Quote from fenn68 on February 5, 2021, 5:49 pm

Ozuna resigns with ATL (4 year deal) ... NYM getting hit with this while losing out on Bauer might kick them in on some of the remaining FA ... they have the money.

Quote from MrPadre19 on February 5, 2021, 6:57 pm

There is zero doubt that the Dodgers signing Bauer has to do with the Padres additions.

So does this get Preller to up the ante and sign a Rosenthal?

We’ll see.

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on February 5, 2021, 10:25 pm

Quote from fenn68 on February 5, 2021, 3:10 pm

Bauer should put them way over the Luxury tax in 2021 .... and maybe a need for a 3B (Turner?) and probably some RP help. Maybe the have a "payroll shedding" trade coming?

2022 may not be a problem ... but will have a lot of decisions for LAD. FA potentials are Kershaw, Janson, Kelly, Taylor, Seager, Knebel ... that is a down $89MM so even if Bauer stays at $45MM some wiggle room to stay under the cap (if in the new CBA the cap remains at its current level).

Has to be more for LAD before the season and a lot of post-season moves.

Roster Resource (FanGraphs) has them at almost 240 MM; 30 MM over luxury tax threshold, 10 MM over 2nd threshold @ 230 MM & 10 MM from highest threshold @ 250 MM.  Were under last 2 years, but I don't know all the details of that.  Seems like if you blow through it like this you might as well keep going...

Quote from fenn68 on February 6, 2021, 4:47 am

In 2021 it is “only money” (extra levels of fines as they cross each level), think a 40% hit over $250MM .. so not comparatively large in dollars if they just cross a bit. Think if they cross $250MM their #1 pick in the draft drops ten slots. At this point probably worth it for them.

Real problems come if they are over for three consecutive years .... and not looking as thought that will be an issue for the LAD. Then the new CBA will change the levels (and/or the rules). So very likely a “one and done” event.

Quote from MrPadre19 on February 6, 2021, 6:54 am

So what do the Dodgers do now about 3b?

Do they sign Turner or....do they now take their surplus of young Starters and make a trade?

Im hoping for Turner cause the thoughts of a trade including 2 of Gonsolin/Jurias/May for a guy like Chapman would be bad for the Padres.

I’m thinking Turners about to hit a wall.....and  Chapman is just too good.

Quote from fenn68 on February 6, 2021, 6:55 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on February 5, 2021, 6:57 pm

There is zero doubt that the Dodgers signing Bauer has to do with the Padres additions.

So does this get Preller to up the ante and sign a Rosenthal?

We’ll see.

 

I would also think because the Mets were the other finalists pushed their motivation ... adding Bauer to the Mets (with DeGrom, Stroman, et al) would have made them also a formidable opponent in the playoffs with a deep SP. Getting through both a stronger Padres and a stronger Mets with Bauer would have been a real challenge.

NL is shaping up to be somewhat an elite group of leaders and a the remaining teams around for the ride.

ATL - NYM .... STL .... LAD - SD are looking already as the five playoff teams. Never know with surprises / injuries but that likely is the current betting line.

If that is playing out by mid-season, wonder how that impacts the line-ups in an effort to keep the players “fresh” for the playoffs considering 2020 was only 60 games.

Quote from fenn68 on February 6, 2021, 7:09 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on February 6, 2021, 6:54 am

So what do the Dodgers do now about 3b?

Do they sign Turner or....do they now take their surplus of young Starters and make a trade?

Im hoping for Turner cause the thoughts of a trade including 2 of Gonsolin/Jurias/May for a guy like Chapman would be bad for the Padres.

I’m thinking Turners about to hit a wall.....and  Chapman is just too good.

Has to be some point where Turner ... after all he has done for the LAD ... gets frustrated with the team playing “hard ball” with him and just bolts. Given ST in a week ... that should be soon since other teams seem sincerely in the mix.

For now 3B is Rios (a quality prospect) and Lux (an elite prospect) is on the bench. Lux could emerge at 3B or 2B (moving Taylor to 3B) or SS (moving Seager to 3B) ... so maybe the LAD are not that motivated to get a major 3B add. The current squad should be good enough to dominate in the NL and make the playoffs. Can easily wait until the trade deadline if needed.

With Bauer’s opt outs ... Kershaw aging, Price only around through 2022 (at best) ... LAD may not want to move any elite pitching prospects ... also in 2021 the LAD will have the same issue as all teams, getting enough innings out of their starting five given the limited 2020 workloads.

Quote from MrPadre19 on February 6, 2021, 9:00 am

This is turning into a competition between ATL/NYM and SD/LAD

Braves get better the Mets make moves.....Padres get better Dodgers make moves.

I still see these teams not yet done.

NYM I think will sign JBJ....the Dodgers possibly could add at 3B.....Padres still could add to the bullpen.

But running out of free agents and days before ST.

All I know for sure is this is going to be a fun and competitive season in at least two of the NL Divisions.

I’m hoping as competitive as the NL East is top to bottom they will keep their second best teams wins number down to help us make the WC if we don’t take the Division.

 

Quote from fenn68 on February 6, 2021, 9:36 am

Met have a couple of routes to take. First, maybe a push to sign Odorizzi considering they are current sitting with Lucchesi at #5. Odorizzi is legit #3 or above so should create more wins than Lucchesi in the quest to finish ahead of ATL. Odorizzi will be a lot cheaper than their offer to Bauer. Then maybe sign Pillar as a RHH OF.

The issues with Bradley is ... he is a LHH trying to fit into a very LHH team with Conforto, Nimmo, Smith in the OF and McNeil at 2B. Without a DH and with Alonso at 1B ... not a lot of wiggle room with the others ... plus he apparently is holding for a very long deal with big money (Boras is his agent).

Mets may try to use one of those LHH OF to get a SP ... if so, maybe then room for Bradley. The need a CF who can field ... was not their strength in 2020.