Quote from fenn68 on July 17, 2020, 11:05 am

In this era of analytics ... someone in the Padres front office has to have constructed a model on the probability of IL stints in the first 60 games of every season across MLB for the past X years. The result may skew differently than a full season when wear and tear begin to take it toll later in the season.

Yes, injuries are random (to the player) but maybe an analysis by position or age might show a higher probability for one or more profiles ... and lead a team to add extra insurance for those profiles. Or it may show the odds of IL stints in the 60 game slate are too small to worry about.

Gut feeling is that the position player probability is low. Pitchers would be the concern (Maybe) ... and with a short summer camp and maybe going full bore out of the blocks could be even more at risk.

IF the Padres add to the 60 ... might make sense for some more ML fringe arms (Yacabonis type) than another prospect. Also "protects" the pitchers on the 60 that they really don't want to start the clock (e.g. Wilcox, Weathers, Cantillo).

We see next week as the 60 gets locked in.

 

Quote from fenn68 on July 17, 2020, 11:38 am

Short term issue with Mateo ... still not cleared after testing positive for COVID-19.

IF I understand the rules he can be on the COVID IL until he clears MLB protocols. That opens a 30 man slot for now. However, once he clears he is added to the 30 active since he as no minor league options remaining but he has not been working out with the team (or likely anyone) for ??????.

His return (as I understand the rules) would force a “ready” to play player off to accommodate a “not ready to play” option. Of course his role is defense / PR back-up initially ... so not a disaster. He has “in season time” to get his game up and at least we are at the 30 level ... not the 26.

Might make some difference on the other 30 selected if he is back.

Bet the Padres are “negotiating” with MLB to allow some sort of “rehab” window (as with a normal IL) where he can work with the inactive group for x number of days. Don’t think that was covered in the agreement to resume.

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 17, 2020, 1:02 pm

If TB was all in on using him both ways we should probably consider it.They seem to be on the forefront of innovation when it comes to multi use arms etc.

But probably won't be until Cronenworth takes Garcias roster spot...next Spring?

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on July 17, 2020, 2:57 pm

Quote from fenn68 on July 17, 2020, 11:38 am

Short term issue with Mateo ... still not cleared after testing positive for COVID-19.

IF I understand the rules he can be on the COVID IL until he clears MLB protocols. That opens a 30 man slot for now. However, once he clears he is added to the 30 active since he as no minor league options remaining but he has not been working out with the team (or likely anyone) for ??????.

His return (as I understand the rules) would force a “ready” to play player off to accommodate a “not ready to play” option. Of course his role is defense / PR back-up initially ... so not a disaster. He has “in season time” to get his game up and at least we are at the 30 level ... not the 26.

Might make some difference on the other 30 selected if he is back.

Bet the Padres are “negotiating” with MLB to allow some sort of “rehab” window (as with a normal IL) where he can work with the inactive group for x number of days. Don’t think that was covered in the agreement to resume.

Definitely a unique non-ideal situtation.  Seems only fair to get SOME "rehab" time.  But in a 60 game season, the clock is ticking so fast that really that's the bigger problem:  obviously didn't intend in trade to have to have him spending 1/4-1/3 of the entire season "rehabbing".  But Pads should push for as long as possible, then they can bring him up sooner if they think he's ready.

Quote from fenn68 on July 18, 2020, 1:43 pm

I guess we know why the Padres wanted a second opinion of Wingenter’s elbow.

Wingenter having TJ Surgery and will miss 2020 and probably 2021.

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Not a key cog in the pen for 2020 but would have been some experienced depth in Summer Camp.

Adds to the desirability to add some non-roster veteran RP to the 60.

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Padres have a lot of flexibility on the 40 man ... sitting at 38 after dealing Cordero and Bolanos for Hill and still can put Wingenter and Castillo on the 45 day IL. So, effectively, able to add 4 players without having to drop anyone ... that add to the 40 can happen as needed during the season if the player is on the 60 ... so that is the first step.

(note: Munoz and Espinosa are already on the 45 day IL).

Quote from Ben Davey on July 19, 2020, 1:03 am

So really the Padres have a lot of room if they feel the need to add players to the 40 man.  This might make it easier later on to do a 2:1 deal before the deadline.

Sad about Trey, here is hoping for a speedy recovery

Quote from fenn68 on July 19, 2020, 6:14 am

Looking at the current 40 and 60 .... would guess the activation of Patino, Gore, or Eickhoff becomes less complicated.

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Eickhoff could be a dark horse ... no idea how he is doing but of all the veteran non-roster players the Padres signed over the winter ... he is the one who made the 60 so must have shown something.

He is 30 now and was very good in 2015-16 then the wheels fell off. Not sure the issue(s) but think he had some nerve issues in this hand. If injures open the window .... maybe a long relief option?

Quote from fenn68 on July 19, 2020, 6:47 am

Both the 40 and the 60 man rosters do give Preller a lot of flexibility for the trade deadline along with having all of their top prospects on the 60. So, depending on the situation, positioned to be a buyer or a seller ... or both.

From all the commentary I have heard/read .... no consensus on how the trade deadline will develop .... but a lot of thought it will be a lot less active than in the past.

1. After one month, will there be enough “sellers” of desirable players to create a market?

2. With the trades being limited to the players on the “60” that cuts down the trade chips from teams that left off some of those lower level ... but desirable ... prospects (the kind that Preller often targets).

3. With only one month to play (and playoff potential) ... is a team going to offer much for a FA to be (e.g. Yates, Richards, Profar) and will they offer anything for a non-impact FA to be?

4. Teams may want to shed payroll ... will teams want to add payroll? Contracts (especially if they impact 2021) may be a bigger factor when they consider they are making the move for one month in 2020. Maybe the buyer and seller see waiting on the bigger / longer term contract players  until the winter when alternatives are better. (Thinking a Linder type player).

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Of course we are dealing with Preller ... so if trades are possible he will be the GM that makes them.

Just working off the Hill trade ... looking as though the Padres will NOT jump to a “seller” quickly and if anywhere within playoff contention will gamble they will get there ... so maybe a “buyer” or a “hold” is the best guess.

How far out of contention will they have to be to turn them into a “seller” with one month to go? If my premise that any FA to be will not generate much of a return ... who else does Preller have (and want) to deal that another team would make a desirable offer to get? I can think of names ... harder to see buyers giving quality in return.

Quote from fenn68 on July 19, 2020, 9:50 am

Not confirmed but looks as though the Padres have added two insurance policies to the 60 man:

1. Camarena ... LHSP ... 27 .... no ML experience and not all that effective in the minors primarily as a SP ... maybe the fact that he is LH and Padres may see something in him as a RP?

2. Yacabonis ... RHRP ... 28 .... was a good minor league RP a few years back ... converted to a SP but was not effective over the last two seasons (even after going back to RP) in the ML .... maybe the Padres think he can return to his RP form and he did do well in ST as I recall.

Insurance for a disaster scenario and the space on the 60 was there ... some protection from getting into a situation where they need to add one of the prospects that they do not want to (Wilcox, Weathers, Cantillo) and prematurely start their clocks and next year their option count.