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30-man Active O.D., 40-man MLB, 60-man "Taxi" Rosters
#51 · July 2, 2020, 11:26 am
With 3 weeks of "summer camp" for players who have not played in 3 1/2 months but the need to get them up to speed faster than a normal ST .... have to be flexible for dealing with soft tissue injures (obliques, hamstrings, etc.) and just some players not being in competitive playing shape or for hitters having their timing down.
That "open" 40 man roster slot gives the Padres the chance to fill it as the most critical hole emerges without having to run someone on the 40 man through waivers. For that reason, would not fill it now for someone to just fill the 27-30 spots for 15 or 30 days.
With the position flexibility of the players on the 40 man (and probably 26 man) .... don't see the real value of a Lagares or Almonte (both a past their use by dates) unless the Padres loose multiple OF to the 45 day IL. Not sure of any veteran non-roster INF . So, shuffling on the 26 and backing up with France, Cronenworth, and Oliveras probably can cover a 60 game schedule.
I guess if that spate of injuries hits around SEPT 1 and the Padres are still in contention ... might shift to a veteran add ... sort of depending on who is out.
Player versatility and roster flexibility maybe be the watchwords for a short season under these unusual circumstances.
#52 · July 2, 2020, 11:43 am
Quote from Brad Mills on July 2, 2020, 10:06 amJose Quintana out for a while after cutting his hand.
Could the Padres be a trade partner for Lucchessi, Davies, or Q? Anybody in their farm worth trading for? Anytime a player goes down I imagine Preller is the first to call
"could" ... yes, but not likely.
Not sure that Quintana will actually miss much of the season (still 3 weeks away) ... so CUBS are not going to over react now. Plus not much to give up out of their system (at least not players they would deal).
On the flip side, the Padres have no way to know who of their SP options will be healthy, ready for the start of a season in which most seem to think the starters may only initially be going 50-60 pitches before the "second starter" comes in to get them to the end of the pen. Padres "advantage" is depth of pitching to allow for that easy move into the first month of the season.
Now maybe late in August after the SP get their innings up ... and if everyone is healthy ... Preller may see an opportunity to deal an "excess" SP.
#53 · July 2, 2020, 11:44 am
40-man roster now at: 39
Must add by Dec: 4 (#2 Patino, #4 Trammell, #8 Arias, #16 Munoz (60-day IL) )
"Will" add in season: 1 (#1 Gore)
Bubble to add by Dec: 0 - 6 (#15 Lawson -TJ surg, #18 Potts, #19 Marcano, #21 Ornelas, #22 J. Rosario, #31 A. Espinoza (60-day IL) )
TOTAL 44 - 50
Free Agents 3 - 1 (G. Richards, Yates, Profar)
Non Tender/Trade Vulnerable ($) 3 - 6 (A-3: Davies, Garcia, Hedges, A-2: Perdomo, Strahm, A-1: Lucchesi)
TOTAL 38 - 43
The top total better shows the 40-man roster pressure, since Gore & others may be added during the season. The Purple #'s are "Maybes", so Pads obviously not going to add ALL those prospects. I would prioritize adding: Lawson, Marcano, & Ornelas over keeping Anderson Espinoza on roster. If he's (likely) on IL all year, he will still have 2 options left next season, so time to develop, but ultra health risk with essentially a 4 year layoff from pitching for even a dominant RP tough to hold onto him...
I think Davies, Garcia, & Perdomo will be non-tendered (or traded) to save $. I think Hedges, Strahm, and especially Lucchesi could be. Lucchesi if healthy will have 3 full years as SP so his A-1 salary will be significant. Hedges value to Pads may dramatically increase with a DH in NL, but that's up in the air (?) for 2021. Strahm good, but spending a lot of $ on RP contracts already. Even though expensive, don't see how they can non-tender cornerstone Pham unless he falls off a production cliff or has health issues. Also Arb eligible: Lamet (A-2, 4 yrs arb) & Pagan (A-1) are locks to return.
I am wondering if the extreme downward pressure on the FA market in 2021 might make a return of G. Richards possible? My theory is: He (8.5) + Davies (5.25) make 13.75 MM this year (full contracts)... so if Davies were traded or Non tendered, could actually improve upon that duo in 2021 without spending more $ as: Richards (13 MM) + Gore ("minimum").
#54 · July 2, 2020, 11:57 am
Hopefully Richards shows some loyalty after we sunk $8 mil into him last year for only 10+ starts this year
#55 · July 2, 2020, 12:15 pm
Not sure the fascination with Richards at this stage of his career. Next season he will be 33 and not have had a full season of work since 2015 ... he better be lights out (if he stays healthy) in 2020 or he is closer to a non roster invitee than someone who will get a big contract ... especially in a year where money for "gambles" will be limited.
