Quote from fenn68 on January 21, 2024, 3:39 am

Random thought on changing the approach to penalties of exceeding the luxury tax limits … limits that if you are a team with vast resources are irrelevant.

English Premier League apparently has introduced a “new” penalty approach (at least new to me) for teams that violate the financial / competitive rules … not just limiting future signings but actually penalizing the team “points” in the standings which can be critical in teams qualifying for lucrative and prestige of the European tournaments plus the status in the EPL. Everton got docked 10 points for this season and two other teams are being investigated (in their cases relegation out of the league may be the penalty).

A ten point penalty is large and maybe the same as an 11-12 win penalty in MLB. That is enough to knock most teams out of any playoff run … that really might be an incentive to not overspend consistently.

Specifics can be debated but maybe moving to actual loss of wins as a penalty might have more impact on the over spenders.

Quote from Randy Manese on January 28, 2024, 6:23 pm

Amazed that Colt Keith got a 6 year extension from the Tigers without having played a major league game.   Keith has a lot of raw power but hit tool is rated barely average (40/50) so his in-game power is likely a lot less if he can't get to the ball with impact regularly.  Moreover, he is slow-footed and a poor defensive player who will have to move from 3b or even 2b to 1b or DH.

Wouldn't be surprised if Pauley, who doesn't have Keith's raw power but ranks as equal to or ahead of Keith in all other projection tool aspects, ends up being a much more productive/valuable player for the Padres during those 6 years that Keith is signed for the Tigers.  Understand Keith is ranked #22 by MLB Pipeline and Pauley is not even in the Top 100 but Keith has had a lot more exposure than Pauley so we'll see how this plays out over time.

Quote from fenn68 on January 28, 2024, 6:48 pm

Quote from Randy Manese on January 28, 2024, 6:23 pm

Amazed that Colt Keith got a 6 year extension from the Tigers without having played a major league game.   Keith has a lot of raw power but hit tool is rated barely average (40/50) so his in-game power is likely a lot less if he can't get to the ball with impact regularly.  Moreover, he is slow-footed and a poor defensive player who will have to move from 3b or even 2b to 1b or DH.

Wouldn't be surprised if Pauley, who doesn't have Keith's raw power but ranks as equal to or ahead of Keith in all other projection tool aspects, ends up being a much more productive/valuable player for the Padres during those 6 years that Keith is signed for the Tigers.  Understand Keith is ranked #22 by MLB Pipeline and Pauley is not even in the Top 100 but Keith has had a lot more exposure than Pauley so we'll see how this plays out over time.

Seems as though may be a new trend … MILW just did it with their super prospect (forgot his name) although HOU tried it as I recall with Singleton and that was a a total bust.

IF a team has a real belief in the prospect … projecting out a six year pay projection through league minimum and arbitration decisions then negotiation that down for the guarantee to the player can make sense (unless wrong or the player gets a major injury). Another approach is paying the agreed estimate for the six year and in return get a couple of “beneficial” team options. Gamble yes, but a great benefit to the team with a certain cash flow stream and most likely a lower than market salary … if they are right.

Obviously the player and agent have a lot to do with this move … but could see the Padres going down that route with a few of their elite prospects to help offset the pressure from the locked in big contracts. Probably not a pitcher … but locking in Merrill, Marsee, Pauley, and Salas … for the right prices … could be a major benefit down the road.

Quote from Randy Manese on January 28, 2024, 11:11 pm

On the other hand, I agree with what Milwaukee did - Jackson Chourio is the real deal!

Quote from fenn68 on January 29, 2024, 5:07 am

IF Detroit gambles right on Keith probably a good deal from a few aspects:

The core six year deal of $28.6MM … don’t know the agreed cash flow but … just modeling a normal stream … first three years at league minimum then an arbitration stream about $4.4MM - $8.8MM - $13.2MM. The way salaries are escalating … a productive 6th year ML player likely would exceed that $13.2MM mark.

Player gets a guarantee … team gets a guarantee … those are worth something for long term planning.

The bonus for the club is getting three TEAM options at an average of $17MM (don’t know if they are all equal) which may be fair market or less in years 7 - 9 … that is a long way off and salaries are jumping quite a bit annually.

Not likely an issue for Detroit but if doing a longer term financial plan … the six year base deal nets out a $4.8MM AAV against the tax threshold. For some team that could be a factor by lowering the last year from $13.2 to $4.8 give or take.

Of course Detroit better be right in their projection. I put the advantage to the player getting the guarentee … players fail at a much higher frequency than players achieving elite status.

Quote from fenn68 on January 29, 2024, 5:34 am

Looks as though Detroit decided to spread out the cash flow for Keith:

$2.83 - 3.83 - 4.33 - 4.33 - 5.33 - 5.33MM over the six years (AAV $4.77MM). The options year will escalate each year with that first at $10MM (which would be a great bargain if Keith is even just average). IF is the operative word in all this.

Also, looked a the MILW approach to the deal with Chourio which was a straight 8 year deal:

$2.3 - 4.2 - 7.3 - 8.2 - 9.3 - 15.2 - 16.3 - 18.2 over the eight years (AAV $10MM) … Chourio is a mega prospect … so got a much larger deal than Keith but IF MILW is correct in the assessment those last two years (buying out FA) at what should be a real bargain price … again IF is the operative word.

In both cases the parties agreed to accelerate the cash flow … player get a incentive to agree with early money while the team reduces the cash demand in future years when the payroll demand may be greater for the full roster.

A potential model for the Padres for someone like Merrill? Salas? At some point DeVries?

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 29, 2024, 9:41 am

I could see doing this with Salas in a couple years....no hurry.

As a Catcher he doesn't have to hit .300 to be worth what we could lock him up for if he at least continues to progress over the next two seasons.

I'd let Merrill hit major league pitching before extending him.

Quote from Randy Manese on February 1, 2024, 5:55 pm

Brewers got a good haul for Corbin Burnes considering he is in his walk year.  Ortiz is talented enough to allow them to trade Adames and Hall can fit into any number of situations on the staff, if healthy.  May have cost us Snelling and Kim which would have been okay if Burnes not a Free Agent in 2025.  Orioles have a ton of young talent and this move was relatively cheap one even though a rental.

Quote from LynchMob on February 29, 2024, 11:32 am

Hate having to post this in "Non-Padres" section 🙁

https://www.mlb.com/news/each-team-s-prospect-with-the-best-fastball#nleast

Nationals: Jarlin Susana, RHP
One of the prospect pieces involved in the 2022 blockbuster trade involving Juan Soto, Susana continues to have one of the hottest heaters in the Minors, touching as high as 103 and sitting 97-99. Velo alone would get it an 80 grade, but it’s fairly straight, something upper-level hitters will be able to pick up, and his command can be scattershot. Still, 103 is 103, and Susana will still only be 20 on Opening Day, making him another high-upside talent in the Nats system.