Quote from fenn68 on November 17, 2020, 6:33 am

Even before this, was worried about the Padres not built to over take the Dodgers for the Division .... basically playing for one of the currently structured two wild card slots in a one game playoff and the risk of quick out. Then a real difficult match up in a 7 game set with likely the LAD (as the best record team) in the NLDS.

If they approve the DH ... even worse since the Padres don’t have a legit ML bat for the DH role (money will need to go to fix that although probably can get some decent filler for less than $5MM but not a “game changer”). Would guess Mejia - Garcia - Ona - Allen would all be getting playing time as DH or in the field letting others DH ... that would make the 9th position player probably a net well below average hitter. That is not going to improve their odds of overtaking the LAD (or even making the Wild Card slot). If no DH, need a better set of PH options.

I guess with Pomeranz, Castillo, Strahm for the left side and Pagan, Adams, Johnson from the right side ... plus whoever survives for the other two slots .... the could be OK in the pen and hope one of those “hidden gems” materialize ... most common in RP. Always can look to the trade deadline again if still in contention. Sign a Rosenthal type and that would eat about $8MM (half of the money available?)

SP would be worse if the $11MM signing of Smyly is the bench mark .... high risk / marginal production. That level does get close to replacing a top of the rotation arm and not all that sure would be more productive than running through the internal prospects in 2021 and giving the internal prospect ML development for a 2022 with Clevinger’s return. (Note: Bauer is probably a $30MM+ signing ... not even in play ... given the money and holes in the rest of the roster).

Tough spot for the Padres but doubt this ownership will throw-in the towel for 2021 but thinking their moves will also be looking forward towards 2022 and Clevinger’s return (and Pham / Davies departures as FA). Might use the early part of the season to see what their current roster with MINOR adjustments delivers and how the rest of the league plays out ... then try for trade deadline moves to take the next step.

Hard to make any major move without the DH / playoff structure known lest they deploy the limited money to the wrong spot.

Have to think they tender Pham at the $8MM given this roster if they want to contend. Maybe he becomes a trade chip mid-season if things so south.

Hitting is my #1 worry ... real thin behind the eight starters and no DH and even those 8 starters have had some of the best seasons (Myers, Hosmer, Machado) and will the new players maintain their levels (Cronenworth, Grisham, Nola). All those performances in a “short season” ... 162 games opens up the time for a lot more “slumps” and leveling out production.

 

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on November 17, 2020, 7:43 am

Quote from hoffy51 on November 17, 2020, 3:05 am

First, it would really help to know if the NL is going to have the DH this season.

I don't really understand how much money they would save by releasing Pham, but IMHO they need to sign a starter for one year. If there is no DH, if they release Pham and let Ona play left field, and sign a starter. As far as a closer, I would let Austin Adams and Pomeranz handle it.

If they had 10 million to work with and the let Pham go could they sign Bauer for one year?

Bauer?

Lament

Davies

Paddock

Morejon

 

They would "save" about 8 MM if they let Pham go, but of course have a glaring hole in OF.  I think Myers is better defensively in LF, so there's that, but RF??   Welcome back Hunter Renfroe?

Assuming there is SOME kind of $$ restraint/limit on what Pads can do I think chasing after Bauer for only 1 year is exactly the wrong move...  it would essentially take ALL the $ the Pads have available:  maybe 25- 30 MM total including "saving" 4 MM on Clevinger & 8 MM on Pham and putting it into 1 guy who would be on a team without:

• Clevinger near top of rotation
• A "proven" closer
• A corner OF
• A DH
• Really any Bench

... "going for it" makes sense WITH Clevinger, but not without him at the expense of building the rest of the team.

Now if you could somehow wangle him on a multi-year contract... different story, but BIG $$ for a potential clubhouse splitter.

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on November 17, 2020, 8:28 am

Tough spot for the Padres but doubt this ownership will throw-in the towel for 2021 but thinking their moves will also be looking forward towards 2022 and Clevinger’s return (and Pham / Davies departures as FA). Might use the early part of the season to see what their current roster with MINOR adjustments delivers and how the rest of the league plays out ... then try for trade deadline moves to take the next step.

Hard to make any major move without the DH / playoff structure known lest they deploy the limited money to the wrong spot.

Have to think they tender Pham at the $8MM given this roster if they want to contend. Maybe he becomes a trade chip mid-season if things so south.

Hitting is my #1 worry ... real thin behind the eight starters... who will all start almost every game.

Good analysis as always... except last line.  Even with 4 top 100 MLB prospect SP's (plus M. Baez who was up there in the past); SP has to now be the biggest concern.   Many thought we needed a SP even WITH Clevinger.  Hard to see how to stretch the limited $ there to get anyone impactful.

I agree with your approach:  not much option but to hold strong starting 8 in field together & hope the bats/gloves keep you in most games.  RP could be very good, but need a RH closer:  Yates for 1 yr using Clevinger's "saved" $$ (+ a little) to me seems best use of that limited amount of $.  Young elite prospects cut their teeth now in 2021 & probably take some lumps...

But I could see the Pham N/T simply because he's not going to be there in 2022.  Try to find the replacement now vs then?

Yes, guys could falter, but only LAD & maybe Atlanta have 8 field starters who could all be top 100 MLB players.  Our bench is going to play less than most other teams platooning, etc.  I'm not arguing against a strong, better bench.  Just saying this is where  I go cheap with our  limited $ & look to plug holes at trade deadline.  If position player starters get hit hard by injury, we're screwed anyway.

