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Milke Clevinger to undergo Tommy John Surgery
#1 · November 16, 2020, 3:14 pm
Unbelievable . . . UH
#2 · November 16, 2020, 3:16 pm
And so the Padres sign him thru 2022?
Just as Fenn predicted.
#3 · November 16, 2020, 3:18 pm
yes . . . I want to throw up
#4 · November 16, 2020, 3:23 pm
So by signing him I assume they saved some money in 2021?
I realize we don’t know the details yet but why else would they do it?
So now we really are in play for a FA Starter or via trade I assume?
#5 · November 16, 2020, 4:09 pm
$3MM signing bonus .... $2MM 2021 salary .... $6.5MM 2022 salary = $11.5MM / 2 years.
Don’t know if the $3MM signing bonus is upfront or spread over the 2 years.
Given the $11MM / 1 year for Smyly ... getting 1 year of Clevinger for $11.5 is fair.
#6 · November 16, 2020, 4:25 pm
Going to make the roster moves more difficult under the belief that money is tight. Clevinger is not going to open much (if any) significant payroll space.
Working under the additional $10MM assumptions ... most were aiming that at a RP, bench upgrade, and maybe “protection” if a DH is approved in the NL.
I would guess the add of a RP (closer) is a much lower priority. Considering the Smyly signing was at $11MM ... getting even an average SP might deplete the pool. Might take a shot at a real “rebound” candidate (low cost / make good) but that is just a shot in the dark.
Thinking they throw the “prospects” into the breach ... Lamet - Davies - Paddack in as 1 - 3 then run Gore, Patino, Morejon ... maybe Weathers or Baez to fill out the rotation on the cheap (but with big potential for years). That would leave the $10MM available for that offense upgrade and/or RP.
Personally a bit more concerned about offensive support since a number of the current position players really had some “peak” performance but in a short season ... if they regress any there is zip behind them.
#7 · November 16, 2020, 4:35 pm
OK, the $3MM bonus is deferred to ??? (Guessing 2022) .... plus Clevinger gets some performance bonuses built in for 2022 (guessing games started).
So the new contract maybe opens another $3-4MM from the expected arbitration call.
#8 · November 16, 2020, 5:50 pm
#9 · November 16, 2020, 6:33 pm
Just once it would be nice to not hear bad news . Just waiting on the other shoe to drop, I don't like being pessimistic but we are all thinking it
#10 · November 16, 2020, 10:59 pm
Quote from fenn68 on November 16, 2020, 4:35 pmOK, the $3MM bonus is deferred to ??? (Guessing 2022) .... plus Clevinger gets some performance bonuses built in for 2022 (guessing games started).
So the new contract maybe opens another $3-4MM from the expected arbitration call.
.... which means we are trying to replace Mike Clevinger in the rotation for 3-4 MM.... "fairly unlikely" with Robbie Ray at 8 MM, and Drew Smyly at 11 MM.
I'm normally a glass half full guy, but I don't see any way to overcome this with LAD in our division. There's not enough $ to spend to make a major addition, and even if there was, you'd be spending big bucks in a season where we don't have Clevinger. I had the Padres pegged as about the 12th-14th best team in MLB at deadline before adding Rosenthal (8th-9th) & Clevinger (4th-5th). We're worse than back to that now, b/c Garret Richards & Jurickson Profar & Mitch Moreland are all FA too. Realistically, there simply isn't enough $ to spend across the multiple needs now to get up to that elite level on paper.
Only silver lining I see is timing: happens before roster decisions/building which could conceivably REALLY shift now. Davies a presumable lock now. But have to really think about non-tendering Pham now. I personally wouldn't, but it won't surprise me at all now if they do; even though it will look like throwing in the towel.
I think the best bet is to sign a Closer, go cheap on the bench, sign some bottom of the barrel rebound SP/s. Then hope that the strong starting 8 lineup & maybe very good bullpen & young elite SP prospects can rise to the task & keep you close at trade deadline. THEN evaluate maybe making a move if you really think someone can put you over the top to be a legit playoff factor.