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Around the League...non Padres
Quote from fenn68 on January 14, 2020, 6:40 amMy gut feeling is the penalty is light but the league has to balance the specifics of what they can prove (have specific evidence) while making sure the penalty targets the correct violators without having the effect of hurting the individuals who were not involved.
My guess is a bigger fine (if they could do it under their by-laws) might only result in some uninvolved scouts, ticket takers, etc. get let go (or no pay increases) as the Astros "cover" the loss. Plus Crane (owner) is not identified as culpable.
Ludhow and Hinch's 1 year suspensions focus on specific perpetrators and, in my mind, should have been harsher for allowing that cheating culture thrive. At least Crane took the next step and fired them. I will be interesting to see who else in the Houston organization is walking papers for being part of the scandal.
Do think the league will go heavier on Cora ... the clear creator and implementer ... once the Boston investigation concludes. Given the report, not sure Boston can really wait and maybe will fire Cora sooner than later (although has to dance around contract terms, I guess).
MLB said in the beginning they would not be targeting specific players ... hard to prove any specific player "willing" participated plus the players' union is a formidable opponent. Slam dunk proof is needed and going down that route would drag this on for a long time. Go for the "head" and he body will die.
The "one off" issue is Carlos Beltran ... a player with Houston so not a target ... but now the manager of the METS. He was clearly identified as the ringleader among the players ... not a follower. How do the METS deal with this?
For me target the specific individuals harshly ... but try hard to avoid hurting the by-standers.
My gut feeling is the penalty is light but the league has to balance the specifics of what they can prove (have specific evidence) while making sure the penalty targets the correct violators without having the effect of hurting the individuals who were not involved.
My guess is a bigger fine (if they could do it under their by-laws) might only result in some uninvolved scouts, ticket takers, etc. get let go (or no pay increases) as the Astros "cover" the loss. Plus Crane (owner) is not identified as culpable.
Ludhow and Hinch's 1 year suspensions focus on specific perpetrators and, in my mind, should have been harsher for allowing that cheating culture thrive. At least Crane took the next step and fired them. I will be interesting to see who else in the Houston organization is walking papers for being part of the scandal.
Do think the league will go heavier on Cora ... the clear creator and implementer ... once the Boston investigation concludes. Given the report, not sure Boston can really wait and maybe will fire Cora sooner than later (although has to dance around contract terms, I guess).
MLB said in the beginning they would not be targeting specific players ... hard to prove any specific player "willing" participated plus the players' union is a formidable opponent. Slam dunk proof is needed and going down that route would drag this on for a long time. Go for the "head" and he body will die.
The "one off" issue is Carlos Beltran ... a player with Houston so not a target ... but now the manager of the METS. He was clearly identified as the ringleader among the players ... not a follower. How do the METS deal with this?
For me target the specific individuals harshly ... but try hard to avoid hurting the by-standers.
Quote from Brian Connelly on January 14, 2020, 7:12 amThe "one off" issue is Carlos Beltran ... a player with Houston so not a target ... but now the manager of the METS. He was clearly identified as the ringleader among the players ... not a follower. How do the METS deal with this?
There is a major hypocrisy issue all over the place here...
Why did owner wait until the outcome to take action against Luhnow & Hinch? B.S. Same can now be said of Boston & Mets.
Why, of all the candidates available, are cheating instigators Cora & Beltran viewed as Paragons of the game and handed MLB managerial positions in major markets with little experience compared to 100's or 1000's of others grinding away Managing in the minors. Well, they did lead the way with the scheme, so maybe it's their "leadership" qualities. B.S.
Hinch's failure to stand up to the players already made clear in the report. B.S.
But how about the players who "would have stopped if Hinch had something..." B.S!
These are supposed to be a bunch of alpha dogs, but in reality MLB's "stays in the locker room/dugout" 'honor' code is similar to mafia/gang mentality of going along like a sheep.
