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#1191 · January 17, 2020, 2:40 pm
Quote from MrPadre19 on January 17, 2020, 1:46 pmWe have so many guys like Arias(and Campusano really) who still have so much potential.
I truly believe because we have had so many guys in the top 100 the last few years some of these guys don't get their due.
Arias for example is our 13th rated prospect right now....I have to think he would be top 5 in many other systems.With his defense and the step he took offensively last season...I mean,over .800 OPS with 17 HR's for a great defensive SS prospect?!
Plus he's still a teenager!
I certainly hope we don't trade him too soon...if at all.
He will be good insurance in case FTJ's reckless style causes him to miss more time.
OR.......he will have even more value after another good season with the bat.
Clearly giving the Padres some intriguing options over the next few years if the Arias, Campusano, Trammell, types develop as hoped. Generally speaking trading high ceiling prospects out of the lower levels does not yield the type of return most would want and taking the development gamble on them might serve the organization better even if 1 out of 2 hit their peaks and are dealt out of AAA.
My preference .. at least theory ... is allow them to develop for the Padres and option #1 is to bump the Padres incumbent in a couple of years keeping the overall payroll lower while maintaining quality ... and opening payroll space for the FA add or dealing a quality established player may yield a better return than even a quality prospect.
Preller will have options depending on the Padres needs and the needs / wants of other teams.
I clearly can see in 2022 Campusano holding one of the catching slots (if around Hedges last season and would be moved) and potentially a ML veteran such as Mejia (low cost, control remaining, big bat) may yield a big return .. greater than Campusano. Options!
IF Arias is that elite defensively at SS and can hit ... in 2022 moving a lesser defensive SS in Tatis to RF/2B (replace Myers?/ TBD) ... not sure of a better RF/2B bat in 2022 that what adding Arias into the line-up would not surpass.
Keeping the newcomers (assuming they can perform) and dealing the experienced is the formula for a sustained competitiveness by maximizing control over the rosters at a lower payroll giving flexibility for more costly strategic adds.
#1192 · January 17, 2020, 11:51 pm
The problem with Arias for the past two years has been his swing and miss %. It was one of the highest in the league in the MWL and improved but was still high last year in the Cal League. He makes hard contact, and can hit for a good amount of power, BUT many point out that the miss % doesnt usually go down as you get up to AA/AAA/MLB and if it goes higher, Arias becomes Austin Hedges (+ defender with some power, but cant hit enough to save his life). I had Arias in my top 10, because I was chalking a lot of the swing and miss to the adage "you dont walk off the island." Arias is a teenager doing well in High A. Give him a few years (no rush with Tatis Jr) and no reason he wont be a .250/.310/.450 hitter with GG defense at short.
Trammell is definitely heralded as he was the Futures Game MVP in 2018 and did well again in 2019.
IMO Morejon and Baez are actually the under the radar prospects. Both were top 50 prospects a year ago, and most fans are already dismissing them as trade bait or bullpen pieces. Baez might be destined for the pen, but we saw that with his giant frame, he can have a career similar to Chris Young. Morejon, IF he ever gets his head on straight, has better pure stuff than Paddack. His value is low, but he is exactly the type of player that a team acquires and becomes their ace. (Of course he might not disclose a torn ligament and never pitch again too FWIW).
#1193 · January 18, 2020, 5:27 am
No surprise here but the Padres had nobody on MLBPipeline’s Top 10 1B list.
However, looking at the list ... apparently there are few quality 1B prospects in MLB. The Top 4 grade out well but the next 4 are only at “50” grade and with some big weaknesses either in hitting or defense. The last 3 are only “45”.
Seems as though the Padres are in step with the rest of the organizations when it comes to developing 1B types ... probably looking at moving some more versatile / athletic prospect from another position (e.g. 3B to 1B) as needed.
I guess this landscape of 1B may just enhance the trade value of a Naylor as a 1B if he can hit ML pitching .... 30 teams (15 also need a DH) and not looking as though lot of 1B/DH hitters arriving near term.
#1194 · January 18, 2020, 9:10 am
Hudson Potts comes to mind as a guy who could move to 1b.
If his offense improves and he pushes for a ML roster spot he won’t be taking 3b from Machado.
#1195 · January 18, 2020, 9:37 am
Quote from fenn68 on January 18, 2020, 5:27 amNo surprise here but the Padres had nobody on MLBPipeline’s Top 10 1B list.
However, looking at the list ... apparently there are few quality 1B prospects in MLB. The Top 4 grade out well but the next 4 are only at “50” grade and with some big weaknesses either in hitting or defense. The last 3 are only “45”.
Seems as though the Padres are in step with the rest of the organizations when it comes to developing 1B types ... probably looking at moving some more versatile / athletic prospect from another position (e.g. 3B to 1B) as needed.
