him for next year) with others to follow in 2023 and beyond.

Quote from 84padres on September 1, 2020, 1:54 pm

Quote from Randy Manese on September 1, 2020, 9:44 am

In my August 20th post, I mentioned all the players that were recently traded as being affected by the development of Cronenworth and Grisham.  If you look at all of them closely, and here I'll add Cantillo, all had some reasonable doubt attached as to whether they were going to actually develop into the major leaguers we think they could be.  Trammell was a high upside swing where we had zero prospects for CF in the near future.  Not a strong arm, not always takes good jumps, probably not a power hitter and some contact issues but hopefully could be fixed.  Great speed and make-up.  However, once we got Grisham and drafted Hassell, Trammell's value to us declined and that's not even mentioning the potential of Head and Mena; J Rosario pushed way down the list.  Likewise, Arias was a defensive whiz at SS but until the 2nd half last year, some serious doubt as to his hit tool.  It could be real, but we have Abrams (unless moved to CF, where he could even push Grisham to LF) and Yeison Santana and Preciado behind him not to mention late blooming possibilities in Justin Lopez and Barley.  Looked blocked at 2b and 3b also.  Potts has potential as a slugger but will probably never hit for a high average.  With Cantillo, dominated low A but going forward with his lack of velocity was he going to be more like Zach Davies or Nick Margevicius?  Baseball is a business where you have to maximize your assets.  Not having to give up Gore, Patino, Abrams, Campusano, Morejon, Hassell and Weathers was huge.  Prospects had potential but not without some risks; seems like the gamble is going to be worth it in the short and long run.  This is not 2015 all over again - much better on the field core and still all our top prospects with more certain potential/projection in the bank.   Look at the end of year 2014 Padres roster and compare.

Wow you must have been reading Pellers mind on your Aug 20 post. Looks like you nailed almost every prospect traded. The trades cleaned up quite a logjam on our 40 man roster this winter.

Quote from fenn68 on September 2, 2020, 9:19 am

Just read the MLBTradeRumors on moving the 2021 draft to All-Star week in July.

A lot of very good rationale ... so I like it.

However, one point not discussed (and maybe aligns with how MLB is going to deal with MiLB next year) ... is the impact on RK/SS ball and how that is restructured.

IF players are not drafted until early July ... and for the top picks maybe not signed until late July / Aug .... might we just see an "orientation" assembly for those players and no actually playing time in the year drafted. Considering MLB has suggested they will limit the number teams/Mil players going forward ... more time for the current crop of prospects to get to play and, depending on the strategy for AZR, maybe an earlier start since they would not be "waiting" for the draft to deliver players.

Could the AZR turn into more of a "full season" league? Makes some additional sense considering the lost 2021 for all these prospects.

Quote from Brian Connelly on September 2, 2020, 11:57 am

Quote from fenn68 on September 2, 2020, 9:19 am

Just read the MLBTradeRumors on moving the 2021 draft to All-Star week in July.

A lot of very good rationale ... so I like it.

However, one point not discussed (and maybe aligns with how MLB is going to deal with MiLB next year) ... is the impact on RK/SS ball and how that is restructured.

IF players are not drafted until early July ... and for the top picks maybe not signed until late July / Aug .... might we just see an "orientation" assembly for those players and no actually playing time in the year drafted. Considering MLB has suggested they will limit the number teams/Mil players going forward ... more time for the current crop of prospects to get to play and, depending on the strategy for AZR, maybe an earlier start since they would not be "waiting" for the draft to deliver players.

Could the AZR turn into more of a "full season" league? Makes some additional sense considering the lost 2021 for all these prospects.

It would be more logical esp next year to "stagger" first MLB, then upper level Minors, then lower level Minors Spring Trainings.

It makes way more sense to just have the (next year) overflowing systems compete in these ST, and PLAY much sooner instead of the short season leagues then waiting until Summer when the draftees arrive.  For maybe just next year, I like the idea of the draftees simply not playing until 2022.

Quote from Randy Manese on September 12, 2020, 11:08 pm

Since a relatively quiet two days, thought I'd give a shot as to where our top prospects (based on the Pipeline rankings) may start assuming there is a 2021 minor league season.  This also assumes we keep relatively the same 40 man roster as we have now, probably minus most of the FAs.  The post-season Arizona "camp" may further help sort this out, but here are my best guesses and rationale for their rated top 10.  I've added what I've observed or read about these prospects.

1.Gore - Two bad pitcher's park in which to put him, but probably further along now that he can start in El Paso.  Didn't have a great spring training/summer camp or alternative training site, so I'm speculating that they want him to get stronger, particularly lower core over the winter, to add a little more oomph to his FB and also get more consistency with all his secondary pitches by cleaning up his mechanics, so his complete repertoire is available to him during a game.  If he shows that early, he could be a call-up at mid-season unless we have an injury or two earlier.

2.Abrams - Likely start at High A, to see how he has developed in his pitch recognition (want to see low chase rate outside the zone) and his swings against change-ups and sliders, in particular.  If develops as expected, then jump to AA for the rest of the season.  He is the kind of hitter that won't need AAA once he has his approach locked in at the plate.  Also, will see if he stays at short or spends considerable time in CF.  Likely won't see him until 2022, but he could surprise depending upon his development.

