Quote from fenn68 on July 12, 2020, 6:44 pm

Listening to Tingler’s presser ... sounds as though a lot can change in a week plus but leaning to have those last 4 roster spots include 2 relief pitchers and 2 position players.

Did suggest that since every game is critical in a 60 game schedule ... and with a deep pen ... he may lean to not letting starters work out of jams if they are struggling and go to the pen. So, starters may be out after 3-4 innings if needed. Also, suggest starters may go full bore early (not saving anything for a third time through the roster) and get pulled for relief.

Interesting observation on schedule that may help the Padres ... “early” in the season the Padres play almost everyday but that is when they have the extra quality arms. “Late” in the season when they drop back to 26 with less pitchers they have a lot of off days to allow for rest of the pen.

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Wonder how much of that win out of the gate mentality for pitchers translates to position players ... more platooning? more going with the “hot bat”? How long will they go with a player slumping?

Sounds like good news for Olivares and France in the short run ... RHH to balance Cordero, Naylor, and Grisham LHH. See who survives the first and second cut in August.

Quote from Brian Connelly on July 13, 2020, 8:00 am

Ona really is behind on his development after going out in May last year after a promising start.  Most important thing for him is to just not lose another entire year not playing at all.

I'm REALLY glad Tingler is leaning towards 15 P's total, not 16/17.  HATE the "let's only go with 4 OF" ... on a 3o-man roster?!  talk.  Everyone's focused on P usage, but less so on the LH/RH matchups, DH, late game defensive/pinch runner subs, etc.  As or maybe more important to have options there to use on a daily basis!  Have to keep in mind with P's esp RP's; CAN still option guys up/down.  It's just that each time down misses a much higher % of total season.

If 2 "extra" RP's, 1 is Quantrill.  Top 7 RP's pretty much locks if healthy.  Wingenter's elbow even if minor likely takes him out from O.D. discussion.  That leaves 2 spots among:  Baez, Morejon (L), Bolanos, Perdomo, Bednar, & G. Reyes and Non 40-man Gore (L), Patino, Eickhoff.  

Still think if Mateo clears protocols even just days before O.D. he is one of the 2 "extra" position players.  That would really leave last spot for EITHER 3rd C, 4th bench Inf, or a 6th OF.   Logical choice is 3rd C with Mateo & Profar theoretically OF capable.  Sounds like Olivares is REALLY pushing for a spot.  So similar to Cordero;  athletic, fast, strong-armed.  Probably less power.  But more disciplined at plate, better hitter/less K's, AND better defensively in CF/RF since has played OF his whole career.   Cordero or "DH only" Naylor squeezed out?

Quote from fenn68 on July 13, 2020, 9:45 am

I am leaning toward Olivares and France as the two "extra" position players .... both RHH both can handle multiple positions. IF the rest of the roster includes Hedges, Hosmer, Garcia, Mateo, Cordero, Grisham, and Naylor ... only Naylor seems to handle LHP decently and that is still below average. Need RHH support for maybe both DH and CF plus the jury is still out on Profar for 2B.

A week for Tingler to figure out who is hot and who is not and then only 2 weeks to make the next cut of 2 down to 28. Perform when given the shot or be banished.

Unless they plan to DH Mejia ... not sure the value of a 3rd catcher which also means Hedges would have to bat ... and that is never a good idea. Not sure that Mejia as DH is all that much better than any combo of other hitters the Padres have to fill that role but the offensive hole from Hedges would be a drag. Seen nothing to suggest Torrens bat is ready to beat out Hedges or Mejia.

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With only 2 extra pitchers .... no reason (need) to add a non-roster player at this time. Guessing we will see Morejon, Bolanos, Reyes, and Bednar initially in waiting on the taxi squad (maybe if healthy, Wingenter). The two extra that will go down during August should be Baez and either Quantrill or Perdomo. All have minor league options. Don't think any of the other RP have options (or just don't want to option them).

Of course they have (I think) an open 40 man slot with Munoz / Espinosa on 45 day IL and could add a second by putting Castillo on the 45 day. So not a roster issue in adding Gore, Patino, or Eickhoff. See them as easy adds as the active pitchers start either under-performing or getting injured. Timing ... roster management in the weird season ... and who is hot may make for some unexpected decisions.

Quote from Ben Davey on July 13, 2020, 10:31 am

The biggest difference in roster makeup will 100% come from how far Tingler will let starters go in games.  If he is willing to let them go 5-6 innings in a start,then we can pretty much run on a 6 man bullpen.  With pitchers 7 and 8 being used for extended innings if needed (maybe every 3 or 4 days), so thats 13 pitchers needed.

If instead you have starters only going 3-4 innings , then you are going to need AT LEAST 2--3 more relievers so we are looking at 16 pitchers including multiple relievers that can go 2-3 innings.

I get the idea of not wanting to have the starters go 110+ pitches, but theres a big difference between 45-50 pitches and 90-100 pitches.

Quote from Brian Connelly on July 13, 2020, 11:14 am

Quote from Ben Davey on July 13, 2020, 10:31 am

The biggest difference in roster makeup will 100% come from how far Tingler will let starters go in games.  If he is willing to let them go 5-6 innings in a start,then we can pretty much run on a 6 man bullpen.  With pitchers 7 and 8 being used for extended innings if needed (maybe every 3 or 4 days), so thats 13 pitchers needed.

