Quote from fenn68 on October 29, 2020, 2:55 pm

With no NL DH and likely a high number of “hitters” on the FA market ... doubt Moreland has any trade value at $3MM or would he get claimed by another team. They have cheaper alternatives (or can just wait for the Padres to release him).

Hand is going to be the real test of the market’s mood. Normally, $10MM for Hand on a 1 year deal would appeal to a lot of teams ... IF no one claims him, then everyone else better get prepared for some very low offers (if any).

Guessing the issue with Rosenthal is being skeptical about his sustained rebound from injury. That might keep is cost down a little but he still presents an appealing package to a contender in need for RP (see PHIL, NYM, etc.). Yates should be in a tougher situation recovering from surgery and “older” with less of a national reputation. As for Richards, looking at this stats in 2020 ... now just a journeyman arm and a questionable SP (maybe better as a future RP) ... looks like a candidate for a low base and incentives.

Quote from Randy Manese on October 29, 2020, 4:48 pm

This shortened season allowed a lot of RP to make their debut - some were exceptional and some were horrible.  Likewise, we had many proven RP crash and burn by poor performance or by injury.  RP's in general are so volatile that I believe the trend is now going for quantity vice quality, i.e., get as many low cost options as you can and hope that a few pan out.  There will be a few that those contracts we've seen in the last few years, but I don't think that number will be very high nor will the top salaries.   I'm guessing someone like Liam Hendricks might be the top RP and possibly get more than a 2 year deal for more than 20M.  Other than that, I think clubs will be competitive for RP but conservative in their offers.  Just because the Padres made a very bad deal in re-signing Stammen for 8 million over two years doesn't mean that this is the floor for many RPs.  I think most will get 1 to 2 year deals and be in the 1.5 - 3.5 M range - there are too many variables and too many perceptions that have to line up for a high payoff for a RP.  Plus guys like Hader might be on the market and he only made 4.1 M last year.  Maybe it will turn out that my guess on Rosenthal is way low, but it may be the what the Padres can afford at this point in time.  Hope we can sign him!

Quote from fenn68 on October 29, 2020, 8:50 pm

Agree that quantity accumulation will be in vogue ... but (maybe at a reduced price) teams will not shy away from paying for established quality. The mid-range guys probably will be the ones struggling to get decent deals. The “better” options may not be getting those 3 year / $36MM type deals any more but still should get decent money on shorter term deals.

Do think the non-contending teams will go the TB route and just wing it with volume but still some contenders ... especially ones that failed in 2020 because of their bullpens ... will not risk it and pay up for some quality with less gamble. Hard to imagine PHIL with the worst pen in MLB not going quality ... maybe the same for WASH, LAA, NYM, and even the LAD. Maybe they keep the deals under $10MM ... but not by more than a couple of million (I am talking closer type here). Still only a few teams will really pay up ... so likely some decent quality could be had more cheaply.

Quote from fenn68 on October 30, 2020, 6:26 am

I guess the following proves we can’t have standard philosophy on how teams will act.

CWS hire 76 year old Tony LaRussa (after firing the “old” Rick Renteria ... 58) despite the “trend” of teams going with young, inexperienced managers who are more attuned today’s younger players and analytics. Of course most did not take into account the “buddy system” where owner Riensdorf is great friends with LaRussa.

Detroit is about to hire AJ Hinch ... obviously not caring about his Houston fiasco ... only one year later. Plus, Detroit put fans and candidates through a self-serving charade of interviews when (as had been reported) Hinch was always the #1 choice of Detroit ownership and they were just waiting for his suspension to end.

Too easy to focus on these two specifically but aren’t there a large number of highly qualified alternatives who have “earned” the right to get their shot at managing rather than the recycling approach?

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on October 30, 2020, 7:37 am

Quote from Randy Manese on October 29, 2020, 4:48 pm

This shortened season allowed a lot of RP to make their debut - some were exceptional and some were horrible.  Likewise, we had many proven RP crash and burn by poor performance or by injury.  RP's in general are so volatile that I believe the trend is now going for quantity vice quality, i.e., get as many low cost options as you can and hope that a few pan out.  There will be a few that those contracts we've seen in the last few years, but I don't think that number will be very high nor will the top salaries.   I'm guessing someone like Liam Hendricks might be the top RP and possibly get more than a 2 year deal for more than 20M.  Other than that, I think clubs will be competitive for RP but conservative in their offers.  Just because the Padres made a very bad deal in re-signing Stammen for 8 million over two years doesn't mean that this is the floor for many RPs.  I think most will get 1 to 2 year deals and be in the 1.5 - 3.5 M range - there are too many variables and too many perceptions that have to line up for a high payoff for a RP.  Plus guys like Hader might be on the market and he only made 4.1 M last year.  Maybe it will turn out that my guess on Rosenthal is way low, but it may be the what the Padres can afford at this point in time.  Hope we can sign him!