3.Patino - If he doesn't win a SP shot in spring training, then AAA.  Needs to better his command and get better movement on his FB, maybe mix in more 2 seam with 4 seam.  Slider can be devastating and change-up not too far behind.  Just needs innings - an early call-up.  At worst, could still be long man in relief/piggyback on bullpen day.

4.Campusano - Very strong with huge power and a very good hit tool.  Likely will skip AA and start at El Paso.  Would like to see how he handles a staff at the upper level of the minors and if his improved athleticism translates to blocking pitches better as well as setting up quicker on SB attempts.   With Nola at C, no need to rush him, particularly if the roster is back down to 26 and there is no DH in the NL.  He is the catcher of the future and that future is not very far away.

5.Hassell - Probably spend a good deal of time at Hi A, unless he didn't show as well as everyone thought during his time at the alternate training site.  Just needs more time and with that time, expect him to get stronger and make the hard contact that eventually will result in him having slightly above average HR power, maybe in the high 20's.  Several years away - maybe 2023 or 2024.

6.Morejon - I'm pencilling him in as the replacement for Richards over Lucchesi or any veteran SP we may pick up.  Only question mark is whether his body/arm will hold up over the course of a season.  Many judge his stuff equal to Gore and Patino and so far this year he seems to have gotten better every time out.  Fall back position is RP, but I think he is on the roster for good.

7.Weathers - Word is he finally became serious about getting in shape and in so doing, has tapped into greater velocity and greater consistency with his secondary stuff.  Will probably skip over Hi A and start at AA; could earn an early promotion to AAA if he performs well.

8.Wilcox - Might start at Low A with an early promotion to Hi A if he shows well.  Will be a quick mover in the system if his command improves.  Probably 2-3 years away at the earliest.

9.Marcano - Lot of middle infielders traded, so Marcano will likely start at AA with a good chance to move to AAA by mid-season.  Like Abrams, great hand/eye coordination and rarely strikes out.  Thin frame needs to fill out, adding muscle without losing flexibility.  I think he's underrated and at worst will be a good utility infielder and can even play OF.

10.Mateo - Don't know what they will do with Mateo.  Has impressive speed but questionable bat skills. No options remaining, so probably stick around unless traded or DFA'd to minors.  Don't see him unseating any regulars and with a 26 man roster, don't see him having much of a role even if Profar leaves.

 

 

 

Quote from fenn68 on September 13, 2020, 5:45 am

One factor on placement is of course their work at the alternate site (for the better prospects who where there) ... the potential value of any fall instructs ... and their ST BUT somehow the Padres have to work through a lack of prospects to fill AAA/AA rosters after the trades and minor league FA.

That vacuum may pull up some prospects into a higher level since they do have the body count to cover A+ and lower. Add that Preller likes to challenge his better prospects with promotions as soon as he feels they are ready.

Add that as MLB wins the debate with MiLB and effectively goes to one SS/AZ Rookie team with 50 prospects that should push up more options for low A then keep going up a level with that “push” of players.

The minor league staff may have to work overtime in signing FA for the AAA/AA level.

Not worried about filling the pitching slots ... position players could be a bigger challenge. EP/AMA could be in position for difficult seasons.

Quote from Brian Connelly on September 13, 2020, 12:35 pm

Nice analysis Randy!   I agree with most of it.  Campusano has 0 AB AA, so I wouldn't mind seeing him there.  I'd rather see him working with the better staff overall, which might be there.  There is an "age bias" to AAA, so for example, of the Pads prospect SP's, the guy most likely to be in AAA I think is Baez, partly b/c he's older, but more b/c the average age/experience of players in AAA is so much higher than AA.

I agree with you that Mateo is one of two "prospect/projects" (the other is Javier Guerra) that might simply fit better on a non-contending team in 2021 with room to struggle as they play/develop, than on a World series contender where they may be too hard to "hide" over a full 162 game season.

I still love Preller's move to get to Mateo (even if the cost was Tirso Ornelas, which I suspect)... even if it's "just" for this season.  Preller correctly anticipated the importance of a pure 80 speed guy in a short season/expanded roster setting.  But didn't anticipate Mateo entirely missing the critically important for him Summer Camp.   On paper, Mateo's profile is very similar to Profar's:  an uber-prospect who hasn't lived up to the early hype, but has the elite athleticism to profile as a super utility.  He COULD theoretically replace Profar in 2021, but while Profar's status "dip" was mostly due to severe injuries early in career, Mateo's more worryingly has simply been inconsistency and inability to hit enough.   Guerra's upside as a late inning RP is more obvious, and perhaps likely, but how long will it take him to get there?  He "might" be easier to 'hide'/develop over a full season starting off as the low-leverage "garbage" man in pen.  2021 Padres should increasingly have large leads late in games 🙂

Padres in a great position now with a thinned out 40-man roster/top prospects entering the offseason.  There's no reason they can't hold both players into or even through ST next year; where each will play a LOT (think most AB's, most appearances).  If they feel either or both can't fit on the roster all year since both are out of options; either or both guys would be pretty easy trades for a significant top 30 prospect back (almost certainly non-40 man, lower levels).