The "one off" issue is Carlos Beltran ... a player with Houston so not a target ... but now the manager of the METS. He was clearly identified as the ringleader among the players ... not a follower. How do the METS deal with this?
There is a major hypocrisy issue all over the place here...
Why did owner wait until the outcome to take action against Luhnow & Hinch? B.S. Same can now be said of Boston & Mets.
Why, of all the candidates available, are cheating instigators Cora & Beltran viewed as Paragons of the game and handed MLB managerial positions in major markets with little experience compared to 100's or 1000's of others grinding away Managing in the minors. Well, they did lead the way with the scheme, so maybe it's their "leadership" qualities. B.S.
Hinch's failure to stand up to the players already made clear in the report. B.S.
But how about the players who "would have stopped if Hinch had something..." B.S!
These are supposed to be a bunch of alpha dogs, but in reality MLB's "stays in the locker room/dugout" 'honor' code is similar to mafia/gang mentality of going along like a sheep.
Quote from 3fingersplit on January 14, 2020, 8:10 amI hope that Manfred channels Kenesaw Mountain Landis and blows Hinch, Luhnow and Cora out of Baseball
After the 1919 Black Sox Gambling Scandal
On January 30, 1921, Landis, speaking at an Illinois church, warned:"Now that I am in baseball, just watch the game I play. If I catch any crook in baseball, the rest of his life is going to be a pretty hot one. I’ll go to any means and to anything possible to see that he gets a real penalty for his offense."
If it turns out that any type of gambling was involved with either the Astros or Red Sox this will be the 1919 Black Sox scandal all over again….I hope it’s not but if it is……Cora should be gone forever
Stealing signs and Tells is baseball.....my guys were great at it from the dugout and on the bases but we never used cameras.
Also had both base coaches give signs to a batter but every inning the "Hot" coach changed and pitch signs the same way from both ends of the dugout. The best was catching guys trying to steal a base or blowing up a squeeze.....that was fun because we had to figure out the other team and make sure they could not pick us without using video or some algorithm.
I hope that Manfred channels Kenesaw Mountain Landis and blows Hinch, Luhnow and Cora out of Baseball
After the 1919 Black Sox Gambling Scandal
On January 30, 1921, Landis, speaking at an Illinois church, warned:
"Now that I am in baseball, just watch the game I play. If I catch any crook in baseball, the rest of his life is going to be a pretty hot one. I’ll go to any means and to anything possible to see that he gets a real penalty for his offense."
If it turns out that any type of gambling was involved with either the Astros or Red Sox this will be the 1919 Black Sox scandal all over again….I hope it’s not but if it is……Cora should be gone forever
Stealing signs and Tells is baseball.....my guys were great at it from the dugout and on the bases but we never used cameras.
Also had both base coaches give signs to a batter but every inning the "Hot" coach changed and pitch signs the same way from both ends of the dugout. The best was catching guys trying to steal a base or blowing up a squeeze.....that was fun because we had to figure out the other team and make sure they could not pick us without using video or some algorithm.
Quote from fenn68 on January 14, 2020, 8:23 amQuote from Brian Connelly on January 14, 2020, 7:12 amThe "one off" issue is Carlos Beltran ... a player with Houston so not a target ... but now the manager of the METS. He was clearly identified as the ringleader among the players ... not a follower. How do the METS deal with this?
There is a major hypocrisy issue all over the place here...
Why did owner wait until the outcome to take action against Luhnow & Hinch? B.S. Same can now be said of Boston & Mets.
Why, of all the candidates available, are cheating instigators Cora & Beltran viewed as Paragons of the game and handed MLB managerial positions in major markets with little experience compared to 100's or 1000's of others grinding away Managing in the minors. Well, they did lead the way with the scheme, so maybe it's their "leadership" qualities. B.S.
Hinch's failure to stand up to the players already made clear in the report. B.S.
But how about the players who "would have stopped if Hinch had something..." B.S!
