Quote from Henry Silvestre on August 20, 2022, 7:58 am

Quote from fenn68 on August 20, 2022, 7:51 am

Continuing with my downbeat mood … should we start considering Manny Machado opting out after the 2023 season.

Machado recently said he want to play for a long time like Cruz into his 40s.

Machado is currently #4 in MLB in WAR (even after a dismal July hampered by recovering from the ankle injury).

Expect some BIG deals this winter for FA (see Judge, Turner, et al) setting the AAV bar higher.

At the end of 2023, Machado will be on a $150MM / 5 year deal ($30MM AAV) for seasons ages 32-36.

He will have a great case for boosting his AAV and getting a contract longer (probably a lot longer) than 5 years. For him getting the longer deal now is more strategic than trying to get the money as a FA at age 37.

That is the financial side … but also may have to consider the on-field side. If the Padres miss the playoffs this year … lose key players (and miss the playoffs) in 2023 … and are projected to lose more for 2024 (with little in the minors) … he may just look to land with a legit contender going forward and still think he would prefer to return to the East Coast (near Miami) although money is the key factor.

 

STOP... I am feeling good today 😆 🤣 😂

Quote from WindsorUK on August 20, 2022, 10:18 am

Quote from fenn68 on August 20, 2022, 7:51 am

Continuing with my downbeat mood … should we start considering Manny Machado opting out after the 2023 season.

Machado recently said he want to play for a long time like Cruz into his 40s.

Machado is currently #4 in MLB in WAR (even after a dismal July hampered by recovering from the ankle injury).

Expect some BIG deals this winter for FA (see Judge, Turner, et al) setting the AAV bar higher.

At the end of 2023, Machado will be on a $150MM / 5 year deal ($30MM AAV) for seasons ages 32-36.

He will have a great case for boosting his AAV and getting a contract longer (probably a lot longer) than 5 years. For him getting the longer deal now is more strategic than trying to get the money as a FA at age 37.

That is the financial side … but also may have to consider the on-field side. If the Padres miss the playoffs this year … lose key players (and miss the playoffs) in 2023 … and are projected to lose more for 2024 (with little in the minors) … he may just look to land with a legit contender going forward and still think he would prefer to return to the East Coast (near Miami) although money is the key factor.

 

I was thinking the same thing about Manny.

Preller has tried every trick in the book to help this team win but has failed at every step. If Seidler doesn't show he's willing to change, I can certainly see Manny exercising his option.

This team has absolutely ZERO help from the farm system coming, almost no spending flexibility( unless Seidler wants to go way over spending cap), and an incredibly under performing roster.

Maybe a case of moving him while he's still at the top of his game? What does that market look like?

Quote from MrPadre19 on August 20, 2022, 12:18 pm

Even as depressed as I am right now due to the way this team is playing I still feel there is “no way” we don’t make the Playoffs in 2023.

Barring injuries to the Big 3 on offense and our top 3 starters of course.

This is not the Angels.

With Crone/Kim/Grisham around Tatis/Machado/Soto we aren’t missing the playoffs.

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on August 20, 2022, 12:23 pm

Also don’t see AJ trading Machado after gutting the Farm to add Soto.

It sure would help to have a great 23’ and at least a deep playoff run to convince Manny to stay….or in the least have him re-negotiate to extend a couple more seasons.

Instead of 5/$150 what about 7/$200 or 8/$220

That guarantees him $50/$70 more mil and gets him to the Hall of Fame in a Brown hat.

 

 

Quote from fenn68 on August 20, 2022, 12:32 pm

But this is about the multitude of reasons Manny will (should for his sake) opt out … not making the playoffs is but one to pile on.

2024 - 2028 is shaping up to be a barren period for the Padres with only Tatis lasting to the end. Big drop after 2023 and Soto gone after 2024 (if not traded first). Nothing coming from the farm soon and optimistic to have a wave of productive talent in place for even 2026.

Manny served his time during the first Padre rebuild … probably not eager to go that route again while leaving money on the table.

Quote from fenn68 on August 20, 2022, 12:35 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on August 20, 2022, 12:23 pm

Also don’t see AJ trading Machado after gutting the Farm to add Soto.

It sure would help to have a great 23’ and at least a deep playoff run to convince Manny to stay….or in the least have him re-negotiate to extend a couple more seasons.

Instead of 5/$150 what about 7/$200 or 8/$220

That guarantees him $50/$70 more mil and gets him to the Hall of Fame in a Brown hat.

 

 

Between $280MM/8 years - $350/MM/10 years … will seek and get a $35MM AAV and will want a better deal than Tatis.

Quote from MrPadre19 on August 21, 2022, 6:39 am

And if we keep Soto?

You don’t think Manny would want to be part of the Soto/Machado/Tatis trio?

I don’t care who you put around them….wouldn’t take much to keep that a winning lineup with Soto and Tatis just hitting their prime.

Those 3 would be approx $110…leaves another $140 to play with.

 

Quote from Henry Silvestre on August 21, 2022, 7:00 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on August 21, 2022, 6:39 am

And if we keep Soto?

You don’t think Manny would want to be part of the Soto/Machado/Tatis trio?

I don’t care who you put around them….wouldn’t take much to keep that a winning lineup with Soto and Tatis just hitting their prime.

Those 3 would be approx $110…leaves another $140 to play with.

 

With those 3 and guys like Merrill and Doersching ready by 2024.. Pads can start 2 rookies and not worry about much ..Zavala CF and others 1 yr behind them.. The Padres can do very well 2025-2030 while spending Big on the Big 3 ..amd subsidizing 2 or 3 positions with controlled youth... sprinkle in a vet or 2 and some luck on low prize FA's and the Position player side of things has a path foward

P Wise ...Not worried about the BP at all.. looks deep and controlled thru the next 1/2 Decade+ with our current stable of arms

Which leads to SP

This is where Musgrove (2027).. is the only MLB SP currently controlled long term.. I expect at least 1 (3yr+ 2025? Longer) control add in the offseason... The Decelopment of young guns .. even 3-5th type SP will be crucial for 24 - 25 and beyond.. it starts with 2023 though.. we need one of Groome (likely) /Khner or Wethers to at least be Nick Martinez like in 2023.. #6/#5 type.. Morejon probably the likeliest to be Nick like with his low IP track record.. SP for 10 or so starts ..them BP around mid June... Groome looks like he can give us at least Menaea type production from the 5th SP spot...

Snell (extension) could be the key to a long sustainable window beyond 2023..

Quote from fenn68 on August 21, 2022, 7:04 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on August 21, 2022, 6:39 am

And if we keep Soto?

You don’t think Manny would want to be part of the Soto/Machado/Tatis trio?

I don’t care who you put around them….wouldn’t take much to keep that a winning lineup with Soto and Tatis just hitting their prime.

Those 3 would be approx $110…leaves another $140 to play with.

 

He would IF he is paid.

Don’t forget Musgrove is on the tab for $20MM. Take those four and add the “benefits” and there should be about $100MM left for the other 22 players to keep them under the tax level. Going to need a lot of league minimum guys being productive for years to pay for some more veteran pieces to round out the roster (especially SP).

Potentially a lot of churn of the younger players every year to keep the payroll under control.