Quote from Randy Manese on August 27, 2022, 12:54 am

Preller did not and will not lose the Soto and Bell for 5 prospects trade.  You are comparing apples to oranges.  Soto is one of the most gifted hitters of his generation but even he, like Mike Trout, can't take a "team" to the play-offs - it has to be a team/organizational effort.  The window for being competitive enough to make the playoffs/World Series is relatively small for a team that doesn't have unlimited resources like the Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox, etc.  Unless your objective is just to play out a season and have a good minor league system, then you have to put yourself in the best position possible during that small window of opportunity to compete and hopefully to win.  While I follow all our minor league prospects extremely closely and hate to see them traded, we are a far better team for the next 2 1/2 years after the trade deadline than before and have a far better opportunity to play meaningful games in October.

Further, it would be highly unlikely that we would be successful in trying to outbid the Dodgers, Yankees, etc. to land a free-agent Soto.  In the next 2 1/2 years, however, those prospects traded are likely not going to make a difference in the Padres quest for post-season play.  Wood may be at AA, Hassell at AAA and Abrams (if he can improve his BB rate) may be giving Washington what we see flashes of from Kim or expect of Cronenworth.  In the meantime, who. plays the OF for SD?  Wouldn't we trade some of these same prospects to get someone of lesser talent?  Who is available that will make a real difference?  Look at the numbers.  Look at his age.

So much negativity.   Remember when we thought our minor leagues were stacked with future aces - all possible #1 starters - Gore, Patino, Paddack, Morejon, even Baez.  Didn't work out did it.  Hitters are not as volatile or subject to injury but they do sometimes hit a wall.  Soto is arguably the most consistent elite player in the game today and, at his age, will only get better in the next 2 1/2 years.  Enjoy him while we have him.

P.S.  Wood's stats, including wRC+, have all gone down since his move to Fredericksburg.  Check them out on Fangraphs, if you have it.   So have Hassell's.  So have Abrams.  Gore unlikely to pitch and may have TJ.  Susana losing a little bit of his command in Florida, but still a horse in the Rookie (Florida Complex) League - a long way away from Washington D.C.

Quote from Personal Fable on August 28, 2022, 10:02 pm

 

Quote from Randy Manese on August 27, 2022, 12:54 am

Preller did not and will not lose the Soto and Bell for 5 prospects trade.

He lost the trade the second Tatis was popped. This year was the best shot at the title and is the culmination of a dozen trades and 60+ prospects moved. All that future value just to hope to make the playoffs and luck your way into a deep run.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on August 29, 2022, 9:23 am

Quote from Personal Fable on August 28, 2022, 10:02 pm

 

Quote from Randy Manese on August 27, 2022, 12:54 am

Preller did not and will not lose the Soto and Bell for 5 prospects trade.

He lost the trade the second Tatis was popped. This year was the best shot at the title and is the culmination of a dozen trades and 60+ prospects moved. All that future value just to hope to make the playoffs and luck your way into a deep run.

Nah ..with Tatis missing the 1st 100+ games (even with no suspencion) the best shot will be in 2023...

Even with Tatis back we would have been without our 3 best BP arms Pomz/Johnson and Adams most likely in the post season.. and we are likely not going to lose any SP in the offseason.. Clevinger 💯  resigning and my Grandma who passed away 4 decades ago can pitch >Manaea...

I think AJP will address C in offseason as well and that will be the final piece in my opinion

Bell back

Clev back

Tatis >Profar in LF.. Tatis>Grisham in CF

IF same Manny/Kim/Crone/Bell..

OF Soto/Grish/Azocar/Tatis 💯 >

C Look for Contreras/Vazquez as FA.. Tyler Stephenson/Murphy as trade acquisitions

 

$$$ wise I would concentrate on quality vs quantity in FA.. resign Bell 4/60.. resign Clev 3+1 3/36..4/50 type deal..

Go thrifty of on 5th SP.. Davies/Eflin type 3/15 type $$.. and go get the C.. 4/40 for V or 5/75 for Contreras

$57 mil per added to payroll... 1B/C/SP4/SP5 all addressed..

Arb $$ savings Hader $13mil/Alfaro $4mil/opt out $$ saved Profar?? Still not sure he opts out..$8mil... + Wil + Manaea =$30.... there is your $55-$57mil

Quote from fenn68 on August 29, 2022, 11:11 am

Don’t forget they will have to cover the full year of Soto’s arb dollars (that will be a big hit) and an arb for Cronenworth (2X All-Star) will be a big jump.