These are supposed to be a bunch of alpha dogs, but in reality MLB's "stays in the locker room/dugout" 'honor' code is similar to mafia/gang mentality of going along like a sheep.
Agree that hypocrisy abounds. Although on Crane and the waiting on dismissing Ludhow and Hinch may have to do with working with MLB to ensure the report (complete with full documentation) is issued and creates the maximum impact. If Crane moved first that may have diffused the impact of the report and probably caused some legal / contract issues with Ludhow / Hinch. Maybe that same "arrangement" is in place with Boston where they want to address all the perpetrators ... and now more incentive to have individuals "flip" on others ... and an immediate firing of Cora may lessen that pressure.
Beltran is just hard to address since he was a key in the cheating scheme but (based on one report) he eventually fully cooperated with MLB. Plus Manfred did exempt players from penalty (partly to get them to "flip" on management .. sort of like the FBI in big time criminal cases). However, how can the METS justify hiring (and keeping) a manager with that level of involvement in a cheating scandal ... appears to be a major character flaw that will be the target of the NY media right out of the blocks? Guessing we get that tried and true "he is a good man of high character that made a mistake ... which he has learned from"
Quote from Brian Connelly on January 14, 2020, 7:12 amThe "one off" issue is Carlos Beltran ... a player with Houston so not a target ... but now the manager of the METS. He was clearly identified as the ringleader among the players ... not a follower. How do the METS deal with this?
There is a major hypocrisy issue all over the place here...
Why did owner wait until the outcome to take action against Luhnow & Hinch? B.S. Same can now be said of Boston & Mets.
Why, of all the candidates available, are cheating instigators Cora & Beltran viewed as Paragons of the game and handed MLB managerial positions in major markets with little experience compared to 100's or 1000's of others grinding away Managing in the minors. Well, they did lead the way with the scheme, so maybe it's their "leadership" qualities. B.S.
Hinch's failure to stand up to the players already made clear in the report. B.S.
But how about the players who "would have stopped if Hinch had something..." B.S!
These are supposed to be a bunch of alpha dogs, but in reality MLB's "stays in the locker room/dugout" 'honor' code is similar to mafia/gang mentality of going along like a sheep.
Agree that hypocrisy abounds. Although on Crane and the waiting on dismissing Ludhow and Hinch may have to do with working with MLB to ensure the report (complete with full documentation) is issued and creates the maximum impact. If Crane moved first that may have diffused the impact of the report and probably caused some legal / contract issues with Ludhow / Hinch. Maybe that same "arrangement" is in place with Boston where they want to address all the perpetrators ... and now more incentive to have individuals "flip" on others ... and an immediate firing of Cora may lessen that pressure.
Beltran is just hard to address since he was a key in the cheating scheme but (based on one report) he eventually fully cooperated with MLB. Plus Manfred did exempt players from penalty (partly to get them to "flip" on management .. sort of like the FBI in big time criminal cases). However, how can the METS justify hiring (and keeping) a manager with that level of involvement in a cheating scandal ... appears to be a major character flaw that will be the target of the NY media right out of the blocks? Guessing we get that tried and true "he is a good man of high character that made a mistake ... which he has learned from"
Quote from fenn68 on January 14, 2020, 8:33 amShould be interesting to see how Houston replaces both Ludhow and Hinch. Personally would NOT hire from within ... and apparently there are no real GM candidates internally the way Ludhow ran the front office. As for manager ... aren't all the ML coaches tainted?
Did hear one suggestion I like ... sort of a way to build some credibility. Houston works with MLB to hire an "interim" GM out of the MLB offices (like the LaRussa, Alderson, or the like) ... basically an old school no non-sense guy to reset the mind of the front office in Houston (and may to continue the elimination of the bad eggs brought in by Ludhow).
Then at the same time hire an "interim" old school manager that can stand up to the likes of Verlander, Bregman, et. al. on the field while having a solid working philosophy with the new GM.
