Quote from Brian Connelly on June 28, 2020, 4:51 pm

With all these "new" variables changing this season:

• Only 60 games,
• DH in NL,
• short ramp up/ST,
• 30-man for 15 days /then 28-man for 15 / THEN 26-man,
• Extra innings “man on 2^nd” rule (= fewer extra innings over 60 games than old rules)
• threat of COVID affecting roster or stopping play altogether
• 60 player "pool",
• No Minor League play,
• overall Budget/$$ crunch

…the dynamics of roster building are definitely impacted.   Here are the players who, roughly in order, are impacted (this post) most positively and (next post) most negatively especially with regard to winning a spot on 30-man O.D.roster:

Impacted Positively:    Josh Naylor, Cal Quantrill, Franchy Cordero, Jose Castillo, Tommy Pham, Ty France, Greg Garcia* (.370 OBP vs RHP), Austin Hedges*, Michel Baez, (Cheap LH/SH 2B/Util:) Jake Cronenworth*,  Breyvic Valera (.302/.374/.442 >1,500 AAA PA), Ivan Castillo  (RH CF's:) Edward Olivares, Michael Gettys, Juan Lagares*, (Injured P's:)  Trey Wingenter, Ronald Bolanos

Naylor’s potential value to Padres increases more than anyone with the early arrival of the DH.  With no AAA to play/develop, short ST/compressed schedule & 30-man (plus DH), Quantill & Cordero lock up spots.  Castillo likely would have been on IL; he & Pham now at full health.  Pham will be almost as “every day” as Machado & Tatis in lineup; he’s a cornerstone.

Not having Franmil Reyes really hurts Pads DH situation vs LHP.  France could be the beneficiary since Myers & Mejia should often be on the field vs LHP.  Garcia’s limitations defensively & vs LHP shrink substantially in a 60-game season with that juicy OBP vs RHP via his good eye/pro PA every AB; he could be the majority starter @ 2B in a platoon.  Hedges value on a team with DH is higher; much less of a liability batting 9^th with no P behind him.  Baez has increased opportunity at both SP & long RP.  Cronenworth clearly benefits from the removal of the restrictive position player as pitcher rule, but might benefit from time in “EST” to both build up his arm / work on P AND practice defensively more at 2B; his versatility is more valuable on a 26-man roster than a 30 or 28.

Valera was a presumed DFA end of regular ST to open a 40-man spot for likely Brian Dozier.   The 40-man roster remains very tight so he still could be.  But the new rules really change the dynamics of his situation:  30 teams x 4 extra players = 120 additional MLB active guys on O.D. rosters.  A cheap, controllable SH utility guy with Valera’s track record @ AAA would be near certain to get claimed… WHEN rosters are still at 30.  Much less likely when cutting back to 28 or 26.  So from the sheer standpoint of controlling depth as long as you can, it would make more sense to keep him on roster for at least first 25% of season than to remove & lose him for the entire season.  Looking ahead or even present, his cheap control is attractive vs. $ to Profar, Dozier, & Garcia as a potential stopgap; and he’s now “only” 60 games away from 2021 offseason vs 162.  Ivan Castillo (25) is > 3 years younger than Valera, not on the 40-man, but also a bat-first, SH, 2B/utility guy.  I think he’s a late blooming prospect, and have him in my top 30 prospects.  25 is old for a “prospect”, but Cronenworth is 26.  Both guys should get long looks in ST2.

The MOST glaring weakness of the Padres by the addition of the DH isn’t the lack of an obvious RH DH candidate.  It’s the defensive ability of their CF.  This is a consequence of both Naylor & Cordero being locked into MLB roster spots by adding DH, no AAA, & 30-man.  5 OF with BEST CF defensively being Trent Grisham is NOT OK.  With DH the need for bat first good PH drops, the need for a speed pinch runner / defensive sub increases.  It’s crazy NOT to have a bench spot devoted to this with 30 guys on roster to start.  Olivares can definitely run with 35 SB last year, better offensively and has the BIG advantage of already being on 40-man, but is not at the same level defensively as Lagares or Gettys.  Lagares is more “established”, but 3x more expensive, and less controllable (next post).  Gettys actually does ideally fit that role as a cheap PR/defensive sub who is > defensively in CF/RF than Olivares, and can be optioned down when rosters shrink, but he isn’t on the 40-man.

Finally, Wingenter & (already optioned down) Bolanos face more healthy competition, but at least they are healthier themselves too.

