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Milke Clevinger to undergo Tommy John Surgery
#21 · November 17, 2020, 11:42 am
Yep, non-tender Pham. However, would be surprised if they non-tender Pham unless they lock down the upgrade bat be that Profar or Ozuna or Springer or Brantley or ???? and that seems unlikely before Dec 2 ... but not out of the question if Preller really goes for it.
I would lean towards Ozuna on a $72MM/4 year deal (guess by MLBTradeRumors) ... $18MM AAV can be "handled" with the DFA of Pham, Clevinger's extra savings, and only part of the rumored available for growth. Would be taking a risk with his LF defense if no DH in 2021 but fully expect the DH for his last 3 years.
Springer is the better all around player but at $125MM/5 years (AAV $25MM) probably not worth the difference with Grisham and Myers handling CF/RF ... Springer's value positions.
Brantley is "older", just OK defense at this stage and likely not a longer term solution ... really like him in Cleveland and Houston but an aging LHH just isn't the right fit.
Profar could probably come in lower than Pham (leaving money for other adds) and the combo of offense and defense might actually deliver more value. Add Profar, non-tender Pham as a push and keep maybe $15MM free to add in other slots.
#22 · November 17, 2020, 1:56 pm
It seems we all pretty much agree.
Take a chance with the 7-8 Starters you already have and add a *Big Bat for LF/DH.
I still though think Pham is going to far surpass his cost in his walk year.....but that doesn't mean we can't still add the *Big Bat.
I think it's likely 70% chance we have the DH for 2021 and 100% for 2022.
Find the bat and either keep Pham or trade him.
I have to believe you could get something for him from a team willing to think as I do that he will have a monster season if healthy.
#23 · November 17, 2020, 2:53 pm
99.44% chance of the NL DH in 2022 (always leave some wiggle room)
Not quite as optimistic about 2021 ... more a 50/50 with the owners being the real stumbling block in whatever they demand as a give back by the union ... and doing this a year away from the BIG CBA negotiation. Neither side wants to show their negotiation hand for this issue alone.
So a bit of the role the dice on the strategy to sign a big OF/DH bat and keep Pham ... then having a 50% chance of not fully utilizing either or both in 2021. Goes back to waiting until the very last minute by the team and the players/agents to really know the rules and market. Of course if you are an AL team ... might just up the ante early for an offensive first player like Ozuna ... get a deal done giving him some early security. Even if you are a NL team with a LF opening and are willing to live for a year with marginal defense ... also could play early. Just harder for SD to justify that move.
I expect Pham in LF ... go with the "known" 8 starters ... and when a DH approved work on filling the need for another bat ... or lean on Mejia, Campusano, or Ona.
#24 · November 17, 2020, 4:05 pm
Yeah, all the "add a big bat" ideas really aren't addressing the big payroll increase BEYOND 2021... they're just rationalizing (me included) the 4 + 8 MM "saved" in 2021 on injured Clevinger & Pham... there's a LOT to be said for not committing large amounts of $ going forward when org is still so top heavy.
And unless you move awfully quickly, not going to get the FA signed by 11/20.
If there is ANY chance you could trade Pham (even if you have to eat a little), you're better off just tendering him a contract, then trying to work a signing of a FA and a trade of Pham simultaneously.
Gotta agree with Mr. P that dumping Pham REALLY has the potential to blow up in our face; he could easily end up outperforming his replacement. He will be hell bent to prove himself in his walk year.
#25 · May 2, 2022, 1:04 pm
Just for the record ... he's scheduled to start tomorrow! 🙂
#26 · May 3, 2022, 4:57 am
Rain in forecast in Cleveland all day.
Clev may get one more day to get ready……double header tomorrow?