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30-man Active O.D., 40-man MLB, 60-man "Taxi" Rosters
#411 · September 1, 2020, 2:55 pm
OK. 5 guys still coming onto roster....
- Austin Adams will just stay on IL-60 for now, so no corresponding move... yet. See below.
- Taylor Williams can & will be Optioned
- Dan Altavilla will take David Bednar's spot (Optioned). Altavilla can't be optioned; would have to be DFA'd.
- Mike Clevinger will probably take Adrian Morejon's spot (Optioned). Adrian has looked really good, but the only other possibilities are Perdomo & Patino who have also been good recently. Keep Adrian on his schedule but not too many pitches so he could come up as a SP if neccy?
- Greg Allen can be Optioned... but will he? Probably. Because Almonte is still on Taxi/40-man; so could come up next day if neccy. Personally I REALLY don't like going THAT thin in the OF where you're going with Profar or Mateo every day in LF with the other as the only real backup OF... sure doesn't "feel" like a playoff team plan; especially with a 28-man roster! But the only alternatives are: Perdomo or Patino OR the more outside the box ideas of:
A. DFA Altavilla. It really looks like the Pads wanted Williams in the larger trade, but for whatever reason couldn't get there, and got Altavilla "instead". Once another 40-man spot opened up in the Clevinger trade, and seeing how their 28-man projected rest of year, they circled back to Seattle to get Williams. All my speculation. NOW they could simply DFA Altavilla. Someone might claim him, but doesn't look like much of a loss.... didn't know at the moment they acquired him that they would be able to pull off the Clevinger trade. Chance he doesn't get claimed.
B. DFA Mateo. At this stage, Mateo is literally on roster to steal a base at a critical moment like extra innings. He would absolutely get claimed if DFA, so seems unlikely. They traded for him in the first place to have his speed for the playoffs.
C. DFA Guerra. This makes no sense. Emilio Pagan said Guerra has "as much talent as any teammate (P) he's ever seen". Don't think that's getting said about Altavilla. I get Guerra isn't "there" yet; but Pads are 99% likely to make the playoffs now. Switching still developing Guerra for a 4th OF or mediocre 11th pen arm isn't going to cause Pads to miss playoffs. When they set their playoff rosters, Pads can & will leave Guerra off. Even though Preller himself couldn't have forseen all of the trades playing out the way they did, he could have traded Guerra standalone at the last minute for SOMEthing.
D. DFA Stammen. It's unlikely. But here's my thought process. The door closes on the trade deadline. But teams have until Sept 15th to add guys to their 40-man roster to potentially be on playoff rosters. Does one (or more) of the many .500 range NL teams still have "need" in pen. Almost certainly. Would one team that maybe missed out on some better targets at deadline, CLAIM Stammen & his past pedigree? Would only incrementally cost them about 500K.... this season. The bigger issue is next year when he's owed 4 MM (+ 500K incentives) AND 1 MM buyout in 22. So I admit it's unlikely.
But by timing a DFA of Stammen--ideally after stringing together 2-3 good outings-- so that he would HAVE to be claimed before the 9/15 deadline-- say on 9/10-- it would challenge teams to claim him vs. simply waiting until he's a FA to sign him at vet minimum with Pads eating the rest . So this whole idea while unlikely is MORE likely to happen if/ when Austin Adams comes off the 45-day IL.
The better time to unload some/all of Stammen's $ would be in the offseason, trading him with Lucchesi (minimum $) for a PBTNL, and maybe eating 1 -2 MM of what he's owed. Would still save 3 -4 MM.
Bottom line: Last decision being made between F.O. & Tingler is whether to option Greg Allen or DFA Altavilla.
#412 · September 1, 2020, 3:13 pm
I think your thoughts on Allen have merit. During a game emergency, can put Nola, Mateo or even Moreland in the OF and subsequently bring up Allen or Almonte. Need to sort out the value of these bullpen arms in the next 10 or so days given lack of options for many are restricting.
#413 · September 1, 2020, 3:26 pm
Quote from Randy Manese on September 1, 2020, 3:13 pmI think your thoughts on Allen have merit. During a game emergency, can put Nola, Mateo or even Moreland in the OF and subsequently bring up Allen or Almonte. Need to sort out the value of these bullpen arms in the next 10 or so days given lack of options for many are restricting.
You're probably right... but yikes. Nola 1 game in OF in 2019. Moreland a terrifying idea; hasn't been out there in years.
I know it looks kind of weird to DFA Altavilla when we just traded for him, but don't see the big deal; probably going to do it anyway when Austin Adams is ready. He might clear waivers, then have him at Alt site.
#414 · September 1, 2020, 3:43 pm
I am leaning toward optioning Allen had just have him on the traveling taxi squad. If someone in injured during the game Mateo can cover all three OF slots before even considering Nola / Moreland. Allen can be in the line-up the next day.
Buy the extra time to evaluate ... no reason to lose a player in early SEPT if you don't have to. Doesn't help that Allen is not hitting and his defensive metrics have not played all that sell in the ML.
