Quote from Jeremy Hill on April 23, 2023, 6:38 am

My eyes and the data tell me the same thing with Soto. He's still hitting the ball hard, but he's getting on top of the ball and pulling everything. I guess the good news is even like this his numbers should get much better as more of those hard hit grounders start turning into hits. He's going to have to start going the other way again to get back to being the guy he used to be though. He can't touch lefties right now and most of the weak contact he's making is because he's still pulling and rolling over on pitches away from him on the outer half. He only has 1 opposite field hit on the season. The old Soto sprayed line drives all over the field.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on April 23, 2023, 7:51 am

Quote from Jeremy Hill on April 23, 2023, 6:38 am

My eyes and the data tell me the same thing with Soto. He's still hitting the ball hard, but he's getting on top of the ball and pulling everything. I guess the good news is even like this his numbers should get much better as more of those hard hit grounders start turning into hits. He's going to have to start going the other way again to get back to being the guy he used to be though. He can't touch lefties right now and most of the weak contact he's making is because he's still pulling and rolling over on pitches away from him on the outer half. He only has 1 opposite field hit on the season. The old Soto sprayed line drives all over the field.

I don't want to make excuses for him.. but that Oblique injury set him back a month in my view.. and the WBC (no new rules) didn't let him work on his "New" approach (quicker no thinking as much)... with that said I believe his Wrc+ is like 123 as a Padre which is still very good (just not 100% Soto like)..

Quote from fenn68 on April 26, 2023, 12:23 pm

Beginning to hear a lot of blame for Soto's woes on everyone / everything but Soto ... and a lot is SD focused BUT his issues began in WASH in 2022. Consider:

313/465/534 (999) ... 2021 (WASH) ... that is what SD bought ... since

241/406/443 (849) ... 2022 / APR (WASH)

235/366/451 (817) ... MAY (WASH)

195/358/414 (772) ... JUN (WASH)

315/495/616 (1.111) ... JUL (WASH) ... the tease before the trade

265/435/470 (905) ... AUG (SD)

220/366/360 (726) ... SEP (SD)

188/355/365 (720) ... 2023

Note that he declined right out of the blocks in 2022 while in WASH and kept that decline over the first 3 months ... got hot in July then the trade and just returned to his declining path.

So we should be asking what changed him between 2021 and 2022 ... that is when the old Soto really significantly hit the skids.

Quote from Jeremy Hill on April 26, 2023, 8:07 pm

If nothing else I think they might want to consider dropping Soto way down in the lineup against lefties. I saw Melvin say that Soto doesn't want a day off and wants to swing his way through it. He doesn't look like he wants to swing at all against lefties though.

His numbers against right handers were still very good last year. It might not have been peak Soto, but .261/.431/.511 is still a great line. His numbers against lefties were down much more at .210/.348/.354. His numbers against right handers are down a little more in the early going, but still very good at .231/.412/.481 coming into tonight's game. He also looks much more aggressive against right handers. His numbers against lefties have cratered down to .121/.256/.182 coming into tonight's game and will be even worse after his 0-4 performance against the Cubs lefties tonight. He looks like he's praying for a walk and has no chance hitting balls to the outside part of the plate from lefties right now. It's just not going to happen with how pull happy he is at the moment.

Quote from fenn68 on April 28, 2023, 2:01 pm

UNCONFIRMED SECOND HAND RUMOR … reportedly originating with Nightengale:

Internally the Padres have plan to go “all in” on signing Ohtani next winter … and will NOT pursue an extension with Soto. (I am OK with that)

______________________________

That could make 2024 a very expensive year with BOTH Soto and Ohtani … UNLESS … they choose to trade / non-tender Soto to clear his $23MM+ potential salary in 2024. I guess the 2024 choice on Soto will depend on the rest of his season and IF they succeed in signing Ohtani. Also, the unlikely event that they non-tender Soto would have to happen probably before they know on Ohtani.

That is all TBD but the key is a Padres all in on Ohtani.

Quote from BoosterSD on April 28, 2023, 7:18 pm

Quote from fenn68 on April 28, 2023, 2:01 pm

That is all TBD but the key is a Padres all in on Ohtani.

So with Ohtani, from my listening on MLB on XM, he has to be part of a 6 man rotation. If that is correct, then you need 5 other SPs. We got Darvish and Musgrove, then would need to make sure that Weathers is ready, maybe Honeywell, Lugo builds up enough for a entire season as SP, and Wacha if he doesnt opt out. Just from his last performance, I think Martinez is so much better out of the pen, but maybe you can count him as well.

With Ohtani at DH full time, then you dont need either Cruz or Carpenter, so some money saved there. And since Ohtani doesnt play OF any more, then do you live with an OF of Azocar, Grisham, and Tatis?

And of course, Ohtani probably gets $50M per season.

Side thought, wonder if SD could work some trade this season; if ANA is out the playoff hunt, built around Soto and prospects for Ohtani?

Quote from fenn68 on April 29, 2023, 2:25 am

I believe the Padres can keep both Wacha and Martinez IF they exercise the club option part of the deal (at $16MM / year) … if the club declines that both can opt in at about $8MM. At least based on their performances … $16MM/yr seems overpay … even if Siedler is opening the wallet.

Soto has to be at risk from a payroll standpoint in that scenario … more money for SP and the possibility they extend Hader added to Ohtani is a major increase. Not much in scheduled offsets other than Hader: Snell; Pomeranz; Garcia don’t quite cover Ohtani’s estimated salary. Note that both Carpenter and Lugo have player options … Carpenter at 38+/- will likely stay for $5MM while Lugo (if he remains pitching well) will likely opt out (but could be re-signed). Padres may have to take some lower cost gambles to fill out the SP (and RP) plus LF … but Ohtani is worth it.

Ohtani - Darvish - Musgrove  then roll the dice on Weathers - Honeywell - TBD. That TBD could be the Padres retaining one of Martinez (favorite) - Lugo - Wacha. Would have said Groome but his performance in AAA has been very underwhelming and not much else in EP. Maybe Wolf up from AA (he is pitching well). Most likely the try to sign a new SP in the mold of Lugo/Wacha/Martinez (maybe two) in that $8MM range. LF is anybody’s guess but Carpenter / Azocar would be the leaders until someone beats them out.

Plopping $50MM / yr on Ohtani is a big hit … but he is worth it beyond his talent he reportedly generates an additional $20MM in club revenue for the Japan market.

What to do with Soto … who would get a rise in arbitration (just because that is how it works) from the $23MM? I guess Siedler could eat it and retain him for 2024 only. Trading him (and his salary) would be tough unless he really rebounds …

Quote from Henry Silvestre on May 3, 2023, 4:27 pm

Juan Soto in his last 6 games:

PA 29
AB 20
BA .450
H 9
2B 4
HR 1
XBH 5
TB 16
RBI 8
BB 9
SO 4
OBP .621
SLG .800
OPS 1.421

Quote from Jeremy Hill on May 4, 2023, 12:31 am

He's starting to get back on track. I still want to see him start going opposite field more and getting it done against lefties. That's when we'll know he's all the way back. Kershaw and Urias should be a nice test.