Quote from Brian Connelly on September 16, 2020, 6:08 pm

I took a too deep dive into LAD today.  Frustrating but fascinating the similarities to Padres organization wise.  Looked at:

1. Starting Pitching:   Demoralizing to see in 2020-2021:  Kershaw, Buehler, Gonsolin, May, & Julio Urias.    29 yr old FA to be Alex Wood with 137 MLB starts is buried in the pen, and former 5th SP Ross Stripling got unceremoniously dumped at trade deadline.  That after #5/swingman Kenta Maeda traded for Brudsar Graterol in offseason.  David Price returns next year & Top 100 MLB (#67) Josiah Gray in the wings (reached AA 2019).  Yikes.    Look at this pattern:  FREE AGENTS  after 2020:  LAD - A. Wood  / SD - G. Richards,   after 2021:  LAD - KERSHAW / SD - Davies, after 2022:  LAD - Price / SD - CLEVINGER, after 2023:  LAD - J. Urias / SD - LAMET.  In other words, LAD have same "built in" pattern of losing 1 SP to FA / year for next 4 seasons.  We have more elite SP prospects, but LAD's are already in MLB dominating us so far... similarities go even further (see Farm System below).
2. Free Agency:  LAD have these upcoming FA:  3B- Turner, OF - J. Pederson & Kiki Hernandez, SP - Wood, RP- Blake Treinen & Pedro Baez.   Only guy who seems "critical" to re-sign is Turner.  But Edwin Rios plays 3B, so can Muncy, and a top 5 prospect is 3B.  That's a "need" position for LAD.  Sigh.  They'll need a backup OF.  Hmmm.... wonder what super utility SH INF/OF they'll be in the market for driving the price up on?  Sigh.  Wood & Baez expendable.  Treinen is very good, but Graterol looks like a built in replacement.  Sigh.
3. Farm System:    Using Baseball America's Prospect Handbook:  LAD Traded their # 6 (SS/2B - J. Downs)  & # 15 (C - C. Wong) prospects for: Betts, but received Minnesota's #4 (Graterol) prospect for Maeda.  However, their #1 (Lux), #2 (May), #4 (Gonsolin), & #13 (Edwin Rios) prospects have GRADUATED, and Graterol is "on the verge" & might by season end.  SD of course Traded their (deep breath...):  #4 (Trammell), #7 (A. Munoz), #9 (G. Arias), #11 (Cantillo), #12 (O. Miller), #13 (Bolanos), #16 (Potts), #17 (Olivares), #24 (J. Rosario), & #27 (C - L. Driscoll) for:  Nola, Clevinger, T. Hill, Moreland, & Rosenthal!  SD received Oakland's #8 (Jorge Mateo) for a PTBNL that could be a 20-30 range prospect.  However, "only" #15 (Cronenworth) has GRADUATED, with "only" #23 (J. Guerra) looking like he will remain "on the verge".

LAD system next year projects to have 2 - 4 Top 100 MLB prospects, but 1 of them is Graterol.  "Likely":  2

SD system next year projects to have 5-7 Top 100 MLB prospects.  5 on MLB.com not Incl:  Morejon, Weathers. "Likely":  6

So SD's system next year will be rated higher than LAD's, but of course, this is simply b/c LAD's top talent is already now MLB!  Padres pretty easily project to graduate in 2021 our: #1 (Gore), #2 (Patino), #5 (Campusano), #6 (Morejon), & #8 (M. Baez).

So in 2022 we will fall back on Farm System rating:  Will be interesting to see where we are relative to LAD then    Similarities extend even further:  LAD used their 1st 2 draft picks last year on RHP; their current (MLB.com) #9 & 10 prospects... very similar to Wilcox & Lange for us. 

Bottom line:  Preller & Owners are pulling every string humanly possible, but these guys are tough to catch! 

Quote from Brian Connelly on September 16, 2020, 6:18 pm

Quote from fenn68 on September 16, 2020, 4:46 pm

Quote from Brian Connelly on September 16, 2020, 3:35 pm

Quote from fenn68 on September 16, 2020, 1:34 pm

Ona starting as DH again today ... Padres really must want to see what they have in him now.

Castro is catching so it could have been Nola .... or the newly recalled Mejia.

We expect Pham to return and likely bump Ona BUT I guess if Pham just is not productive upon his return ... Ona may be a playoff option ... so needs ABs.

I'm pretty sure in a playoff roster decision I'm going with Tommy Pham over Jorge Ona...

Thinking more of Ona as a potential DH/PH vs LHP and kept ahead of the 15 pitcher not instead of Pham.

OK, POSSIBLE he makes the 3 game series roster.  But I can't imagine in that series him DH > a healthy Pham or Profar.  RH pop off bench as PH... possible.

Quote from fenn68 on September 16, 2020, 8:41 pm

Quote from Brian Connelly on September 16, 2020, 6:18 pm

Quote from fenn68 on September 16, 2020, 4:46 pm

Quote from Brian Connelly on September 16, 2020, 3:35 pm

Quote from fenn68 on September 16, 2020, 1:34 pm

Ona starting as DH again today ... Padres really must want to see what they have in him now.

Castro is catching so it could have been Nola .... or the newly recalled Mejia.

We expect Pham to return and likely bump Ona BUT I guess if Pham just is not productive upon his return ... Ona may be a playoff option ... so needs ABs.

I'm pretty sure in a playoff roster decision I'm going with Tommy Pham over Jorge Ona...

Thinking more of Ona as a potential DH/PH vs LHP and kept ahead of the 15 pitcher not instead of Pham.

OK, POSSIBLE he makes the 3 game series roster.  But I can't imagine in that series him DH > a healthy Pham or Profar.  RH pop off bench as PH... possible.

Agree ... more of a depth issue vs. the 15th pitcher in a 3 game series after 2 off days. Less likely for the 5 game series.