#56 · July 2, 2020, 12:28 pm
Money, age, alternatives, productivity all will shuffle our 40 man for Rule 5.
FA (not resigned): Yates, Profar, Richards
IL returned: Munoz, Espinosa
Added: Patino, Lawson, Arias, Trammell
.... 2 over ...
remove 2 from: Reyes, Wingenter, Bednar (all three if they add Gore).
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Now will not be surprised if instead they trade or non-tender Garcia, Perdomo, Hedges ... and even maybe trade Pham or Davies to save money.
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The winter 40 man should be "easy" to construct.
#57 · July 2, 2020, 12:40 pm
I think most are underestimating the value of Davies. Check out his 4 year career numbers AWAY from Miller Park ... 50 starts / 282 innings .... 3.04 ERA / 1.25 WHIP ... that may make him the Padres #1 SP when you consider his home games will be at PETCO.
Padres may trade him (2021 last control year) but will tender him a contract ... might even extend him.
#58 · July 2, 2020, 6:30 pm
Quote from Brian Connelly on July 2, 2020, 11:44 am40-man roster now at: 39
Must add by Dec: 4 (#2 Patino, #4 Trammell, #8 Arias, #16 Munoz (60-day IL) )
"Will" add in season: 1 (#1 Gore)
Bubble to add by Dec: 0 - 6 (#15 Lawson -TJ surg, #18 Potts, #19 Marcano, #21 Ornelas, #22 J. Rosario, #31 A. Espinoza (60-day IL) )
TOTAL 44 - 50
Free Agents 3 - 1 (G. Richards, Yates, Profar)
Non Tender/Trade Vulnerable ($) 3 - 6 (A-3: Davies, Garcia, Hedges, A-2: Perdomo, Strahm, A-1: Lucchesi)
TOTAL 38 - 43
The top total better shows the 40-man roster pressure, since Gore & others may be added during the season. The Purple #'s are "Maybes", so Pads obviously not going to add ALL those prospects. I would prioritize adding: Lawson, Marcano, & Ornelas over keeping Anderson Espinoza on roster. If he's (likely) on IL all year, he will still have 2 options left next season, so time to develop, but ultra health risk with essentially a 4 year layoff from pitching for even a dominant RP tough to hold onto him...
I think Davies, Garcia, & Perdomo will be non-tendered (or traded) to save $. I think Hedges, Strahm, and especially Lucchesi could be. Lucchesi if healthy will have 3 full years as SP so his A-1 salary will be significant. Hedges value to Pads may dramatically increase with a DH in NL, but that's up in the air (?) for 2021. Strahm good, but spending a lot of $ on RP contracts already. Even though expensive, don't see how they can non-tender cornerstone Pham unless he falls off a production cliff or has health issues. Also Arb eligible: Lamet (A-2, 4 yrs arb) & Pagan (A-1) are locks to return.
I am wondering if the extreme downward pressure on the FA market in 2021 might make a return of G. Richards possible? My theory is: He (8.5) + Davies (5.25) make 13.75 MM this year (full contracts)... so if Davies were traded or Non tendered, could actually improve upon that duo in 2021 without spending more $ as: Richards (13 MM) + Gore ("minimum").
Davies, Hedges, Strahm and Lucchesi will all be tendered contracts. Davies puts up consistent ERA's under 4.00. Teams kill for those kinds of starters. Lucchesi is consistently just over 4.00. Both of those guys have real value. Strahm is a plus reliever, every team needs those.
#59 · July 7, 2020, 12:07 am
Apparently Gore was hit around quite a bit during the intrasquad game. Dont expect him to be on the OD roster (per AJ Cassavel)
#60 · July 7, 2020, 7:28 am
Quote from Ben Davey on July 7, 2020, 12:07 amApparently Gore was hit around quite a bit during the intrasquad game. Dont expect him to be on the OD roster (per AJ Cassavel)
It would be ludicrously stupid to NOT gain an extra year of control over Gore (& Patino) by having them "down" for just (minimum) 7 days.
Would literally be sacrificing a year control over either or both for 1 start or maybe 2-3 RP appearances in a season that could fall apart any time & get cancelled. Even if either were dominantly obviously 1 of the best P's, it STILL wouldn't be worth it....
The "if it were a normal season, they'd be up by now" makes no sense. They aren't there yet. Both were clearly headed to AA in March before the shutdown.