I guess this landscape of 1B may just enhance the trade value of a Naylor as a 1B if he can hit ML pitching .... 30 teams (15 also need a DH) and not looking as though lot of 1B/DH hitters arriving near term.
I listened to their podcast discussing the top 10 1B, and they said that 1B is almost always the weakest position (with RHP easily the strongest... hence Patino at 8). They said roughly what you did. Its not that there are no good 1B in the minors, but rather teams will shift offensive minded players at other positions when they get closer to the majors. They listed a bunch of 3B/2B/OF guys who they could see moving to 1B. If they did, the 1B list would look a lot different, but for now they are not considered 1B.
I dont see much of a market for Naylor outside a team in need for a 1B/DH and even then it would be a buy low. I really like Naylor, but he hasnt done enough to earn himself a full time starting job and of course its hard when the Padres have so many good and/or expensive OF/1B options.
#1196 · January 18, 2020, 11:05 am
Yeh, Naylor presents a “problem” unless the Padres are waiting for the DH (but that is a long way off) or they plan to try to deal Hosmer after this season when his no trade clause expires.
Even if Naylor proves capable of hitting in the ML in his limited role I would not expect a significant return in any deal ... just not a big demand for his 1B/DH profile unless a mega-star ... which he is not. Having said that he would add value to a team needing that profile (given limited alternatives .. plus control and low cost). Best bet that the Padres move him as a supporting piece in a bigger deal or at some point move him for the vague DSL/Rookie/A ball upside prospect.
Just hard to see him as the Padre RF if they are contending. Then again, consider the lackluster Padre alternatives in the short run.
#1197 · January 18, 2020, 4:13 pm
Naylor feels a lot like a young Yonder Alonso when he was roping doubles into the gap in his first year or so in SD. Naylor more athletic though.
#1198 · January 19, 2020, 5:20 pm
If David's still pumping in the mid-90s at 50 years old, that's really something!
But yes, Ryan was working in the mid-90s consistently before the injury/not-injury.
#1199 · January 20, 2020, 6:32 am
Actually the Padres have a number of options (assuming they develop as hitters) to move to 1B ... and considering Hosmer will likely be around through 2022 (3 more seasons) until his opt out (if he exercises it) ... if not ... 6 more seasons through 2025 ... a lot of time for those from the lower minors.
The depth of catching seems like a fertile ground to find a 1B. Mejia is controlled through 2024 and (if he is in the minors in 2020) Torrens will be controlled through 2025. Campusano could be in the mix starting in 2022 ... Hunt in 2023 ... Driscoll in 2024. All three cover the post Hosmer-Mejia-Torrens era.
Potts and Ornelas had under performing 2019 but still a viewed with upside ... arriving maybe in 2022-23 which works if Hosmer opts out. For their benefit they may need to develop some OF skills to stick first as a back-up OF until Hosmer departs. Ona? Then if Hosmer goes for his full contract ... a lot of time to draft the 1B of the future.
Looks like the Padres have the depth of prospects to potentially convert 1B whether Hosmer is gone in 3 or 6 years.
Side: do think Hosmer will opt out after 3 years (with even reasonable production) ... will believe he can get a deal at that time equal or greater than the 3 years at $13MM per year. Then one up that .... Padres will try to trade him in 2022 (my guess) ... his no trade is gone after this season and then the avoid the 5-10 rule kicking in in 2023 giving him full no trade rights.
#1200 · January 20, 2020, 7:08 am
Quote from Ben Davey on January 17, 2020, 11:51 pmThe problem with Arias for the past two years has been his swing and miss %. It was one of the highest in the league in the MWL and improved but was still high last year in the Cal League. He makes hard contact, and can hit for a good amount of power, BUT many point out that the miss % doesnt usually go down as you get up to AA/AAA/MLB and if it goes higher, Arias becomes Austin Hedges (+ defender with some power, but cant hit enough to save his life). I had Arias in my top 10, because I was chalking a lot of the swing and miss to the adage "you dont walk off the island." Arias is a teenager doing well in High A. Give him a few years (no rush with Tatis Jr) and no reason he wont be a .250/.310/.450 hitter with GG defense at short.
Trammell is definitely heralded as he was the Futures Game MVP in 2018 and did well again in 2019.
IMO Morejon and Baez are actually the under the radar prospects. Both were top 50 prospects a year ago, and most fans are already dismissing them as trade bait or bullpen pieces. Baez might be destined for the pen, but we saw that with his giant frame, he can have a career similar to Chris Young. Morejon, IF he ever gets his head on straight, has better pure stuff than Paddack. His value is low, but he is exactly the type of player that a team acquires and becomes their ace. (Of course he might not disclose a torn ligament and never pitch again too FWIW).
I'm guessing you aren't "too" worried about Arias's K rate considering you have him at #7 in your top 30?