Last I played the money game … non-tender Hader and Alfaro will get the money for Bell (with a little left over) and keep the Padres just under the tax threshold if Profar / Marintez / Suarez opt in. If the Padres buy out all three, maybe another $15MM to deploy … but a major hole in the pen.

Unless they go way over the tax level … have to make the call which project hole is most critical and which position fill will cost the most to fill with quality. That may not be 1B/DH if they assume Tatis’ return and a full season of Soto will be a significant offense boost … go with a cheaper alternative for 1B/DH and then aim the money on one quality SP or C (likely a strong defensive option) if no faith in Campusano. Nola will stay since he handles Darvish and the returning staff well. Have to focus on a SP for #4 roles and then maybe let Morejon and Groome work out #5 and #6 … system really has nothing near term after them given the way Weathers has cratered.

I would trade to fill a hole (with a lower cost option) but other than Merrill … not much left to get quality that is at low salary.

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on August 29, 2022, 11:19 am

We have to keep Martinez and Suarez.

Even if they opt out we need to try to sign them.

Martinez versatility is huge and I see Suarez as our 8th inning guy next year or even the Closer.

Suarez/Castillo at the back end is pretty good and inexpensive.

Does Pomeranz sign a 1 year prove it deal?

 

Quote from fenn68 on August 29, 2022, 11:36 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on August 29, 2022, 11:19 am

We have to keep Martinez and Suarez.

Even if they opt out we need to try to sign them.

Martinez versatility is huge and I see Suarez as our 8th inning guy next year or even the Closer.

Suarez/Castillo at the back end is pretty good and inexpensive.

Does Pomeranz sign a 1 year prove it deal?

 

Pomeranz is under contract … so Padres are on the hook for for his salary unless they put him on waivers and someone claims him (unlikely give his contract and injuries).

$10MM cash ($8.5MM AAV).

Quote from Personal Fable on August 29, 2022, 4:58 pm

Quote from Henry Silvestre on August 29, 2022, 9:23

Nah ..with Tatis missing the 1st 100+ games (even with no suspencion) the best shot will be in 2023...

Even with Tatis back we would have been without our 3 best BP arms Pomz/Johnson and Adams most likely in the post season.. and we are likely not going to lose any SP in the offseason.. Clevinger 💯  resigning and my Grandma who passed away 4 decades ago can pitch

I don't know what to tell you, this is pure copium. A roster doesn't get better when the cost controlled aspects of it are no longer cost controlled and you're paying market value. The deal was obviously made with the playoffs in mind which makes Tatis' absence inconsequential since he was expected back for the run.

A reliever that's pitched 40 innings in 3 seasons for us, that's who you're depending on? He had even more limitations than his lack of play as a 1 inning non-consecutive outing reliever. Then the HBP machine Adams? Come on. Our 2 best relievers (Martinez, Suarez) get to walk this year.

Quote from fenn68 on August 29, 2022, 5:18 pm

Given the situation … Hader should be given some “personal time” to work though the home life issues and maybe settle his mind. Does not seem an injury issue at this time. If that is back in MILW … so be it. If it is moving his wife/child to SD to be near … so be it.

Hard to know the Padres logic in the deal but the birth was in June … Hader had struggles in July … pretty sure they did due diligence then concluded that the gamble on one of the best closers in the past 5 years was needed for the 2022 pennant run and if they plan to contend in 2023 he would be a critical piece.

Have to step back from the moment and look at the longer term. Have to believe if there is no physical issue (and appears not) it is emotional … and some time can (should) right him to his dominant form. He is only 28 and the stuff seems to be still there.

Even if he does not rebound in 2022 (good chance he does) but a top form Hader in 2023 would do a lot in winning / playoffs.

However, had a former boss who focused on “good decisions” based on the information at the time being the important factor but some times “good decisions” can have bad outcomes. Hope this is not one of those circumstances. PS: he got fired for too many “good decisions” with “bad outcomes”.

Quote from MrPadre19 on August 29, 2022, 7:24 pm

Quote from fenn68 on August 29, 2022, 11:36 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on August 29, 2022, 11:19 am

We have to keep Martinez and Suarez.

Even if they opt out we need to try to sign them.

Martinez versatility is huge and I see Suarez as our 8th inning guy next year or even the Closer.

Suarez/Castillo at the back end is pretty good and inexpensive.

Does Pomeranz sign a 1 year prove it deal?

 

Pomeranz is under contract … so Padres are on the hook for for his salary unless they put him on waivers and someone claims him (unlikely give his contract and injuries).

$10MM cash ($8.5MM AAV).

Not sure why I was thinking Pom was a FA after this year.

Well he needs to get healthy then and pitch the full 23’ season.