Quote from Brian Connelly on June 28, 2020, 4:59 pm

Impacted Negatively:   (Arb salary/Minors FA:) Brian Dozier, Jurickson Profar, Abraham Almonte, Juan Lagares*; Luis Torrens, David Bednar, Jake Cronenworth*, (Guys going into 3^rd year of Arb:)  Zach Davies, Greg Garcia*, Austin Hedges*,  (Impending FA🙂 Kirby Yates, Garrett Richards, Profar

In a 60 vs 162 game season, I would be surprised to see both Dozier & Profar on the team.  They are different players, but too similar; defensively limited or questionable at 2B, and bad vs RHP in 2019.   I believe Dozier over a full season would have allowed Profar to take some of Hosmer’s starts vs LHP to get better matchups, but over just 60 games  = 15? 20? vs LHP, it’s hard to justify not putting 20 MM Hosmer out there every day (esp with a DH in lineup) & just living with it.  Hosmer’ $ is a sunk cost, but look for all teams including Pads to try to save $ around the edges elsewhere.  Profar hurt IMO by Garcia’s effectiveness vs RHP over a short season.  Makes him “just” the weak side of a 2B platoon.  His versatility is a plus IF someone else becomes unavailable, but in a 60-game season, just not going to be many starts available at 1B, SS, 3B.  Does he justify the $ when there are a lot of other options?  Maybe not.  My prediction is Profar stays, Dozier not added to MLB roster.

Almonte was having an excellent early ST, but that doesn’t matter now, and he does not fit the Padres OF composition need as well now as he looked like he might back in March with old rules, as a possible 5^th OF with Cordero or Naylor going to AAA.  He & Lagares being out of options, requiring 40 man spot, AND (Lagares) costing more $ than alternatives hurt chances.

Torrens would be a 30-man roster lock on a NL team under old rules and he could still be there O.D, but the DH and the travelling taxi squad decrease the need for a 3^rd C.  Bednar has more RP slots open, but more competition for those slots with guys healed up.  Cronenworth’s medium-long term situation is improved, but his short term (2020, esp O.D. roster) chances may have decreased in the “sprint” season scenario with DH; with no MLB experience & Garcia’s presence… but I really don’t think Garcia will return next season.  He, Davies, & Hedges are all very vulnerable as non-tender candidates headed into 2021 when almost every team is going to look to save $.  Hedges 4th year of arb control has value, which also increases with a DH (prior post), but there will be a crunch next year with Torrens (probably) & Mejia both out of options.  One of these 3 likely has to go this offseason.  Pads took on $ with Davies partly to get Grisham and improve on Eric Lauer, but more to provide innings to bridge to Gore & Patino.  That bridge is no longer needed.  He’s very likely to be in O.D. rotation, but is now the “most likely to be traded” Padre.  Don’t be surprised if it happens with Pads in playoff race, or even before the season to clear the way for Gore & Patino.

Kirby Yates may have taken the biggest financial hit of anyone relative to his career $, age, & impending FA.  The impact to he & Richards is solely financial (Profar covered above).  But their loss could conceivably be Padres gain.  I believe the chances have increased that Pads re-sign 1 or 2 (but not all 3) of these guys to 1 year deals this offseason with the way FA market may play out heading into the CBA negotiations after 2021 season.

Quote from Brian Connelly on June 28, 2020, 5:06 pm

Quote from Ben Davey on June 26, 2020, 11:44 pm

The problem is if you can only trade players on this 60 man roster, so it is hard for Preller to wheel and deal when his hands are tied.  Plus with virtually every team being within a few games of a playoff spot on Aug 31st its hard to imagine GMs will be selling

Agree.  Remember, if every team has (roughly) it's 40-man roster plus 20 more guys in their pool, that's a LARGE % of their entire Farm system that is not available in trade.  Padres prospect talent skews towards top of system right now, but that's not true for every team, so many teams best prospects are simply too far away from MLB to be in their 60-man pools.

I guess the other side would be that this just damages THOSE teams ability to make trades, whereas teams with lots of their top 10 prospects in the 60-man pool would be better trade partners for teams looking to move big ticket assets like Lindor.

Quote from fenn68 on June 28, 2020, 6:04 pm

Remember if a player is on the 40 man ... he has a guaranteed contract in 2020 ... so he will get the full prorated amount ... so no financial benefit in dropping Profar and the like.