If instead you have starters only going 3-4 innings , then you are going to need AT LEAST 2--3 more relievers so we are looking at 16 pitchers including multiple relievers that can go 2-3 innings.

I get the idea of not wanting to have the starters go 110+ pitches, but theres a big difference between 45-50 pitches and 90-100 pitches.

GREAT point!  There are fewer games, but the frequency of games is only slightly more "compacted" than a 162 game season.  So while it is a "sprint" where every game does count more, it's hard to see every day the SP getting yanked in the 3rd inning b/c we're down 2-0 with a guy on 2nd & 1 out or whatever... run more risk of blowing up the bullpen using them this way.

I do think the first 10-15 games with 30-man teams will manage as if all in playoff contention in Sept with expanded rosters (and the DH = less PH more defense/Pinch run subs).

Quote from fenn68 on July 13, 2020, 11:28 am

Don't think Tingler is worried about pitch counts differently than any other year. More about making moves that add to the chance of winning games.

With Lucchesi that is getting him out of the game before he hits the 3 time through the rotation.

With Davies (RHP who does not have a particular issue with the third time through) the idea that he works as a "soft tosser" who hits corners might be really complimented with an entirely different profile coming in mid game (e.g. Pomeranz or Strahm) and really messing up the opponents line-up.

With them all he apparently does not want to see if they can work out of jams (if not falling way behind or losing a lead) and more quickly jump to a RP option.

In a short season every win/loss is magnified and Tingler seems to want to approach games as elimination games (60 must wins). I think we will be have a tough time moving from "normal line-up management" and the "short season line-up management" ... not only for SP but also position players.

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I think they have the mix of bodies to work through the 30 man roster (first 15 days) and even the 28 man roster (second 15 days). That is a month to find out who is hot and who is not ... and that may dictate the mix of players for September. If anything, the decisions should not be set in stone for any length of time ... expect a lot of audibles called during August.

Quote from Brian Connelly on July 13, 2020, 11:41 am

My guess:  26-man "normal" 5-man 'Bench':   Mejia (S), Garcia (L), Mateo, Naylor (L) OR Cordero (L) - not both, Olivares

I'm stuck on Naylor/Cordero.  Naylor looks like a DH only on this team to me.  Cordero theoretically could take some starts in RF vs RHP, but he has to earn it.  All the development time he's missed both as a hitter and defensively as an OF REALLY hurt in the shape of this season where there is no time to learn on the fly or knock the rust off in AAA for 1-2 months.  Olivares is defensively superior, can run, takes good AB, and is logical to get some starts in CF vs LHP.  Better roster fit than the other 2 if he's ready.  Mejia, Garcia, & Mateo are all out of options.

Opening Day:  30-man estimating Two "extra":  France, Torrens

France & Mejia the 2 most obvious DH vs LHP, but would also have Olivares & Torrens as less likely possibles.  But Torrens actually has the most obvious role:  1)  Could make some starts vs. LHP who Hedges unbelievably is even WORSE against offensively.  2)  This is the big one:  With the DH "helping" mitigate Hedges bad offense, his elite Defense is more valuable, and I expect him to start 75 - 80% of time.  BUT:  At least in the first 15 games, if down in a close game, could pinch hit & replace Hedges with Torrens, which would give team better chance of winning.  Expect the reverse too; Hedges subbing in defensively late in games he doesn't start to help protect a small lead.  Mejia early on may only catch later in games in blowout wins/losses; like Cordero he needs to develop at his position defensively, but can't afford to in a 60-game season.

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 13, 2020, 12:47 pm

Thinking about 2 or 3 Catchers.

I could see us starting Hedges for defense/calling game expertise and then leaving him in when we have the lead or tied but

pinch hitting for him with Mejia when we are trailing...esp. against a RH pitcher.

If Tingler plans to deploy this strategy we may need Torrens on that roster....unless they feel comfortable with the emergency Catcher(Myers/France)?

Which I highly doubt.

 

Quote from fenn68 on July 13, 2020, 1:07 pm

Don't envy Tingler making a critical roster call in a hit the road winning scenario and having to sort through players with no experience vs. MLP (Olivares, Mateo), very limited experience (Torrens, Cordero, Grisham, France, Naylor), and limited success (Profar, Mejia, Garcia). All that unknown based on a couple of weeks of "summer camp" to start and the absolute need to change out if some is badly slumping.

At least on paper ... would think the DH platoon of Cordero (crushes RHP but can touch LHP) and France (who can hit LHP). Plus keep two players who can cover other positions and have some ML history to consider as a basis ... albeit limited. Now I do think Tingler will run a lot of players through the DH role to give them some time off from the field (rest) but keep their bat in the line--up ... especially in the heat of August after a long run of consecutive games. Another advantage for the Cordero/France idea .... not so much for Naylor.

Olivares ... hard to tell if he can hit ML pitching (after only in AA last year) but have to consider whether Grisham can hit LHP. Those two questions may either get Olivares as the platoon CF ... bump France as the RHH DH ... send him to camp. How long to they wait to "know" if every game is an elimination game?

Hedges? Don't really know how they can start Hedges (and his known unproductive bat) until they know if they are getting any offense out of CF-DH-2B. Having four under performing offensive slots out of the blocks can create a lot of losses that his defense will not offset. Don't forget the opponent has a DH and scoring may be more important. IF the other 3 slots hit ... maybe Hedges is inserted as a regular later in the season when the other bats can carry him.

No right answer today based on what we know or don't know ... just be ready to juggle as needed.