Quote from fenn68 on November 30, 2019, 7:13 pm

Quote from David Nevin on November 30, 2019, 6:33 pm

Keep on eye on who pitches in EP and who is left back in AA.

I don’t think AJ wants the guys he expects big things from to pitch in AAA.

So where do Bolanos pitch next season?

Does Lawson stay in AA?

 

 

Going to be crowded in AMA next season. Have to think Gore, Patino, Morejon, Lawson represent the core then maybe Bolanos with Cantillo making the push up and not sure what to do with Hernandez. Someone is likely getting “forced up” to EP.

Quote from TatisJr on November 30, 2019, 7:17 pm

Agree Mr. P, keeping young talented arms out of AAA seems to be the new trend and I completely understand why. The PCL numbers for hitters are ridiculous. Ballparks and the new ball made it a pitchers nightmare. I went to a couple PCL games this year and it didn’t feel like real baseball. You don’t want young pitchers getting messed up mentally watching pop ups sail over for home runs.

Quote from fenn68 on November 30, 2019, 7:21 pm

One thing about prospects ... they tend to sort themselves out as they progress up the ladder and play ... so with the large near term cluster we envision to start 2020, they will shrink it on their own during 2020. Just a guess who rises and who falls even with professional evaluation and projection.

 

Quote from TatisJr on November 30, 2019, 7:39 pm

Quote from JasonE135 on November 30, 2019, 5:29 pm

I didn't even bother to go into our lower minors. Yes we have talent everywhere. The only reason I left Lawson off my list is because he is not on our 40 man roster and thus not part of our immediate plans. I still like Morejon a lot. A LHP who can hit 98 somewhat regularly always has good value. I can never tell about LHP movement because camera angles are always optimized for RHP. He seems to be very similar to Julio Urias of the Dodgers. His curveball is an out pitch and a plus, along with his fastball. Along with 2 above average changeups that is very good stuff. But none of that really matters. As I said, right now we have 4 guys to build around in Paddack, Lamet, Gore and Patino. Everyone else is expendable for the right price. Quantrill, Morejon, Bolanos and Lawson all have very big promise but not all are essential. All of these guys have the stuff and or pitchability and temperament to be quality #2's if not Aces if everything works out. That gives us a lot of ammunition for trades. I used to really want to keep both Quantrill and Morejon but now I am okay with us trading them, as long as we get worthwhile value for them.

Jason is spot on IMO.  Paddack, Lamet, Gore, Patino are going to be the foundation rotation pieces. Besides that big four, I’m certain AJP will trade away some of his talented young pitching. It’s just tough because I love/really like so many of the young arms we currently have in the system.  Cal gets overlooked by a lot of fans because we are so stacked, but that guy has some lights out stuff, is competitive and smart. It would not surprise me at all if he became an All Star type pitcher. Really hope we can hang onto Cal, but he will be in demand. I’ve thought 2 lefties out Joey, Lauer, Morejon, Weathers, Cantillo get traded this offseason. With Lauer gone I believe one more will be on the move. Weathers and Cantillo will catch the eye of numerous teams around the league. Both are young, have a nice multiple pitch repertoire and seem like guys who just know how to pitch like vets at this early stage in their careers.  Tough call on Reggie and Ronald. Lawson and Bolanos are two guys I’d like to keep around as well , but I could see one being dealt away this offseason. Lawson seems like he could be special if injuries don’t derail him. Bolanos seems like the safer bet due to Lawsons injury history. I’d say Lawson has the higher ceiling, Bolanos has a higher floor.  They both seem like future ML starters to me. This system is going to produce quite a few ML starters. At least a few will be on other squads just gotta hope AJP nails the return.

Quote from fenn68 on December 1, 2019, 4:27 am

Pitching is always in demand and Preller has position himself not only with a lot of talent near term but also a pretty stable transition plan for the ML. Consider the current ML contingent’s control / age.

6 ... Quantrill (24)

5 ... Paddack (23)

4 ... Lamet (27)

4 ... Lucchesi (26)

2 ... Davies (26)

1 ... Richards (31)

That is 5 starters and spot starter ... except for Richards ... young with some upside development still in the tank. With Gore and Patino (young with 6 years control after they arrive) poised to replace Richards and Davies and that depth in prospects ... he is not going to be worried about adding to SP (unless it is a major piece) and should potentially “overpay” with some prospects to get a major upgrade and a position of need.

Given the young depth arriving soon ... and consider a trade for major quality in the OF/2B upgrades requires a seller to buy into the trade pieces offered ... Preller may be “safe” in dealing from the ML deck ... Lucchesi sure ... but I would not exclude Lamet as an option where he offers 4 years control and major upside with ML experience.

Have to give quality (in the buyer’s mind) to get quality and a “contender” probably would like Lamet over prospects.

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 1, 2019, 5:45 am

I see Lamet as a potential #1-#2.

Really don’t seem the advantage of trading him for another.

I may be in the minority but to me that would be like trading Paddack for another Starter.

I think Lamet will be that good in the next couple years.

 

Quote from onlypads on December 1, 2019, 5:57 am

Quote from David Nevin on December 1, 2019, 5:45 am

I see Lamet as a potential #1-#2.

Really don’t seem the advantage of trading him for another.

I may be in the minority but to me that would be like trading Paddack for another Starter.

I think Lamet will be that good in the next couple years.

 

100% agree. Need him and Paddack for the playoffs.  He is still developing too. 1-2 SP and RP dominance is needed at minimum and prob 1-2-3 given our lack of offense is more realistic.

 

I never really understood this SP "priority." I see OF near ML top prospects / proven as our top priority by far. Given our payroll restrictions, SP is my lowest priority (I know that is not a popular opinion). Dollar for dollar I am not sure it benefits us like the OF upgrades.

 

Quote from onlypads on December 1, 2019, 6:18 am

If Richards returns to form I would think about extending him on a short deal. I think he is cheaper and somewhat of a Wheeler comp and I think we can extend him for less money and years.  I am not sure Wheeler has additive playoff experience or clubhouse intangibles. They both throw hard, have high spin, and contended with past injuries. However, the Padres always talk about Richards as a positive clubhouse voice. Then you can use Luc + Q (really like Q though) + Morejon / Lawson / Bolanos (pref. only one) as trade chips. Those are legitimate chips with upside and control.

2020 / 2021: Paddack, Lamet, Richards (if extended), Davies, Gore, and Patino.

Then phase out R and D, and bring up the next wave. Hopefully, at that time 3/4 of the SPs will be dominant.

Quote from fenn68 on December 1, 2019, 6:32 am

My thought was potentially trading Lamet for that impact OF bat (not just another SP) and go with the upside of Gore - Patino - etc. with Paddack for the future.

He has a better chance to get that impact OF than a collection of lesser prospects and he would be dealt from Padre “surplus”.

The key he is very good with upside and in the ML but it is still “potential”. If an legit ML impact OF is the target ... have to give someone that hurts.

Having said that, it would take a real impact bat ... and frankly not many on the trade market other than in speculation. Lamet for Conforto? Lamet for Marte? Lamet for Benintendi? Lamet for Merrifield? ... if that is the bottom line demand from the selling team and they have zero interested in Lucchesi or “prospects”?