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40-man Roster Before & After Rule 5

Last series of moves no real surprises.  Hope Yardley & maybe even Nix--HORRIBLE look, but drunken idiocy not malice--sneak through Waivers & are outrighted.  Even Minor moves like these I think Preller is a step ahead:  Think he took advantage of all the 60-IL &  called up  Mejias-Brean & Yardley in Sept for the express purpose of trying to keep them in the Org by Outrighting them vs. them becoming Minors FA.  Nix they may just release though.

I've said repeatedly I think they should just release Kinsler.  Having any semblance of "competition" with him vs. Urias is stupid & counter-productive.  Garcia performed, better fits roster by being LH hitter, and is more affordable.

But 2 interesting roster decisions are TJ recovering Espinoza & Avila.  Both will effectively block adding players to  40-man roster all offseason, since can't go on 60-day Injured List until ST starts; at that time would open 40-man spots for maybe a Waiver claim or 2 as teams pare down.

Espinoza will be about 10 months post surgery when ST starts.  Even if he presumably moves to bullpen, Pads would presumably go slow with him.  If kept on roster, he will accrue some MLB pay until healthy enough to be optioned.  It's worth noting that activating him mid-season would then occupy a 40-man spot.  If this happens, he'd have 1 option left next year.  OR could stay on IL all year, retaining 2 options, but would cost Pads $550K+ for obviously no MLB contribution.  Avila just had TJ Surg(?), so he would definitely be on IL all year @ 550K, no MLB or minors play, but would have 2 options left next year.   The other avenue for either or both is to DFA them.  Very likely rebuilding teams with room on roster might claim them.  Espinoza's ceiling was so high & return to play date likely sooner; he might even generate trade interest?

My instinct is to keep Espinoza, but DFA Avila.  What do you guys think?

Quote from Brian Connelly on November 6, 2019, 5:43 pm

Last series of moves no real surprises.  Hope Yardley & maybe even Nix--HORRIBLE look, but drunken idiocy not malice--sneak through Waivers & are outrighted.  Even Minor moves like these I think Preller is a step ahead:  Think he took advantage of all the 60-IL &  called up  Mejias-Brean & Yardley in Sept for the express purpose of trying to keep them in the Org by Outrighting them vs. them becoming Minors FA.  Nix they may just release though.

I've said repeatedly I think they should just release Kinsler.  Having any semblance of "competition" with him vs. Urias is stupid & counter-productive.  Garcia performed, better fits roster by being LH hitter, and is more affordable.

But 2 interesting roster decisions are TJ recovering Espinoza & Avila.  Both will effectively block adding players to  40-man roster all offseason, since can't go on 60-day Injured List until ST starts; at that time would open 40-man spots for maybe a Waiver claim or 2 as teams pare down.

Espinoza will be about 10 months post surgery when ST starts.  Even if he presumably moves to bullpen, Pads would presumably go slow with him.  If kept on roster, he will accrue some MLB pay until healthy enough to be optioned.  It's worth noting that activating him mid-season would then occupy a 40-man spot.  If this happens, he'd have 1 option left next year.  OR could stay on IL all year, retaining 2 options, but would cost Pads $550K+ for obviously no MLB contribution.  Avila just had TJ Surg(?), so he would definitely be on IL all year @ 550K, no MLB or minors play, but would have 2 options left next year.   The other avenue for either or both is to DFA them.  Very likely rebuilding teams with room on roster might claim them.  Espinoza's ceiling was so high & return to play date likely sooner; he might even generate trade interest?

My instinct is to keep Espinoza, but DFA Avila.  What do you guys think?

Interesting post. With you on Kinsler. Nix I'd try to keep around. He didn't hurt anyone but himself and maybe this forces him to get help. Who knows if a subs abuse issue has been holding him back and he has the ceiling some thought he had a couple years back?

Espinoza for bonus pool money or as a throw in for a bigger deal could happen. I would cut Avila too, painful though cuz he looked good in his start in SD.

Could the Padres get a team to eat the Kinsler contract with Nix and Avila paired with him? It seems like Kinsler is respected by Preller/Tingler. I also know Kinsler is popular in the clubhouse and the stars Manny,Tatis, Hosmer, Paddack all enjoy having him around. Kinsler was awful last year, but I wouldn’t be shocked if they bring him back. Plus, Urias is a possible trade chip this offseason so that could dictate if Kinsler is back.
I really hope the Padres keep Anderson Espinoza. There are holes to plug on the 40 man and there is a nice pool of young arms in the system which will make it a tough call. I would hate to see him stay healthy and come up for another team. Franchy and Espinoza are in the same boat for me. There is plenty to doubt, injury history says let them go, but there is just too much raw talent to give up on them.

