Quote from fenn68 on October 28, 2020, 8:40 am

Watching the Rays (who I have not seen all that much) during the playoffs has changed my “like” of the little guy who could challenge the big guys to my “dislike” of a team philosophy that is boring to me. (Robert’s approach to pitching changes is in the same category).

The Ray’s are stubbornly locked into the “stat analysis” game. Apparently the leading the league in striking out (not concerned) and focus on the HR ... the extreme in not caring about the immediate value of a run producing single. The approach to pitching apparently can’t be altered for immediate short run situations. Think Smoltz suggested that although those stats may bear fruit over a 162 game schedule ... the dynamics are different in a short series when the arms are being used more frequently ... and less sharp.

Clearly the Snell removal is an issue. Yes, his history shows he does not go 6 innings ... yes stats say avoid the 3rd time through the line-up but he was “on”, had not thrown a lot of pitches, the batter was to be Betts who he K’d twice and has not been hitting LHP ... and bring in RHP Anderson (Betts is killing RHP) who has been being worked almost every game (and getting hit). Cash follows one set of long term stats for his call ... ignores the short term realities.

Many bring up the problems with “small sample size” when judging a player for long term production. Think Cash is stuck in the reverse mode by using statistical information developed over the “big sample size” to judge a short term situation.

Part of the commentary on Cash was the team “loves him” because he can relate ... not so sure that is true for Snell, Glasnow, or Morton.

Quote from Brian Connelly on October 28, 2020, 1:34 pm

Easy to armchair QB Cash there, but I do know what Bochy would have done... "ride the horse that brung you".

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on October 28, 2020, 2:51 pm

I think the issue was more the bringing in of an ineffective arm more so than removing the effective one.

If he leaves Snell in and they score a few runs “everyone” would say that he should have removed him because he has not gone more than 6 runs in two years.

Hindsight always wins.

But Anderson had given up runs in like 6 straight outings?
It was 1-0 in an elimination game!

”That” was the mistake.....

Quote from fenn68 on October 28, 2020, 3:38 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on October 28, 2020, 2:51 pm

I think the issue was more the bringing in of an ineffective arm more so than removing the effective one.

If he leaves Snell in and they score a few runs “everyone” would say that he should have removed him because he has not gone more than 6 runs in two years.

Hindsight always wins.

But Anderson had given up runs in like 6 straight outings?
It was 1-0 in an elimination game!

”That” was the mistake.....

Absolutely agree ... need both sides of the analytics to make a move work .... maybe removing Snell would be acceptable if they had someone who was on his game NOW ... not someone who was on his game during the regular season and struggling in the post-season. Not as though seeing Snell a third time in that game would be that much more insight since they just saw him a couple of days ago ... and, alternatively, they had seen Anderson a lot ... so in a sense he too was being seen "the third time around" in this series.

If the "stats" are the drivers ... Betts had been really struggling vs. LHP for the season but was killing RHP ... why was that not considered (plus Snell had K'd him twice in the game).

So, to sum, the long history "stats" suggested they should take out Snell even when pitching an outstanding game and that outweighed the Betts lack of effectiveness stats vs LHP (but killing RHP) and the recent (vs. the LAD, playoff) stats that show Anderson's ineffectiveness. Need to make an actual real time judgement consider what is relevant to the moment ...

Quote from 3fingersplit on October 28, 2020, 4:59 pm

I hate the fact that stats have replaced the eye test and gut feeling.....Brian is right....."Dance with the gal that brung ya"

Quote from fenn68 on October 29, 2020, 10:50 am

Cleveland puts Brad Hand on waivers ... the logic was to potentially save an additional $1MM due for the buyout when they decline his $10MM club option. If a team claims him the new team takes the contract. If Hand clears waivers, Cleveland is no worse off and pays the buyout.

Money is really “tight” in Cleveland and although we as fans tend to not get all that wrapped up in a $1MM buyout .... apparently this winter has the clubs (likely many more than just Cleveland) being much more economical. Good strategic thinking by Cleveland.

Also, noted that Seattle declined the option on Graveman then immediately re-signed him to a lower base with incentives. Also makes some sense money-wise.

Options are being declined pretty consistently ... think Miami did pick up Marte’s but not sure on any others.

Quote from Randy Manese on October 29, 2020, 12:25 pm

In a The Athletic Article, only Jurickson Profar is listed among the top 40 Free Agents by Keith Law.  In reading what he has to say about the RP who are on the list, it appears a 2 year contract might be the wave after the shortened season, especially with so many other RP coming on the market (Hand, Osuna, etc.).  I'm getting more hopeful we can re-sign Rosenthal to a fair but reasonable contract (maybe 2 years with a club option for a 3rd) at maybe 3 million in the first and 5 in the second.  Likewise, a one year deal with Yates is probably there if both sides want it.  This may cause some shuffling/dealing with other RP - Johnson, Pagan, Stammen, Strahm - but there are a lot of candidates for the middle innings and few for the high leverage situations.  The decision has to be made as to whether Rosenthal and/or Yates would be more effective than our own non-FA's.  I look for many RPs to have new homes throughout the MLB, including several in San Diego.

 

Quote from LynchMob on October 29, 2020, 12:40 pm

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-defense-of-kevin-cash-pulling-blake-snell-in-the-world-series/

My fav comment (of many good ones) from that article ...

Maybe you didn’t watch much of this series, but in the second game manager Kevin Cash did keep Blake Snell in after 4 2/3 no hit ball with two walks and 9 strikeouts. The next four batters reached base, two of them scoring, and who knows how many others would have crossed home if Nick Anderson didn’t come in and immediately strike out Justin Turner. If you want a manager to learn from the earlier mistake you cannot criticize him for making the opposite action.

Quote from fenn68 on October 29, 2020, 12:43 pm

Quote from Randy Manese on October 29, 2020, 12:25 pm

In a The Athletic Article, only Jurickson Profar is listed among the top 40 Free Agents by Keith Law.  In reading what he has to say about the RP who are on the list, it appears a 2 year contract might be the wave after the shortened season, especially with so many other RP coming on the market (Hand, Osuna, etc.).  I'm getting more hopeful we can re-sign Rosenthal to a fair but reasonable contract (maybe 2 years with a club option for a 3rd) at maybe 3 million in the first and 5 in the second.  Likewise, a one year deal with Yates is probably there if both sides want it.  This may cause some shuffling/dealing with other RP - Johnson, Pagan, Stammen, Strahm - but there are a lot of candidates for the middle innings and few for the high leverage situations.  The decision has to be made as to whether Rosenthal and/or Yates would be more effective than our own non-FA's.  I look for many RPs to have new homes throughout the MLB, including several in San Diego.

 

Think you are under estimating Rosenthal’s earning power even under this winter’s conditions. A lot of teams are seeking upper end RP (maybe even more than SP). We should get a better idea if Hand (at $10MM/1 year) gets claimed or clears waivers. If he clears ... likely the FA RP will become lower cost. If he is claimed, at least one team is seeing $10MM worth it.

Yates is the one I have no idea about his market.

One consideration (probably by the player / agent) is the uncertainty of a 2022 full season with a work stoppage very likely. If worried about that (more than the impact of a reduced 2021 due to COVID) ... not sure they would want to take their bigger paycheck in 2022. Additionally with a new CBA ... will 2023 be better (or worse) for FA?

I think there will be a lot of incentive on both teams and players to do one year deals and punt on gambling on the uncertainties of the future (unless the player is a legit long team “star”).