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40-man Roster Before & After Rule 5

Wait...these two are already on the 40 man.

So the question is whether we DFA them to make room for others and hope no one picks them up right?

If another team did pick them up in this case they wouldn't have to keep them in the majors at all.....would they?

 

Quote from Henry Silvestre on November 7, 2019, 9:53 am
Quote from David Nevin on November 7, 2019, 9:47 am

There are a few teams who are in the position we were in a few years ago when we selected "three" guys in rule V.

I would think Miami,Det,and Balt might all consider picking up Espinoza.

 

Got to be active for 91 games at the mlb level.. In 2020 doubt they can do that.. And if they do and he plays in 0 games I think the MLB would come hard on that team for violating the spirit of the law.. Just saying.. Ditto for Avila

Actually since Espinoza & Avila are on the 40-man roster, so they would be straight waiver claims (i.e. permanently lost to Pads).  Those teams just like Pads can't put them on 60-day Injured List until after Spring Training Starts, but at that point, can keep them there all or part of year &  full control of player with normal union rules re Min salary, options, etc.

 

Quote from David Nevin on November 7, 2019, 10:06 am

Wait...these two are already on the 40 man.

So the question is whether we DFA them to make room for others and hope no one picks them up right?

If another team did pick them up in this case they wouldn't have to keep them in the majors at all.....would they?

 

Correct on both.  Team claiming them would have to pay them MLB salary though, until they are healthy enough to be optioned down to Minors.  FWIW, MLB.com currently has Avila #24 in Pads system, Espinoza #29.

Avila would be IL all year, so team would be paying 550K for him to rehab with them all season, then come into 2021 ST 18 months after TJ (never actually confirmed; but sounded like terrible injury near end of season) with 2 minors options left.  More likely to go unclaimed & be outrighted where he could still rehab with Pads staff.

Even though it's his 2nd TJ, someone would probably claim Espinoza.  To me he would be an interesting possible minor trade for a non-40 man roster lower level prospect.  But again, with the extreme injury risk, near certainly NOT a SP propspect anymore & almost certain to pay $ to be on IL, possible he just gets outrighted.

Let's change the focus here.  Given Pads current 40 man roster being full, Who if anyone do you guys think Padres WILL protect/add to 40-man (11/20 deadline) in advance of the Rule 5 draft (12/10 I think).  Since they would have to make a corresponding 40-man move to create the space, if you think they'll add 1 or more guys, you "have to" say who they get rid of to make that room...

I say,  ADD:  OF Jorge Ona and one RP needing to be protected; likely Jordan Guerrero

REMOVE:  I'll begrudgingly accept FENN's "keep him for now" argument on Kinsler, and DFA (Trade?) Avila & Margevicius

Reasoning:  My player I think could help Pads most is 2B Ivan Castillo (S); AA Texas league batting champ & Minors FA (so don't HAVE to select him by 11/20).  But he appears to be sandwiched between Team Mexico & USA 2B's Esteban Quiroz (L) - AAA, and #5 Pads prospect Xavier Edwards (S) - likely AA.

Michael Gettys (including by me) & Buddy Reed (S) get a lot of hype as potential #4-5 OF, possibly cheaper options than Margot soon... but they were both vastly outperformed by underrated Edward Olivares already on roster.  And Pads are deep in CF prospects in short term (Trammell + Olivares) & long term (Hudson Head, Ismael Mena, CJ Abrams?)

Where they are weak in system is in corner OF.  If Trammell ticketed for CF, only real prospect in full season ball besides Ona is Tirso Ornelas.  In my mind, don't see how Preller can risk even a tiny 5, 3, 1% chance of losing the 14 MM invested in Ona.  Much higher risk of selection with expansion to 26-man roster.

None of the R5 eligible guys is a "must" add, including any RP, but some are risks to be selected, and the Pads are definitely light in RP depth as they are heavy in SP depth.  Essentially trading out soft tossing LH SP Margevicius for big arm big boy RH RP Guerrero.

Finally, most talented eligible guy might be Esteury Ruiz.  The Pads of 2-3 years ago would have protected his potential for sure.  But 2020 version with deeper roster can't afford a spot for a guy who hit .657 OPS (6 HR) with 27.7% K rate in A+ Elsinore.

I'd go along with Ona as possibly the only one to add to the roster only because rosters expand to 26 next year and he can be stashed on a rebuilding team.  Lots of choices to remove, but I'd start with Martini, then Kinsler before Avila even though Avila will probably not see the field this year.  Saw Esteury Ruiz play several times in Lake Elsinore and he looked lost as a hitter.  Great raw tools but too much chase/swing and miss.  Also, he definitely is not an infielder so he would have to really be special to hold down a corner OF spot.  I like Eguy and any of a host of RH RPs, but the latter typically can be found in almost any system or as minor/major league FAs; I don't think Eguy will be drafted despite the progress he showed in his second year at Lake Elsinore and versatility in the field.

 

I am sort of sitting on the fence on protecting any players ... some combo of the questionable ceiling on some and how far away they are from the ML. To a degree thinking a low percentage they get selected (and kept) ... and if they did would that be such a problem vs. who would be removed to protect them.

I can see Ona being a tough one given the raw skills he possesses, still young, and hot start in AA ... probably would add Ona ... drop Martini.

I would take the risk on E.Ruiz, E.Rosario and any other position player.

