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30-man Active O.D., 40-man MLB, 60-man "Taxi" Rosters
#401 · September 1, 2020, 6:41 am
Tingler said in his post game that he, his staff, and Preller are going to sit down today (and maybe into tomorrow) to determine the 28 active roster going forward to the LAA series. Given the number of RP that have no minor league options ... not an easy call.
In a playoff run, an argument can be made for the 10 “best” right now (although hard to get consensus on “best”) BUT if that means losing some good options because they need to be DFA and then an injury or two to the “best” and ending up with a poorer option ... is that strategic (now) if getting into the playoffs close to 100% (remember they are winning with these guys).
Is it better to hold on to the out of option arms for another couple of weeks before changing out to the better options ... basically an injury insurance policy?
At what point do they start looking at the best mix for the playoffs ... giving them some ramp up time on the active roster ... may not be who we see as the individually the best?
We know Preller likes to challenge his young prospects ... will that hold for a playoff roster? Does he want Patino and Morejon in that final mix ... at the expense of DFA of others?
A lot of strategy ... beyond pure production ... for a Sept 1 decision vs. a Sept 15 decision vs. a playoff decision.
Is it time for some “minor” injuries to create some IL calls for out of option pitchers?
#402 · September 1, 2020, 8:30 am
If we send someone down now, barring injury, they have to stay there for at least 10 days which would make the player eligible to return prior to the 15 Sept decision on playoff roster. 1st consideration - is there anybody that has some sort of arm discomfort to end up on the IL? 2nd consideration - who has remaining options? 3rd consideration - with Clevinger and hopefully all our starting 5 going at least 6 innings, probably don't need as many long men. If we need to add Clevinger, Altavilla and Williams to the roster then I see Bednar, Perdomo and Morejon going down for now. The two that really should go down are Stammen because he has been terrible and Guerra, because he is still learning how to pitch but that's probably not going to happen. These next 10-14 days will determine what to do with Altavilla and others, particularly if Castillo and Adams are really ready to pitch. I'm thinking that it is probably too risky to count on them - more likely that Yates comes back since neither has faced game situation batters all year. If Altavilla and/or Williams fails to impress, then DFA'd and Morejon and/or Perdomo come back. Yates is a long shot but a sentimental favorite.
#403 · September 1, 2020, 8:53 am
Looks like Williams has an option left, so doesn't have to be DFA'd. He has < 2 weeks to prove his value to take into the playoffs.
#404 · September 1, 2020, 9:21 am
I would be nervous about Adams, Castillo, or Yates being activated in mid-late September not having pitched in games for a long time ... causing some players to get DFA/optioned ... getting up to playoff caliber effectiveness in about 3-4 appearances are RP. Maybe an easier call if there were 6 weeks to go in the season.
Has Yates even been throwing ... with effort ... since the elbow surgery? Just no idea on Altavilla unless they give him a 2 week "test" then DFA him for a call-up.
If not now, in the next two weeks, I can see a timely injury to a RP out of options and on the bubble that takes him out for the season.
I do think this is nearing the end for Guerra ... love the upside but if the Padres are going all in on the playoffs .. he is not one of the top 10 RP in 2020. On the other side, even though they have options, thinking we may see Patino and Morejon make it in the pen for the playoffs ... pitching well and additionally getting playoff experience. Having Morejon as the 4th LHP might be useful v the LAD in a 5 game set.
#405 · September 1, 2020, 9:57 am
OK, my Sep 2 "base case" not requiring the DFA of anyone .... understanding that I expect changes over the next few weeks. Basically the Padres are in the position to buy time to fully evaluate everyone prior the getting the best mix for the playoffs.
1/2: Rosenthal / Pomeranz (L)
3/4: Pagan / Strahm (L)
5/6: Johnson / Hill (L)
7. : Perdomo (maybe the only "long" option" remaining if they option Morejon / Patino)
8/10 (out of options): Stammen / Guerra / Altavilla
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Alt site: Williams / Patino / Morejon (L) / Bednar / Baez / Lucchesi (L)
IL (no options): Adams / Yates
IL (options): Castillo (L) .... Espinosa / Wingenter are not coming off the 45 day.
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Maybe the question is do the Padres want to buy 10 days by optioning Williams / Morejon / Patino and making a final evaluation on Stammen / Guerra / Altavilla ... see if any injuries reshape the needs. Still time to bring them back before Sept 15th.
A good chance Williams does make the 28 now and Guerra gets DFA.
#406 · September 1, 2020, 10:05 am
Outside option is going with 16 pitchers for now (12 position players) and option Allen to the traveling taxi squad.
Given the new line-up ... setting up for the same 8 non-catcher position players playing every day and not a big call for PH. Nola / Castro split C plus Nola can play other positions if needed. So, Mateo and Garcia could be the emergency bench covering INF/OF.
Might save Guerra for now ... and Guerra can play INF in an emergency.
Maybe a two week strategy before really settling in on the playoff roster.
#407 · September 1, 2020, 10:06 am
If they DFA Guerra they still hold the rights to him, correct?
#408 · September 1, 2020, 10:26 am
Quote from hoffy51 on September 1, 2020, 10:06 amIf they DFA Guerra they still hold the rights to him, correct?
First, will any team claim him off waivers? 100 mph FB good (but not that uncommon these days) and not good results with no minor league options ... teams with full 28 man rosters (full 40 man rosters) might not even want to gamble. Good chance he clears but not a given.
Second, Guerra must be at (or very near) the threshold for becoming a minor league FA ... might have to convince him (probably not hard) to resign in 2021.
I would guess they would have a good chance to have him back in 2021 on a minor league deal ... but no guarantee.
#409 · September 1, 2020, 1:06 pm
Quote from hoffy51 on September 1, 2020, 10:06 amIf they DFA Guerra they still hold the rights to him, correct?
100% certainty a non-contending team would claim Guerra off waivers. Think they see his easy motion & velo developing into what traded Andres Munoz might in future. It will be easier to "hide" & develop Guerra during a regular season where every game isn't so critical than it is now.
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#410 · September 1, 2020, 1:18 pm
I agree that at least one rebuilding team would find a spot for Guerra.
Like the Red Sox/Royals/Pirates etc. with nothing to lose at this point.
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