Should be interesting to see how Houston replaces both Ludhow and Hinch. Personally would NOT hire from within ... and apparently there are no real GM candidates internally the way Ludhow ran the front office. As for manager ... aren't all the ML coaches tainted?
Did hear one suggestion I like ... sort of a way to build some credibility. Houston works with MLB to hire an "interim" GM out of the MLB offices (like the LaRussa, Alderson, or the like) ... basically an old school no non-sense guy to reset the mind of the front office in Houston (and may to continue the elimination of the bad eggs brought in by Ludhow).
Then at the same time hire an "interim" old school manager that can stand up to the likes of Verlander, Bregman, et. al. on the field while having a solid working philosophy with the new GM.
Quote from Brian Connelly on January 14, 2020, 9:02 amInteresting to see good arguments for "strong" & "weak" response made.
Capt, the cynic in me & even U-T kind of agrees with you, that teams might still cheat b/c the payoff is worth the reward.... assuming you can wind up on top.
But I think the "residual fallout" might penalize Houston even worse.... biggest thing is it simply taints or astericks their success; really in the long run kind of ruins the whole great SI cover story predicting WS champs, etc. But the sum of the penalty also means if I'm a FA I would now avoid Houston like the plague; nothing but negative PR, Osuna, "players are still cheaters", etc bad enough; but the big picture is they just lost best SP in baseball, have a great offense, but top 2 SP's are 37 & 36 y.o. Farm system is LITERALLY Forrest Whitley + nothing: ONE "50" grade guy their #2, their #3 is a 45 grade, #16+ are all 40 grades (Pads: 8 "50"+ guys, "45" grades to #30 & likely beyond.) Things could fall apart pretty quickly here.... they can sell off assets to rebuild if the wheels come off, but will get further hindered by the loss of draft picks... hope they become the deserved pariahs of the league.
I can't believe teams will actually hire Luhnow &/or Hinch, Cora, Beltran going forward just from a PR aspect.... we'll see.
Interesting to see good arguments for "strong" & "weak" response made.
Capt, the cynic in me & even U-T kind of agrees with you, that teams might still cheat b/c the payoff is worth the reward.... assuming you can wind up on top.
But I think the "residual fallout" might penalize Houston even worse.... biggest thing is it simply taints or astericks their success; really in the long run kind of ruins the whole great SI cover story predicting WS champs, etc. But the sum of the penalty also means if I'm a FA I would now avoid Houston like the plague; nothing but negative PR, Osuna, "players are still cheaters", etc bad enough; but the big picture is they just lost best SP in baseball, have a great offense, but top 2 SP's are 37 & 36 y.o. Farm system is LITERALLY Forrest Whitley + nothing: ONE "50" grade guy their #2, their #3 is a 45 grade, #16+ are all 40 grades (Pads: 8 "50"+ guys, "45" grades to #30 & likely beyond.) Things could fall apart pretty quickly here.... they can sell off assets to rebuild if the wheels come off, but will get further hindered by the loss of draft picks... hope they become the deserved pariahs of the league.
I can't believe teams will actually hire Luhnow &/or Hinch, Cora, Beltran going forward just from a PR aspect.... we'll see.
Quote from Commie on January 14, 2020, 5:27 pmBoth Houston and Boston should go outside org for replacements. Maybe Dusty gets a call?
Both Houston and Boston should go outside org for replacements. Maybe Dusty gets a call?
Quote from 84padres on January 15, 2020, 7:34 amQuote from JasonE135 on January 13, 2020, 2:57 pmThose lost draft picks are really going to hurt the Astros. It would hurt a lot more if they had higher picks, but it will still hurt them. Especially this year, when there is so much talent coming out.
Can you guys imagine if we lost our 1st and 2nd round picks this year? We are looking at getting a game changing talent even at #8!
Fangraphs estimates the picks are worth between $28 and 32 million. That is using their formulas which could be high or even low, we will never know.
