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40-man Roster Before & After Rule 5

Quote from Henry Silvestre on November 8, 2019, 5:04 am

I think Avila + Espinoza are kept on the 40 and transferred to the 60 the 1st day of P and C reporting.. Remember FA now days just starts heating up then.. 😆...  I honestly think we will see 4 for 2 .. 2 for 1 (prospect no protection) 5 for 1 type trade or 2 from AJP in the next 2 weeks.. I can also see a borderline rule V dude getting moved for intl $$ slot.. Or lower A/room league dsl type lotto ticket.. AJP and scouts seem to always buy winning tickets..

Henry, a "big" trade like that is extremely unlikely in next 2 weeks.  This time of year teams are trimming 40-man roster & focusing more on the depth/fringes with re-signing Minors FA, etc...

Agree it's a possibility when offseason really gets rolling after the GM meetings in Dec that end with Rule 5 draft.

Also agree on 2nd part; Pads could trade a fringe guy they don't plan to add, but acquiring team does protect him on their regular 40-man so they are free to option him.

Bit surprised Yardley got released ... not that I thought he had much of a future but was effective enough and would have been useful in AAA. Can’t think the EP pen is that set.

Maybe he requested it and the Padres agreed?

Quote from Brian Connelly on November 8, 2019, 9:36 am
Quote from Henry Silvestre on November 8, 2019, 5:04 am

I think Avila + Espinoza are kept on the 40 and transferred to the 60 the 1st day of P and C reporting.. Remember FA now days just starts heating up then.. 😆...  I honestly think we will see 4 for 2 .. 2 for 1 (prospect no protection) 5 for 1 type trade or 2 from AJP in the next 2 weeks.. I can also see a borderline rule V dude getting moved for intl $$ slot.. Or lower A/room league dsl type lotto ticket.. AJP and scouts seem to always buy winning tickets..

Henry, a "big" trade like that is extremely unlikely in next 2 weeks.  This time of year teams are trimming 40-man roster & focusing more on the depth/fringes with re-signing Minors FA, etc...

Agree it's a possibility when offseason really gets rolling after the GM meetings in Dec that end with Rule 5 draft.

Agree for the most part with the caveat that if they are dealing with a team with either a ton of roster space (some do) or their roster has some tepid prospects worth dumping while the Padres are not asking for a major piece in return ... could pull one off maybe for a non-roster A ball prospect or two not requiring Rule 5 protection to open space for their own players to protect.

Quote from fenn68 on November 8, 2019, 9:40 am

Bit surprised Yardley got released ... not that I thought he had much of a future but was effective enough and would have been useful in AAA. Can’t think the EP pen is that set.

Maybe he requested it and the Padres agreed?

It sounds like the Minors FA types like Yardley & Mejias-Brean DO still have the option to elect FA even if outrighted off 40-man...?

I didn't know that.  I thought they lost that once added to MLB roster but with low MLB service time?  But think that's exactly what happened with Yardley; requested FA, so technically it's a release.

Definitely a significant chance Pads protect no one.  Anyone want to put odds?

My guess:  33%.  But I keep coming back to the combo of Ona's red hot 1st month / 100 PA @ AA, fact his Shoulder surgically repaired might have been bothering him before this season, lack of corner OF prospects @ full season affiliates, but mostly the combo of massive $ commitment to him with the expansion of rosters to 26-man....

Just seems like the exact move Preller would have done 2-3 years ago; poach another team's clearly not MLB ready big Intl FA for pennies on $.  An AL team (more BAD ones) could easily stash him on a 26-man.  If he were a lower profile Intl guy or U.S. non 1st round draft pick, there would be no chance I'd protect him.  But seems like all risk to leave him unprotected in the circumstance.

https://www.mlb.com/padres/news/top-prospects-eligible-for-rule-5-draft

Here's a list of all 30 teams' Top 30 prospects who need to be protected to avoid being exposed to the Rule 5 Draft:

San Diego Padres (2)
18) Esteury Ruiz, 2B
25) Buddy Reed, OF

Quote from LynchMob on November 13, 2019, 6:14 am

https://www.mlb.com/padres/news/top-prospects-eligible-for-rule-5-draft

Here's a list of all 30 teams' Top 30 prospects who need to be protected to avoid being exposed to the Rule 5 Draft:

San Diego Padres (2)
18) Esteury Ruiz, 2B
25) Buddy Reed, OF

Man some teams have like 8-9 solid dudes they have to decide on

Yeah, most years every team has some guys in top 30 PROSPECTS that are R5 eligible... but often not really targets for multiple reasons.  It's very rare for a system top 10 to be unprotected.  Also, keep in mind how different the strengths of the systems are.... another team's #15 might be more like our #30.

E. Ruiz still has a lot of potential, but not much risk of being selected.  I thought Reed just got completely outperformed by Edward Olivares (on 40-man), and now behind Trammell too.  Think he goes the Gettys route of no protect, maybe push to AAA & see if he can break through.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on November 13, 2019, 7:39 am
Quote from LynchMob on November 13, 2019, 6:14 am

https://www.mlb.com/padres/news/top-prospects-eligible-for-rule-5-draft

Here's a list of all 30 teams' Top 30 prospects who need to be protected to avoid being exposed to the Rule 5 Draft:

San Diego Padres (2)
18) Esteury Ruiz, 2B
25) Buddy Reed, OF

Man some teams have like 8-9 solid dudes they have to decide on

Yeah but most of them don't have the best major league rosters either though.

They could make room if need be.

I find it hard to believe that there's going to be a sudden flurry of major trades opening up room on Pads roster in next 24 hours before deadline to add to roster to protect from Rule 5.  I predicted only 2 adds, and could even be none.  But Pads surprised me when they added 7 guys last year this time.  I thought it was too many & made roster too tight, but in hindsight they all look like good moves, so possible they add more than we think?

That leaves the fringy guys, esp Avila & Espinoza slated to miss all or most of the year on IL as possible DFA's to clear room.

Other edge guys:  Margevicius, Martini.

Despite the fact that Kinsler has theoretical "value" to offset a new guy's high salary in a trade; making good "use" of essentially dead $, this is really just a shell game.  It ONLY works if trading for an overpriced player, and could just ask that team to take back that same amount of $ without making them take Kinsler.  I guess a team with less crowded 40-man might hope to recover some $ on Kinsler down the road, so AJP may hold him for now trying to get something out of the "asset" when trade market heats up.