 

Quote from hoffy51 on November 17, 2020, 9:34 am

I agree, I think we need to spend our money on a pitcher on a one year deal, and rely on what we have in the system, or low budget rentals, to fill in the rest. I think the bullpen will be fine. I think if the NL has the DH it will hurt us. 40 man rosters are to be set on Friday, right? When is MLB going to make a decision on the DH? Doesn't it have to be by Friday? How can teams plan? How are they to make decisions? Wow.

Quote from fenn68 on November 17, 2020, 9:38 am

Quote from hoffy51 on November 17, 2020, 9:34 am

I agree, I think we need to spend our money on a pitcher on a one year deal, and rely on what we have in the system, or low budget rentals, to fill in the rest. I think the bullpen will be fine. I think if the NL has the DH it will hurt us. 40 man rosters are to be set on Friday, right? When is MLB going to make a decision on the DH? Doesn't it have to be by Friday? How can teams plan? How are they to make decisions? Wow.

The 40 man for rule 5 by Friday .... doesn't really impact the 26 man roster construction for 2021.

Virtually zero chance the DH is decided by Friday ... I am just hoping by the opening of ST given the owners are demanding the union give us something to get it in.

Quote from hoffy51 on November 17, 2020, 10:01 am

Or playing devil's advocate, you could say, you know, we've got all this young pitching on the verge, we are just going to put Patino in there and give him the innings and let him improve (I am already counting on Morejon as a starter). Or Gore, or even see how Reggie Lawson does in Spring Training. Or God forbid even Weathers (I know, I know, that's way out there). I thought Lawson was lights out in AA before getting hurt. Anyway, take your available money and spend it on a possible DH, Profar, or relief pitching. Just a thought.

Quote from fenn68 on November 17, 2020, 10:37 am

Quote from hoffy51 on November 17, 2020, 10:01 am

Or playing devil's advocate, you could say, you know, we've got all this young pitching on the verge, we are just going to put Patino in there and give him the innings and let him improve (I am already counting on Morejon as a starter). Or Gore, or even see how Reggie Lawson does in Spring Training. Or God forbid even Weathers (I know, I know, that's way out there). I thought Lawson was lights out in AA before getting hurt. Anyway, take your available money and spend it on a possible DH, Profar, or relief pitching. Just a thought.

Lamet, Paddack, and Davies have to be what we expect. So two slots .... yeh, Morejon (L) - Gore (L) - Patino need to be tested with Lucchesi (haven't forgotten him) and Baez as the next level down. With the use of all SP these days (5 inning +/-) should be easy to manipulate innings to build them up.

Weathers (who they apparently really really like) and Lawson get going in AA and, if needed are late season replacement options.

ATL's model went well for them ... go with the young SP (Fried, Anderson, Soroka, et. al) for the last few years and put the money into offense Donaldson / Ozuna on big one year deals. Their shots at veteran SP has been less successful (e.g Hamels).

Some national media have been trying to push some expensive marginal FA arms on the Padres (because they need them) ... but pitchers with 4+ ERA are really not that much value to winning over running out the kids and taking that gamble.

If I am looking at winning for years forward ... and limited money now ... target a "big" offensive bat for the OF/DH that will have value long term since nothing coming in the system in the next 3ish years. Of course have to find that guy and be able to sign him (not that easy) but should be easier than finding a top level arm and signing him.

Want to shoot big .... Springer ($125MM / 5 years) gives offense / defense. $25MM AAV covered by DFA of Pham and "extra" to spend. Grisham - Springer - Myers 2021-22 then "maybe" for 2023 Abrams is in play to replace Myers. DH in that timeframe becomes rotational ... maybe Mejia ... but a hit first DH is pretty easy to find as a cheap FA.

Quote from Brian Connelly on November 17, 2020, 11:13 am

Want to shoot big .... Springer ($125MM / 5 years) gives offense / defense. $25MM AAV covered by DFA of Pham and "extra" to spend. Grisham - Springer - Myers 2021-22 then "maybe" for 2023 Abrams is in play to replace Myers. DH in that timeframe becomes rotational ... maybe Mejia ... but a hit first DH is pretty easy to find as a cheap FA.

Wow!  That would be going big.  Leaves "nothing" for:  SP, RP, or bench though...  and would likely REALLY have to backload the contract into the last 3 years.  If you could keep him to 12-15 MM in 2021... MAYBE

Smaller scale I was thinking could add the Clevinger 4 MM saved to the Pham 8 MM saved in 2021 & go for Michael Brantley "the perfect fit for teams seeking a productive contact hitter who can handle LF" (MLBTR).   MLBTR has him as #13 FA projected at 2/28.  This would be (roughly) salary & production "neutral" to what we thought Pads would spend on Clevinger + Pham, but has the benefit of filling LF for 2022 now.... but at low 8 figures.   LH vs RH Pham, but he's 1-2 years older too.

What do you guys think?

Final geek note:  Sure you meant "Non Tender" Pham, not DFA.  If we tendered him THEN DFA'd later, we would end up on the hook for his arb salary (would go through waivers unclaimed, then sign as a a FA at minimum somewhere).  Have to either Non Tender Pham or gamble you can trade him at/near full salary if you Tender him & make a subsequent FA move like above...risky

Quote from Brian Connelly on November 17, 2020, 11:15 am

Quote from hoffy51 on November 17, 2020, 10:01 am

Or playing devil's advocate, you could say, you know, we've got all this young pitching on the verge, we are just going to put Patino in there and give him the innings and let him improve (I am already counting on Morejon as a starter). Or Gore, or even see how Reggie Lawson does in Spring Training. Or God forbid even Weathers (I know, I know, that's way out there). I thought Lawson was lights out in AA before getting hurt. Anyway, take your available money and spend it on a possible DH, Profar, or relief pitching. Just a thought.

Agree.  If you need SP by trade deadline, there should be sellers looking to dump $; WAY better "value" than overpaying for it now