Pitching is always a hot target in Rule 5 ... so a bigger risk of selection. Harder to handicap the options since that may be more based on “stuff” and potential than 2019 results. Two names that should be considered .... Lake Bachar who pitched in AA and Elliot Ashbeck (yes older but back for TJ) who the Padres though enough of to send to AZ Fall League where he performed well. Both could be 2020 RP factors allowing the potential for dealing a RP off the current roster in a bigger deal ... decent RP carry trade value (e g Perdomo, Wingenter, Reyes) but initially would drop Margevicius / Avila.

So on the fence since not are “compelling” but the players that would be removed are also not “compellng’

Padres signed a few of their minor league FA ... let 8 leave. Two may have some potential influence over future moves:

Rivas (C, AAA) ... nice veteran minor leaguer who has been in the system for a few years. With his return probably as a AAA back-up and if Hedges / Mejia hold the ML role and Torrens/Allen also ticketed for AAA ... his signing may signal the intent of the Padres to deal one (or more) of the current catchers.

Castillo (INF, AA) ... clearly had a great year in AA but considering the Padres signed him last year as a minor league FA ... maybe he has some flaws. Now eligible for Rule 5 ... so might get lost there ... or before Nov 20 he may get added to the 40 man. Might hinge on the Padres making a minor deal before that date to get an open slot.

Guessing the Padres had to give him a good contract to get him to resign v jumping to a new organization where he would have a clearer path to the ML. Maybe that is a signal that he would be added to the 40 man on the 20th.

Castillo’s ceiling is probably that of a reserve INF ... and that is fine if he is a good one. With Kinsler and Garcia probably not around in 2021, France not really a middle INF, and only two near term contenders in Miller and Quiroz (both non-roster) keeping him around may make sense. If Kinsler / Garcia get moved this winter ... he could be a factor in 2020.

I think Avila + Espinoza are kept on the 40 and transferred to the 60 the 1st day of P and C reporting.. Remember FA now days just starts heating up then.. 😆...  I honestly think we will see 4 for 2 .. 2 for 1 (prospect no protection) 5 for 1 type trade or 2 from AJP in the next 2 weeks.. I can also see a borderline rule V dude getting moved for intl $$ slot.. Or lower A/room league dsl type lotto ticket.. AJP and scouts seem to always buy winning tickets..

1-10

Tatis Jr

Hosmer

Mejia

Paddack

Machado

Yates

Strahm

Munoz

Lucchesi

Richards

11-20

Lamet

Lauer

Margot

Urias

Renfroe

Castillo

Hedges

Quantrill

Baez

Morejon

So thats 20...

Next 10 (21-30)

Kinsler

Garcia

Espinoza inj

Avila. Inj

Naylor

Franchy

France

Bolanos

Allen

Perdomo

 

This ^^^^ group can have some movement

31-40

?????? This is the group that will be very difficult to pinpoint come 11/20

But figures to include 6 pitchers and 4 position players or so

Quote from fenn68 on November 8, 2019, 2:37 am

Padres signed a few of their minor league FA ... let 8 leave. Two may have some potential influence over future moves:

Rivas (C, AAA) ... nice veteran minor leaguer who has been in the system for a few years. With his return probably as a AAA back-up and if Hedges / Mejia hold the ML role and Torrens/Allen also ticketed for AAA ... his signing may signal the intent of the Padres to deal one (or more) of the current catchers.

Castillo (INF, AA) ... clearly had a great year in AA but considering the Padres signed him last year as a minor league FA ... maybe he has some flaws. Now eligible for Rule 5 ... so might get lost there ... or before Nov 20 he may get added to the 40 man. Might hinge on the Padres making a minor deal before that date to get an open slot.

Guessing the Padres had to give him a good contract to get him to resign v jumping to a new organization where he would have a clearer path to the ML. Maybe that is a signal that he would be added to the 40 man on the 20th.

Castillo’s ceiling is probably that of a reserve INF ... and that is fine if he is a good one. With Kinsler and Garcia probably not around in 2021, France not really a middle INF, and only two near term contenders in Miller and Quiroz (both non-roster) keeping him around may make sense. If Kinsler / Garcia get moved this winter ... he could be a factor in 2020.

Others were:  previously "outrighted" INF Mejias-Brean, RP- Tyler Higgins, SP/RP-Emmanuel Ramirez, & RP-Carlos Belen.  Saw on Pads site separately that RP Eric Yardley was Released, which I think just means he had right to elect (Minors) Free agency.

Really surprised & pleased they brought this many guys back.  Thought it would be many fewer.  It's conceivable they are all MLB ST invitees; definitely Castillo, Higgins, Rivas.  With all these guys back & system depth, this year should definitely have the fewest Minors FA signed; just not much need beyond Injury depth.

I'm psyched about Ivan Castillo.  He's still only 24; 1 year older than Luis Torrens, only 6 months older than Owen Miller who he arguably outperformed at the same level:  Higher BA, hit 5 more 2B/3B in 75 less AB (but 5 less HR), lower K rate only 13.1%.  His weakness is patience at plate; only 20 BB.... more on Minor League thread.   But the fact that he did not receive a MLB deal from not only the Padres, but any other club either, does strongly imply that he WON'T get selected in Rule 5 draft.  Pure speculation, but guessing he got a very strong (50% MLB minimum?) Minors contract with ST invite.

Rivas & his agent are being smart & opportunistic.   See that something has to give with Hedges salary up & Torrens running out of  options.  Been around a long time & knows the system's P's & coaches well.  Good org asset as is E. Ramirez as AAA/AA long relief swingman.  Mejias-Brean must see an opening, maybe as the RH 1B getting occasional starts vs LHP?  Higgins flashed early in season, then derailed by appendectomy.  Preller &/or coaches must really see something in Belen; keep bringing him back.