Quote from JasonE135 on January 13, 2020, 2:57 pmThose lost draft picks are really going to hurt the Astros. It would hurt a lot more if they had higher picks, but it will still hurt them. Especially this year, when there is so much talent coming out.
Can you guys imagine if we lost our 1st and 2nd round picks this year? We are looking at getting a game changing talent even at #8!
Fangraphs estimates the picks are worth between $28 and 32 million. That is using their formulas which could be high or even low, we will never know.
Quote from fenn68 on January 15, 2020, 8:25 amQuote from 84padres on January 15, 2020, 7:34 amQuote from JasonE135 on January 13, 2020, 2:57 pmThose lost draft picks are really going to hurt the Astros. It would hurt a lot more if they had higher picks, but it will still hurt them. Especially this year, when there is so much talent coming out.
Can you guys imagine if we lost our 1st and 2nd round picks this year? We are looking at getting a game changing talent even at #8!
Fangraphs estimates the picks are worth between $28 and 32 million. That is using their formulas which could be high or even low, we will never know.
Hard to see how they make that estimate considering similar positioned picks in 2015-17 were:
2017: #30 Alex Lange ..... end of 2nd round (#67) Cory Abbott
2016: #30 Cole Ragans ... end of 2nd round (#70) Conner Jones
2015: #30 Kyle Holder ... end of 2nd round (#70) Jahmai Jones
Unless someone thinks there is a burgeoning super star out of that group (or even a ML regular) OR they think the Astros will instantly plummet to a Top 10 pick ... hard see that valuation on a probability basis. Sure outside chance there could be a Mike Trout sitting a #30 AND then predict the Astros would select him ... but would not place much probability on that .
Houston is still a very very good team with talent players that will keep them the upper ranks for the next couple of years ... the 2020 draft slot is a given and would be surprised if the Astro dropped much in the draft order after the 2020 season (2021 draft).
Houston may be nearing another total rebuild period ... driven more by some aging stars and no farm system more than the loss of draft picks that far down. IF Crane and the new GM sees the same landscape ... and may have some trouble resigning their own FA (Correa?) and luring any major FA ... they may go for a last hurrah in 2020 but then might see some major sell offs of veterans to build some prospect stock.
For Houston ... the end is near.
Quote from 84padres on January 15, 2020, 7:34 amQuote from JasonE135 on January 13, 2020, 2:57 pmThose lost draft picks are really going to hurt the Astros. It would hurt a lot more if they had higher picks, but it will still hurt them. Especially this year, when there is so much talent coming out.
Can you guys imagine if we lost our 1st and 2nd round picks this year? We are looking at getting a game changing talent even at #8!
Fangraphs estimates the picks are worth between $28 and 32 million. That is using their formulas which could be high or even low, we will never know.
Hard to see how they make that estimate considering similar positioned picks in 2015-17 were:
2017: #30 Alex Lange ..... end of 2nd round (#67) Cory Abbott
2016: #30 Cole Ragans ... end of 2nd round (#70) Conner Jones
2015: #30 Kyle Holder ... end of 2nd round (#70) Jahmai Jones
Unless someone thinks there is a burgeoning super star out of that group (or even a ML regular) OR they think the Astros will instantly plummet to a Top 10 pick ... hard see that valuation on a probability basis. Sure outside chance there could be a Mike Trout sitting a #30 AND then predict the Astros would select him ... but would not place much probability on that .
Houston is still a very very good team with talent players that will keep them the upper ranks for the next couple of years ... the 2020 draft slot is a given and would be surprised if the Astro dropped much in the draft order after the 2020 season (2021 draft).
Houston may be nearing another total rebuild period ... driven more by some aging stars and no farm system more than the loss of draft picks that far down. IF Crane and the new GM sees the same landscape ... and may have some trouble resigning their own FA (Correa?) and luring any major FA ... they may go for a last hurrah in 2020 but then might see some major sell offs of veterans to build some prospect stock.
For Houston ... the end is near.