I would keep Espinosa (way too much potential in a young player) ... I guess I would prefer putting him on the 60 day DL out of ST (the ML money and service time issue is a minimal concern) ... it opens up a roster slot probably until late 2020 (given the rehab assignment will not begin until mid-2020) ... by then other 60 day DL candidates will have emerged (see this year) or players gone via deadline deals. If they activate/option him in July/Aug he will not earn a full ML season of service time. I guess can make the same argument with Avila (less so though). Basically at a cost of a little over $1MM you can keep two legit prospects to the point they can be evaluated post-TJ in a rehab period. Worth the price.

Kinsler is a bit of a head scratcher after last season but there is still a lot of time before the season starts.

1. Possible he could be dealt as part of a package ... Preller has to pursue that route ... and could clear salary

2. Possible he could stay as “back-up” to Urias with Garcia the other reserve INF ... and France gets dealt in a package (should be greater trade value)

3. Possible he gets claimed off waivers by some team really needing a veteran 2B and hoping for a bounce back saving the Padres his contract

4. Possible he clears waivers and the Padres are were they would be if waived now.

So, no really hurry to make the call ... pursue the other avenues first.

Quote from fenn68 on November 7, 2019, 2:02 am

Kinsler is a bit of a head scratcher after last season but there is still a lot of time before the season starts.

1. Possible he could be dealt as part of a package ... Preller has to pursue that route ... and could clear salary

2. Possible he could stay as “back-up” to Urias with Garcia the other reserve INF ... and France gets dealt in a package (should be greater trade value)

3. Possible he gets claimed off waivers by some team really needing a veteran 2B and hoping for a bounce back saving the Padres his contract

4. Possible he clears waivers and the Padres are were they would be if waived now.

So, no really hurry to make the call ... pursue the other avenues first.

You forgot my take..possibly he becomes a player/coach as Tingler's batting Coach and backup infielder

Quote from fenn68 on November 7, 2019, 1:53 am

I would keep Espinosa (way too much potential in a young player) ... I guess I would prefer putting him on the 60 day DL out of ST (the ML money and service time issue is a minimal concern) ... it opens up a roster slot probably until late 2020 (given the rehab assignment will not begin until mid-2020) ... by then other 60 day DL candidates will have emerged (see this year) or players gone via deadline deals. If they activate/option him in July/Aug he will not earn a full ML season of service time. I guess can make the same argument with Avila (less so though). Basically at a cost of a little over $1MM you can keep two legit prospects to the point they can be evaluated post-TJ in a rehab period. Worth the price.

FENN, all this is true, but maybe I didn't stress enough the point of the Thread.  Pads have 2 weeks to protect anyone from Rule 5, and have a full 40-man roster.  While I would tend to agree that these 2 are better long term prospects than any remaining guys that need to be protected, they also have zero chance of contributing this year, and are WAY down (or off) the SP depth chart.  And it's not inconceivable with injury questions they would simply clear waivers.  They are part of the roster pinch point right now, but will also be AFTER Rule 5 too until they can go on 60-IL

I don't see another obvious DFA/release.  So do Pads stand pat with these guys and NOT protect/add anyone else?  A minor trade could happen, but nothing major in trade/FA will happen until after 11/20 deadline.

Well the Padres do have until the 20th to work the 40 man ... assuming they actually want to add anyone to protect from the 40 man and they would have to be considered better prospects than the 40th man.

Would expect that Preller is making calls on trades (even just house cleaning types) that could open slots before axing Espinosa. Would think Avila is at greater risk. Plus I would still see Martini as an easy DFA.

Since it is more challenging to select a player in Rule 5 and keep him on the ML roster than to select a player off waivers and option him to the minors ... Padres have to weigh the upsides of players considered and I would expect if the player to be protected is not clearly superior to the current 40 man roster guy (in their mind) ... they risk to selection via Rule 5.

Martini for sure .... Margevicius (low ceiling with an abundance of arms at risk) .... Kinsler (much discussed) .... Wingenter (has he already peaked) ... and with Margevicius and Wingenter could recoup a prospect or international pool money.

I think their are (will be) equal (or better) quality non-roster options for the Padres if they moved on from any of the above in order to preserve higher ceiling talent. I think they can get through the Nov 20th date without much of an issue ... then Preller needs to work some trades that reduce roster size if he chooses to sign some FA.

We will see.

There are a few teams who are in the position we were in a few years ago when we selected "three" guys in rule V.

I would think Miami,Det,and Balt might all consider picking up Espinoza.

 

Quote from David Nevin on November 7, 2019, 9:47 am

There are a few teams who are in the position we were in a few years ago when we selected "three" guys in rule V.

I would think Miami,Det,and Balt might all consider picking up Espinoza.

 

Got to be active for 91 games at the mlb level.. In 2020 doubt they can do that.. And if they do and he plays in 0 games I think the MLB would come hard on that team for violating the spirit of the law.. Just saying.. Ditto for Avila