Quote from fenn68 on March 20, 2019, 6:55 am

Add Bregman (HOU) and Lowe (TB) signing long term deals buying out arbitration years and for Bregman a couple of FA years and with Lowe (with minimal ML time) gives the Rays club options on a couple of FA years.

Another sign of changing philosophy for both the players and clubs? Clubs normally would wait longer before engaging in extension talks while players would see a big windfall by going to FA. In the past couple of weeks Trout, Arenado, Bregman, and Lowe opted for locking down guaranteed money now vs. the gamble on the future and FA. Teams are locking down their own stars (good for their fans) at what some would contend is (or will be) an under market deal.

Again, note this group are all position players ... lower risk of injury significantly altering their futures. So, should we see the Padres moving in a year or so on extensions for the likes of Tatis, Urias, Mejia, Reyes, et. al?

Quote from fenn68 on March 20, 2019, 1:22 pm

Well the trend continues with the CWS signing Eloy Jimenez to a long term deal buying out ALL of his 6 control years and securing club options on his first two FA years.

Times are a changing!

Quote from MrPadre19 on March 20, 2019, 4:00 pm

And Ryan Pressley just signed a 2 year $17.5 mil contract with the Astros.

Who you ask?

Me too!

Ryan Pressley!

This has to make Kimberly scratch his head.

 

Quote from David Jay on March 20, 2019, 8:23 pm

A reminder that Eloy almost certainly gave up at least three years of free agency with this deal as there will be significant changes in service time required to reach it in 2021. I realize how tempting it must be to take life-changing money, but even moderate success over the next few years would have earned him much, much more.

Quote from fenn68 on March 21, 2019, 7:04 am

Unless his career arc is the same as Wil Myers'.

I think I am with him on this ... 22 years old, zero ML time / performance record, and still will become a FA at age 29 even if CWS exercises the two option years.  The basic 6 years ($43MM) is arguably what he could get via arbitration unless he becomes a super star then the two option years would be around $17MM / yr.

Does set a precedent for the Padres and Tatis with this being the largest contract for a prospect with no ML experience. Tatis is 2 years younger and as a SS arguable more valuable .... so will the Padres move to top Jimenez' deal? When? Did see a report (maybe just what someone says as a rookie) that Tatis would like to spend his career with SD so a potential basis. I could see a similar deal (maybe 3 option years) at $100MM. Still he hits FA in his 20s.

Getting the sense that after watching the FA market over the past two winters .... unless you are that super star ... not as lucrative (and higher risk) that before. Getting that guaranteed level vs. the potential for more in the option years is probably a good take given the overall is quite good.

 

Quote from David Jay on March 21, 2019, 7:40 am

Quote from fenn68 on March 19, 2019, 9:12 am

I am sure some will quibble about that contract (length mainly) vs. declining future projections BUT I do think it is good for MLB (and hopefully the Angels) to see a super star have a career linkage to one team.

 

Anybody who thinks the Angels got anything other than a GREAT deal on this contract is an idiot and should be ignored.

Quote from David Jay on March 21, 2019, 7:43 am

Quote from fenn68 on March 21, 2019, 7:04 am

Unless his career arc is the same as Wil Myers'.

I think I am with him on this ... 22 years old, zero ML time / performance record, and still will become a FA at age 29 even if CWS exercises the two option years.  The basic 6 years ($43MM) is arguably what he could get via arbitration unless he becomes a super star then the two option years would be around $17MM / yr.

Does set a precedent for the Padres and Tatis with this being the largest contract for a prospect with no ML experience. Tatis is 2 years younger and as a SS arguable more valuable .... so will the Padres move to top Jimenez' deal? When? Did see a report (maybe just what someone says as a rookie) that Tatis would like to spend his career with SD so a potential basis. I could see a similar deal (maybe 3 option years) at $100MM. Still he hits FA in his 20s.

Getting the sense that after watching the FA market over the past two winters .... unless you are that super star ... not as lucrative (and higher risk) that before. Getting that guaranteed level vs. the potential for more in the option years is probably a good take given the overall is quite good.

 

If I were the agent of a guy who won't hit arbitration until the new CBA, there is ZERO chance I'd sign away anything beyond 2021 right now unless there were seriously extenuating circumstances.

Quote from fenn68 on March 21, 2019, 8:58 am

Quote from David Jay on March 21, 2019, 7:40 am

Quote from fenn68 on March 19, 2019, 9:12 am

I am sure some will quibble about that contract (length mainly) vs. declining future projections BUT I do think it is good for MLB (and hopefully the Angels) to see a super star have a career linkage to one team.

 

Anybody who thinks the Angels got anything other than a GREAT deal on this contract is an idiot and should be ignored.

Agree ... but there are always the anti almost anything folks out there. Fodder for those radio / TV talk shows.

===

I did note that Mookie Betts ... for now ... is rejecting any overtures from Boston on signing an extension citing that Trout left a lot of money "on the table" with his extension and already is making the noise about exceeding that deal in two years. Also, Lindor has said he is not interested in signing any extension and is looking forward to his FA (think in 3 years?) and as a SS could be quite lucrative (Cleveland cannot pay him at the level expected).

So, not everyone is opting for the guaranteed money outweighing the chance of upside money.

The new CBA is clearly a wild card and could impact different player differently. Union is not going to get everything it wants ... the Owners are not going to get everything they want. Where it settles in the middle ?????????

Probably a safe bet that the calculation for achieving the 6 years for FA will change to get rid of these player manipulations to get that 7th year (a lot of different ways) but the owners will probably hold firmly on the 6 year control period. What may be more interesting may be the structure (or elimination) of arbitration for years 4-5-6. Owners would argue that if they are giving up a year of control (the 7th year) they should get a financial offset in the arbitration process (one less year of arb and one more at minimum?) .... especially if they also agree to any significant increase to the league minimum over those years and if they get to a payroll FLOOR and drop the luxury tax. Basically a lot of moving financial parts and how they are resolved is a total unknown.

Quote from David Jay on March 21, 2019, 9:26 am

If you haven't watched Ichiro leave the field at the Tokyo Dome this morning, go do so right now. Then watch it again.

A truly amazing end to an even more amazing career.