Now the non-roster vets ... not sure what they are signed for if they are added to the ML roster (but likely much more than their non-roster pay for the taxi squad).

From a team standpoint ... not sure the “wiggle room” in payroll vs. the desire to put a contending team on the field. Dozier, Almonte, and Lagares are all in that grey area but probably fair non-roster insurance given the alternatives to the alternatives.

Dozier might surprise and get added to the active roster ... if the Padres want a quick start ... a quality veteran who was know for “hustle” and a decent glove at 2B might be a better bench option than France or Cronenworth in the INF. Remember Profar can play SS/3B/1B/OF. How do they factor in the best options for a “fast start” and not get trapped in a failed test of an unproven player?

Quote from fenn68 on June 28, 2020, 7:24 pm

Saw the list on MLBTradeRumors ... surprised. First if I read it right they only had 52 players ... not 60. Then some interesting omissions and inclusions.

from the 40 man exclude was Munoz (no surprise) and Ona.

non-roster NOT included: Dozier; Almonte; Lagares ... actually only Eickhoff is a veteran non-roster. Plus Rivas as the 5th catcher.

incuded were Hassell, Abrams, Head, Castillo, Weathers along with Gore, Patino, Campusano, Arias, Trammell, and Miller.

Unless there is a late addendum to fill up the “60” because of some technical details .... Padres went young for development and must be relying on their 40 man to get them through the season. Seem to think they are “short” on pitchers with experience.

Interesting. Maybe saves a few dollars in 2020.

Quote from fenn68 on June 28, 2020, 7:39 pm

Have noticed that teams in general are NOT listing 60 ... more towards the Padre level of 52 ... Mets 45!

Maybe I missed a quirk in the rules but not seeing the upside of not including some low cost minor league veterans as "insurance".  Actually of the Padres' 52 ... not expecting 5-8 to even be considered for ML time in 2020.

I guess only players on the initial 52 roster can attend ST2 but possible more players can be added to the 52 then be invited to camp. Fuzzy. Possible some veterans with "opt out contracts" are working through some details to return under different deals then get added? If that is the way the rules play ... maybe the Padres are hunting down some veterans not included by some other club. Does sound as though the Padres seem OK with coverage for 2020 with his group of 52.

Quote from fenn68 on June 28, 2020, 7:56 pm

Kevin Acee

@sdutKevinAcee

· 33m

You can pretty much count on Cole Wilcox being added to the pool when he signs. Also, veterans like Brian Dozier and Juan Lagares could be added after a week or so. Padres went with top prospects and players they felt were closest to making the big-league team when spring ended.

Quote from fenn68 on June 28, 2020, 7:58 pm

Kevin Acee

@sdutKevinAcee

·

51m

All players will work out in San Diego, at Petco Park and USD. Arizona too hot. Also, the "taxi squad" will be located in San Diego or Lake Elsinore during the season. Peoria out, as much for heat issues as COVID-19 spike in AZ.

Quote from Brian Connelly on June 28, 2020, 10:44 pm

Quote from fenn68 on June 28, 2020, 6:04 pm

Remember if a player is on the 40 man ... he has a guaranteed contract in 2020 ... so he will get the full prorated amount ... so no financial benefit in dropping Profar and the like.   Is that true even for guys with Arb salaries like Profar?  I thought they could be released before Opening Day at some portion (1/6?) of their salary.   Only making 37% of salary, so only 1/6 of that does seem unfair.

Now the non-roster vets ... not sure what they are signed for if they are added to the ML roster (but likely much more than their non-roster pay for the taxi squad).  Assume Pads would have to live up to the previously agreed upon contract with each guy (2.2 MM to Dozier, 1.4 MM to Lagares); pro-rated like every other MLB player.

From a team standpoint ... not sure the “wiggle room” in payroll vs. the desire to put a contending team on the field. Dozier, Almonte, and Lagares are all in that grey area but probably fair non-roster insurance given the alternatives to the alternatives.  Not sure, but I KNOW spending ex. 1 MM is a MUCH bigger deal now than it was on March 1st

Dozier might surprise and get added to the active roster ... if the Padres want a quick start ... a quality veteran who was know for “hustle” and a decent glove at 2B might be a better bench option than France or Cronenworth in the INF. Remember Profar can play SS/3B/1B/OF. How do they factor in the best options for a “fast start” and not get trapped in a failed test of an unproven player?  Issue I have with Dozier is he wasn't good vs RHP last year which is the same issue Profar had.