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CF 2020

I guess we should start with Margot as the "proven" incumbent for CF in 2020. He surely has some detractors but he does have some proven pluses:

  1. defense: he ranked #9 (out of 31 CF with > 400 PA) in dWAR ... if you like defense that is good;
  2. hitting v LHP: in 2019 he hit .330 (139 wRC+) ... that is very good

However, v RHP he hit only .200 (61 wRC+) ... that is very bad plus that covers about 75% of the pitchers.

This begs a platoon in CF, but with who?

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Trent Grisham? Clearly Preller sees his upside but what has he proven? Actually he is really hard to evaluate and project.

Drafted in 2015 as one of the best HS hitters with speed / defense but a unique grip on the bat ... started that year in rookie ball with good production.

Brewers did not think that grip would play in the upper levels and had him change ... result 2016-17-18 had decreasing production as he moved from low A to AA and saw him fall from a Top 100 to an also ran on the Brewers' Top 30. Maybe linked ... his defense suffered.

2019 ... Grisham returns to his HS grip and modifies his swing to make earlier contact. Offense explodes ... average and power ... initially in AA (Southern League) which is not a hitter's environment ... then in AAA (PCL) which as we know is impossible to evaluate based on stats.

Then his ML audition: at Miller Park (.279) but AWAY (.200) ... not a good sign going to PETCO; v LHP (.219) ... not a good sign to earn a full time role; v RHP (.234) ... the key to platoon with Margot is not a compelling case.

Which Grisham shows up in ST to earn a 26 man roster role. Maybe still be a quality prospect but really ready to start 2020?

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Franchy Cordero? Can he stay healthy after minimal playing time for 2 years? No reputation of hitting LHP and carries a high K%. Not all that good defensively.

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Taylor Trammell? High ceiling prospect who struggled in AA offensively and probably needs another year in the minors.

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Josh Naylor? just checking if you are paying attention!

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Looking at those options ... very good odds that Margot holds the full-time CF role into 2020 based on his superior defense and ability to hit LHP.

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Betts for CF? Marte for CF? Myers for CF (with Naylor in RF)? ... not likely.

It will depend on how our offense improves in 2020.

If we are scoring enough to win we can live with Margot and even Hedges.

But I would prefer to see Cordero or Grisham get some starts against RH pitchers as long as they are hitting.

Not a true platoon but I really wanna see what Cordero especially can do.

Well our OF problems definitely were not fixed even with the additions of Pham and Grisham.

AJ has brought in a lot of new bodies hoping somebody can break through. If really comes down to who actually hits. Whoever does is going to end up with the job.

Grisham is an unknown. He has only 1 year of experience and is far from a finished product, so he probably has the greatest chance to show us something and grab the position.

Cordero looks like exactly what you want in CF with his premium speed, but he was always a high strikeout guy. He really only showed a few months of true hitting ability and even then he still struck out a lot. He has a little more time in mlb than Grisham but he still has a decent chance of being able to hit at least passably. I just kind of think that a lot of people here are looking at Cordero's past with rose-colored glasses. He not only has to stay healthy, he has to either learn to or prove he can hit on a consistent basis.

Margot is pretty much a finished product at this point. Yeah, occasionally someone will find a way to have a rennaissance later in their career like Yelich, but it is very rare. That being said, his premium defense makes him valuable. The job is his at this point. Cordero and Grisham will both get chances but they are going to have to take the job from him.

This is why IMO a resurrection of Myers or acquiring Mookie/Marte is so important. That one extra bat is what the team needs to get them into the postseason or at least in the thick of it at the ASB where the FO will be hard pressed to make a deal for an ace or near ace. You get that extra bat and then you live with Margot’s bat in Center. Much improved play from the bullpen, catcher, Left Field, Right Field and Second base plus a full season of Tatis and this team is going to be good and fun to watch.

We all are kidding ourselves if we dont think that Grisham is here to be the dominant CFer this season v RHP. Preller did not trade for him to sit on the bench, play part time in RF with Myers, are to start the season in AAA.

Margot will bat v LHP and Grisham will be in there v RHP, pretty much a straight up platoon.

Pham will be everyday LF, and Myers (barring a trade) will be everyday RF. Fenn, you yourself have stated many times, the best way for success with Myers is to play him in the same position, and play him everyday.

If SD thinks they have any chance for a WC spot this 2020 season, then Naylor does not/can not see a single inning in the OF, and your 5th OF is probably some combo of Profar and maybe Cordero after some substantial at bats to start the season in AAA.

Agree that we should expect Pham and Myers in the corner OF slots virtually full time (and I am OK with that).

Grisham playing CF against RHP clearly is the goal ... just cautioning that he may be no better than Margot and lesser defensively based on his very limited ML results (especially away for Miller Park). He should get that early shot to earn that role but if he struggles early ... and if the Padres want to contend ... he may be on the bench (or in AAA) and we get an early taste of Cordero (assuming he is healthy and hitting somewhere). Fallback ... Margot full time.

Basically the CF role is Grisham's to lose ... and he just might.

So with the Margot tree who plays CF against LH starters?

Could it truly be a competition between Cordero and Grisham for the starts against RHP and Myers gets time there against LHP?

 

I am going to say our opening day OF will be Pham/Grisham/Franchy.... Olivares/Myers on the bench for game 1

Quote from MrPadre19 on February 9, 2020, 9:07 am

So with the Margot tree who plays CF against LH starters?

Could it truly be a competition between Cordero and Grisham for the starts against RHP and Myers gets time there against LHP?

 

Since Cordero’s history suggests he is not an option vs. LHP ... shaping up as a battle between Grisham (big unknown in ML or LHP) in CF and Naylor (not great vs. LHP but OK ish) in RF. Myers can hit LHP so will flop to CF or RF ... again unfortunate for him.

Preller is really rolling dice on Grisham and his 2019 minor league season to translate into an immediate 2020 success. Potential may be there for the future ... but opening day 2020?

Idea .... Padres cleared about $2.5MM moving Margot. Should they use that to sign some CF/RHH insurance such as Maybin or Pillar? Not sure much in the way of CF/RHH even as a good insurance policy on the trade market.

Do think someone to ask about is Myles Straw from Houston ... RHH CF, 25, great speed high OBP type but zero power. Buried in the Houston OF. Houston may be interested in a #5 SP and/or RP to solidify their pitching. Padres have the pieces. Note: Straw is that super utility type who can also play SS/2B.

Probably not a start of 2020 options but maybe for late season:

Trammell ... although his BA was poor in AA last season his OBP was still good and, interestingly he hit LHP way better than RHP ... sort of a reverse split scenario. Getting a LHH to hit LHP is usually a challenge ... so if he gets his hitting RHP on track he should be in good shape to make a ML move.

Oliveras ... had a good AA in 2019 with a stronger 2nd half BUT another reverse split guy where he hit RHP better than LHP.

Both probably need at least 1/2 season in AAA to position themselves to replace the initial CF choices.

Oh yea, Gettys could not hit either RHP or LHP in the PCL.