Quote from Randy Manese on December 29, 2020, 12:26 pm

My thought is that the potential loss of Turner, Hernandez and Pederson and being underplayed as how it could affect the Dodgers offense.  It is because of this depth that the Dodgers rolled in previous years and all three guys, if lost, are going to cost the Dodgers several games they would have won had they retained them - the potential replacements for them have not proven yet that they are reliable and can come through in clutch situations.  Dodgers will still be strong but not as in the past couple of years.

Quote from fenn68 on December 29, 2020, 12:50 pm

Sure closer match that before. Need to wait a bit until LAD make their moves. Sounding that if they don’t sign LeMahieu (in the mix) they may return to Turner. Also, skulking around for one of the better RP.

However, no matter what they do .... setting up for a pretty equal battle in 2021 if all the Padres remain healthy (and all the LAD remain healthy).

A Darvish - Snell (L) - Lamet top 3 SP will make a world of difference ... almost no matter who fills out the other slots (Paddack plus prospect). They should have the offense. Should get to the playoffs and in a full playoff series with the LAD ... more than a “chance”.

Quote from Ben Davey on December 29, 2020, 11:56 pm

I would take Lux over Cro and Muncy over Hos in a heart beat.  I'd also happily take LA's bench over the Padres.  Also where is Dustin May?  He should be starting over Stripling.

I know the point you are trying to make is that we are a lot closer, but there is a very good reason why the Dodgers were viewed as the most dominant team in baseball by a wide margin last year, and are still viewed that way this year.

Really, if we think they re both dominant offenses the difference comes down to the pitching, in the playoffs we were hoping that Clev/Lamet/Davies would be able to keep it close.  Now we KNOW that Yu, Snell, Lamet can match the best the Dodgers can throw at us pitch for pitch.  The difference to me is going to be health and the development of our young pitchers (Gore, Morejon, Paddack) verse their young pitchers (May, Gonsolin, Urias).  IMO the entire 2021 season could come down to one of those players on both sides having to get critical outs in a Game 6/7.  Who fails will be the difference between a good season and another WS.

Quote from fenn68 on December 30, 2020, 6:10 am

Since the best team on paper is not always the World Series winner ... and that really is the objective ... I sort of look at setting up a team that is good enough to make the playoffs then good enough to match up and win in the playoff short series format.

Padres have the quality and depth to win enough games over a 162 game schedule to make the playoffs (plus if win the NL West but not necessary). Should win enough to have a better record than the 2nd place clubs from the East / Central and any of the non-LA West teams. The #4, #5, #6 SP options (depth) really set the Padres apart from their competitors and that will generate the wins.

The key is that now they have Darvish, Snell, and Lamet (TOR arms all) to take the first three (and probably last three) in a 7 games series. Pitching will neutralize the hitters .. think WASH a couple of years ago (didn’t win NL East).

Padres should be right there and maybe health and luck is the decider on the World Series.

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 30, 2020, 6:30 am

I would disagree with putting Lux over Cronenworth until he actually proves it.

Cronenworth is a perfect example himself that the expectation doesn't always match the actual performance.

Cronenworth outplayed his expectation....will Lux?

Maybe he underperforms?

Could Lux be better?

Sure,but Crone should have been Rookie of the Year....Lux needs to "show" us he's better before we can just assume.

IMO of course.

Quote from BoosterSD on December 30, 2020, 6:47 am

Quote from Ben Davey on December 29, 2020, 11:56 pm

I would take Lux over Cro and Muncy over Hos in a heart beat.  I'd also happily take LA's bench over the Padres.  Also where is Dustin May?  He should be starting over Stripling.

I know the point you are trying to make is that we are a lot closer, but there is a very good reason why the Dodgers were viewed as the most dominant team in baseball by a wide margin last year, and are still viewed that way this year.

Really, if we think they re both dominant offenses the difference comes down to the pitching, in the playoffs we were hoping that Clev/Lamet/Davies would be able to keep it close.  Now we KNOW that Yu, Snell, Lamet can match the best the Dodgers can throw at us pitch for pitch.  The difference to me is going to be health and the development of our young pitchers (Gore, Morejon, Paddack) verse their young pitchers (May, Gonsolin, Urias).  IMO the entire 2021 season could come down to one of those players on both sides having to get critical outs in a Game 6/7.  Who fails will be the difference between a good season and another WS.

I understand the reputation that Lux has coming through the MiL, and Cronenworth was a nice 2020 surprise. And Muncy has performed well since joining the LAD. However, according to WAR, both Hos and Cro outperformed the LAD counterparts. And between Muncy and Hos, it wasnt even close in 2020. Will Hos be his 2020 player in 2021, we hope so.

May, by CBS Sportsline, was part of LAD bullpen. I understand that he has massive potential as a starter. But as I mentioned, I just took CBS depth chart for comparison.

I agree, our "kids" versus their "kids" will really be a big point in 2021. I just think, and the national media that I have been listening to for the last 48 hours, believe that their is no longer a huge gap between us and the Duds.

Lets all hope that we have a true season, with healthy players, especially our Pads :-), and we see some great division battles this season!!

Quote from fenn68 on December 30, 2020, 8:19 am

If (as I do) the Padres should have a clear advantage in wins over SF, COLO, AZ in 2021 then probably a lock for a Wild Card since most seem to think the winner of the NL Central struggling to win 85 games meaning the 2nd place team has very little chance of gaining a Wild Card slot.

So, NL East is the issue with early odds (after some more winter moves) will be ATL and Mets in some order ... with one or the other Wild Card and potential Padres’ opponent.

If the one game Wild Card play in remains ... hard to forecast which opponent pitcher is lined up if there is a neck and neck race for the NL East winner. Padres should be OK with one of Darvish, Snell, or Lamet for the play-in then the other two to start the full series (likely vs. the LAD with the best record projection). That is a workable scenario to win the Wild Card and be fully set for the 7 game set with LAD.

Better they win the NL West, of course and then get lucky in the playoffs.

Quote from Ben Davey on December 30, 2020, 10:53 am

Muncy had a horrendous 2020 season, but was one of the bigger reasons the Dodgers won the WS (I HATED watching his AB as he worked very count full and did really well to tire out the pitcher.)  He was also an all star in 2019, and received MVP votes in both 2018 and 2019.... What has Hos done?  If you assume there is a DH next year where does Hos bat?  6th?  7th?  I am just not a big Hosmer fan.

As someone who has seen Lux play throughout the minors, I was never surprised by his lofty prospect ranking.  He is every bit as good as his ranking.  Of course as a Padre fan I hope he doesnt.  There was an issue this past season with him not hustling but if you offered Preller Lux for Cro he would say yes before you even finished "nenworth"

Kershaw spent most of the year injured, but was healthy for the playoffs.  If Kershaw or Walker are injured going into the 2020 post season, I dont think they win the WS.

I also think, to Fenn's point that winning the NL West becomes even more important if the playoffs go back to the 1 game WC playoff.  Our team is now built for the playoffs, but in a one game playoff could the Padres go against Castillo and the Reds and get shut down?  (Could you also see a Castillo, Bauer, or Syndeguard shutting down he Dodgers and knocking them out in a one game playoff?  Completely)

Quote from Randy Manese on December 30, 2020, 11:55 am

Current Dodger coaching staff has Roberts, Prior and Geren who are all ex-Padres players although Prior didn't actually throw a pitch for them.   Lots of good baseball people have come out of the Padres organization over the years and made their marks elsewhere.