13th position player that is not likely to actually plan with this line-up vs. the 16 pitcher who probably will not appear unless a blowout (either way). Not a critical decision based on either player.
#415 · September 1, 2020, 3:46 pm
I am guessing Preller wanted Williams in the big deal .... SEA would not include him for the return package and probably was negotiating with another team for a better return. Preller may have left with this is my offer (Blash) call me if you change your mind. Seattle went to the other bidder and said best the Blash offer ... didn't ... Seattle call Preller and say OK.
#416 · September 1, 2020, 8:13 pm
Not sure this applies to Altavilla or Williams but we've been able to pick up some nondescript pitchers off the proverbial scrap heap over the years and turn them into pretty good closers, i.e., Brad Hand and Kirby Yates. Someone apparently saw something when they played against us, so I'm at least willing to keep an open mind in how they might fit in with the Padres. It certainly wasn't a salary dump by the Mariners so we must have asked specifically about both of them. Who knows?
#417 · September 1, 2020, 9:25 pm
Quote from fenn68 on September 1, 2020, 3:46 pmI am guessing Preller wanted Williams in the big deal .... SEA would not include him for the return package and probably was negotiating with another team for a better return. Preller may have left with this is my offer (Blash) call me if you change your mind. Seattle went to the other bidder and said best the Blash offer ... didn't ... Seattle call Preller and say OK.
Makes sense. Remember, didn't have the open roster spot until after the Clevenger trade, so that may have been part of the hangup somehow. Anyway. Ended up with 2 RP vs 1.
#418 · September 1, 2020, 9:55 pm
Quote from Randy Manese on September 1, 2020, 8:13 pmNot sure this applies to Altavilla or Williams but we've been able to pick up some nondescript pitchers off the proverbial scrap heap over the years and turn them into pretty good closers, i.e., Brad Hand and Kirby Yates. Someone apparently saw something when they played against us, so I'm at least willing to keep an open mind in how they might fit in with the Padres. It certainly wasn't a salary dump by the Mariners so we must have asked specifically about both of them. Who knows?
In reviewing some different takes on the trades, I saw multiple times that Williams AND Altavilla both had pretty good ERA's... until that fateful miracle comeback by the Pads. Short season really skews #'s. Preller/Tingler/Rothschild etc just saw them; so must have seen something there... they may be in the plans more than we think. But have also seen some reviews raving about Greg Allen's OF range....
I just hate the idea of being down a SH all 3 OF position good defender with speed right when we're short OF to the point where we're starting 2 utility INF; one with a sub .200 BA vs RHP, the other with 13 AB. Not saying Allen should start, but could platoon him with Profar batting 9th. Hard to see the last pen guy, coming off an off day (everyone fresh), with a much stronger #5 SP now, having as much impact. I'd rather see them keep Allen up, then option him if they have to add an arm to the pen later into the 15 game stretch... try to get as close to Pham return (9/18? my speculation) as possible.
#419 · September 1, 2020, 11:49 pm
They wouldnt have traded for Altavilla if they were just going to DFA him. He has a big fastball, and could be useful down the line. I believe he is out of options and might just stick for right now
WIlliams has options and will probably be optioned just because he doesnt have room. There are a lot of really good reports on him
I think Allen's ability to play all three OF positions means he stays. Since the 1-9 lineup should be pretty much the same every game that means we can limit the bench spots. Castro, Garcia, Allen, Mateo (thats 13).
10 spots in the pen. Still gives you Pom, Rosenthal, Pagan, Hill. Alt, Strahm, Guerra, Johnson with 2 spots left for Stammen, Morejon, Williams, Patino, and Perdomo. My guess is Stammen and Perdomo stay. Could see a reshuffling for playoffs with both left off the roster in favor of Morejon and Patino
#420 · September 2, 2020, 7:22 am
I expect you are on target .... doubt Preller had Altavilla and Allen in the deals if he did it plan to keep them on the 28 man ... but I would not be surprised if Williams also make the 28 at the expense of ?.
Should note on Allen he does have an option and considering he could not hold down a spot in a weak Cleveland OF over the past years should temper our view of his value. A few points (in comparison to Profar) for their careers:
wRC+ vs RHP: Profar (89) / Allen (80)
wRC+ vs LHP: Profar (98) / Allen (27)
So Allen does not represent an offensive improvement over Profar ... and like Garcia a non factor vs. LHP.
From a defensive standpoint in LF:
dWAR: Profar (2.3 in 353 innings) / Allen (2.1 in 428 innings)
So pretty much a defensive push in LF ... note that Allen in CF was -5.1.
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Don’t see him anything more than an emergency backfill for this Padre team and maybe a PR in certain situations (sort of the Mateo role).
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In Cassavell’s article on the Padres’ website ... tucked as somewhat a throw-away comment .. was the Padres (at some point) may activate Mejia as a 3rd catcher for his bat (if it comes around at the alternate site I guess).
Fair question for the playoffs ... when games tend to be closer and the use of the pen is more focused on the top arms. Could the drop to 14 pitchers and 14 position players?
A lot of permutations with some good options in constructing a playoff roster ... Padres have to, at some point, look at match-ups vs potential opponents.