Quote from fenn68 on September 17, 2024, 4:35 am

Hope Arraez’ injury is not serious … hurt sliding into home but stayed in the game … got a key hit … but clearly was in pain while running.  In the past two weeks he has been a key in the leadoff slot: 463/491/519 (1.010).

Note that Arraez is now hitting .323 for the season to lead the NL in BA … 2nd is Ozuna now down to .302. Arraez looks to land his 3rd straight batting title.  Only one hitter (Witt in the AL) has a better BA (.332).

Initially I was skeptical about Arraez … no defense, no speed, no SLG … but after watching him in the lead-off slot his ability to work the pitchers and get on base ahead of the likes of Tatis, Profar, and Machado “fits” this line-up.

 

Quote from fenn68 on September 17, 2024, 4:52 am

Interesting interview with Martin Perez (FA after the season). First, he came across as an articulate “good guy” who really fits this team. Apparently he had a number of “friends” already on the roster so the transition to the Padres was easier.

In his 8 games with the Padres … 2.72 ERA / 1.12 WHIP … he said Niebla worked with him to change his pitch mix and that has helped his results this year.

He said he would love to return to the Padres next season but what I thought was amusing was it was suggested he tell Preller and the response (with a smile) was “he knows” … hmm. Not sure the Padres have the money in 2025 to do that but he would seem to be a strong option for the #5 SP given the other options.

Quote from Randy Manese on September 17, 2024, 9:40 am

If given the opportunity, I believe most of our Free Agents would want to return to the Padres and I'm almost 100% certain that Profar will be back.  For the rest, my guess is that Preller will tell them to seek out the best deal they can but give him an opportunity to make a final offer.  In that kind of scenario, we likely will have a lot better than 50-50 chance get back Solano, D Peralta and Higashioka.   2024 salaries for the following FA are: 8M for M Perez;  7M for Kim; 6M for E Diaz and 5.7M for T Scott; the Padres have alternatives/options available for all these four although the quality and consistency of what makes each valuable to this year's team may not be there.

If Padres management does not greatly expand the budget and/or we can't free up some room under the 2025/2026 CBTs via trade, then one of the key decisions is whether we can afford the GG defense, speed and occasional power of Kim in a 3-5 year contract vice the top of the order consistency Arraez brings to the line-up, the money Arraez would command in arbitration this year and what he could demand in in a long term contract next year, ie., his FA year?  Arraez is not very good defensively and while Bogaerts can make the routine play, he's not in the same defensive league as Kim; likewise, while Cronenworth is almost Kim's equal defensively at 2b he's way worse against LHP (and seemingly getting worse against RHP) than Kim is against RHPs.  Since Bogey and Croney aren't going anywhere, what salary/CBT number do you decide upon if the money projects to be the approximately the same for both over the next 5 years?  Who brings the most worth given the overall construct of the team?

Can M Perez get more than 8M as a FA?  Can the Padres even afford to pay him 8M to hold down the #5 spot in the rotation or do they revert back to cheaper alternatives Waldron or Vasquez?  It will be interesting to see what kind of offers Perez gets after finishing strong with San Diego.  As for Tanner Scott, we paid a high prospect price for him to do what he is doing this year but definitely see him pricing himself out of our very tight budget for 2025 because of how well he did.

 

Quote from fenn68 on September 17, 2024, 11:35 am

Well this winter will be interesting on FA signings, arbitration increases, and trades (or lack of trades) in conjunction with whatever payroll limitations the Padres have (something only the Padres know).

Two issues ... 1) cash flow ... 2) CBT.

CBT itself may not me an issue ... they reset the penalties by being under in 2024 ... so the "penalty" on the 2025 overage up to $20MM is comparatively small and by my "guesses" the Padres could be in that zone with the arbitration decisions and re-sign Profar, Higashioka, Solano, and Peralta (last three should be low cost given their ages and being more role players). The others (including Kim) are likely to move on. With Hosmer, Arraez, Cease, King, and probably Suarez FA after 2025 ... should be well under the CBT in 2026 and will have some choice if (who) they try to re-sign ... if none a likely big boost to cash flow.

If, as I think, the Padres try to stay max $10MM over CBT (leaving some room for mid-season tinkering) ... that should eliminate Kim, Scott, Perez, and Diaz ... all will get a "decent" contracts.

Cash flow is a big unknown and likely is the bigger issue. On the plus side, a deep run in the 2024 playoffs will bring in more revenue ... that helps. However, the TV issues remain and we just don't know how the Padres sit vs the league's debt service coverage requirement but the league could "limit" spending if that remains a problem.

Given this season and a playoff run (hopefully a deep run) ... the fan support ... the risk of a 2026 roster without a big part of this team ... a case can be made for a push to continue winning in 2025 and slightly go over the CBT and push the cashflow.

Expect a lot of surprises / twists as the winter evolves.

Quote from ultratvfan on September 17, 2024, 6:42 pm

MARLINS BEAT DODGERS! OH YES!

So much for an easier schedule. Even Lake Bachar shut them down for 4 innings.

Quote from 3fingersplit on September 17, 2024, 8:22 pm

Manny just doing Manny things...again...BOOM

Quote from ultratvfan on September 17, 2024, 9:57 pm

The Padres had a runner on 3rd and nobody out and could not get him in. Sheesh! The Padres remain 3.5 games behind the Dodgers.

 

Quote from Jeremy Hill on September 17, 2024, 10:28 pm

One of the weirdest games I can remember from an umpiring standpoint. It didn't look like that ball hit Profar and he looked like he was telling them it didn't. With how clutch he's been it's hard not to wonder what would have happened if he got to hit. I'm not sure Altuve makes the play on Manny's ball to end it if he hadn't been tossed after another strange call earlier either. Regardless they have to find a way to get that run in. It didn't happen tonight, but I like our chances with those guys coming up most nights. Tough loss on a night that the Dodgers and DBacks lost. Regroup and take the series tomorrow.

Quote from LynchMob on September 18, 2024, 6:08 am

Quote from ultratvfan on September 17, 2024, 9:57 pm

The Padres had a runner on 3rd and nobody out and could not get him in. Sheesh! The Padres remain 3.5 games behind the Dodgers.

 

FTJ's at-bat, in particular, was not good ...