Most recent years RP's of any quality have been in the highest demand in FA, since all teams are in on them.  Elite SP's & position players much higher $, but only a few teams "in" on them typically.  The RP's almost all teams can afford.  It seemed to me the guys getting hurt the most in FA recently were non-premium defensive positions:  1B, 2B, corner OF.  Typically guys >30 losing ground defensively or maybe not that great in the first place, but coming in low based on past offensive production.

Stammen's deal pre-covid really wasn't a bad deal given what he had done the prior years.  I still argue that: A) Stammen has more value in a normal season by simply soaking up a lot of IP; he stays healthy & is always up among leaders in appearances,  B) Value of vet leadership underappreciated with Yates down most of the year, C)  His contract is tradeable IF you attach an asset.  That's the cost of doing business in post-covid (& performance) world.  Might be giving up that asset + Stammen to re-allocate that $$ from the middle to the back of the bullpen.

But guys like Hand & Rosenthal while they may not get 10 MM AAV in 2021 specifcially, aren't going to be "on sale" for 50% of that.

Quote from fenn68 on October 30, 2020, 3:59 pm

Well it looks like a belt tightening winter for teams .... Brad Hand did clear waivers. No team wanted one of the best RP in 2020 at a commitment of only 1 year at $10MM. That would have been a bargain 12 months ago.

 

Quote from Ben Davey on October 30, 2020, 4:46 pm

Quote from fenn68 on October 30, 2020, 3:59 pm

Well it looks like a belt tightening winter for teams .... Brad Hand did clear waivers. No team wanted one of the best RP in 2020 at a commitment of only 1 year at $10MM. That would have been a bargain 12 months ago.

 

Came on here to say the exact same thing Fenn.  If one of the top relievers last year cant get claimed for 1/10 that is REALLY bad for the market.

Especially given a team like Philly or Cinci that would be in the playoffs if they had maybe one good reliever.

BTW The argument against Rosenthal making much $ is pretty easy to make.  He is 30 (31 next May) and his last 3 years have gone...
2018: DNP (injured)
2019: 15.1 IP, 26 BB, 17 K 13.50 ERA
2020: 23.2 IP, 8 BB,38 K, 1.90 ERA

So 39 IP in the last 3 years.  Its foolish in any market to give 10+ mil to someone like that, let alone a COVID one.

Quote from Randy Manese on October 30, 2020, 4:58 pm

Whether these huge losses by baseball owners are real or not, they (as a group) are going to have to make everyone believe that the 2020 season had such adverse impact that players like Hand will only get 50-75% of what picking up his option would have cost.  This sets them up for the 2021 CBA negotiations and low-balling FA's is but one strategy that most, except for the big city teams with lots of money behind them, will probably utilize.  Realmuto, Springer and Bauer will certainly get close to the money they want, but the majority of FA's, including dozens that will be non-tendered, will be competing for jobs that teams will be looking to hand to their upcoming prospects.  If you are not one of those teams who has a decent chance for the playoffs/World Series, then why would you lay out big contracts after this season of lost revenue?   I think this bodes well for our desire to re-sign Rosenthal and maybe even Profar.  With the NL DH probably a no-go, don't see us picking up the option on Moreland but rather looking for a RH bat that can platoon with Hosmer at 1b (he hit .204 against LH pitching!).  May already have him in Nola but need at least another reliable RH hitter off the bench, whether it is OF, 1b or C.

Quote from MrPadre19 on October 31, 2020, 6:28 am

I'm guessing Players(well their Agents) are going to be hesitant to sign any long term deals right now.

Why would they in a depressed market?

We should se an inordinate amount of one year deals this offseason....other than maybe the top few elite FA's and a few older FA's.

That could work out well for us considering this team is very close and really only has a few short term needs anyway.