Quote from fenn68 on September 29, 2025, 1:04 pm

Same logic surround the three pitchers ... King, Cease, and Suarez.

1. King ... who is likely the #1 priority ... should get the QO and the Padres would like him to take it (if not re-signed).
2. Suarez ... will decline his player option at $8MM since is stats as a closer suggest he is more a $12-16MM player but at his age may not get that long term deal and if the second year of a 2 year deal yields nothing (or little) ... $22MM guaranteed for 2026 the re-test FA after the lockout might make sense. With Miller around ... should not make the QO.
3. Cease ... with Boras as his agent very likely to turn down a QO even coming off a mediocre season. League likes him and for the analytical his 3 years prior 12.7 WAR (avg 4.2) ... suggest a $30MM player ... no way he gets that BUT still with Boras working the market well over $20MM / multi-year. Padres offer / Cease declines ... move on.

Quote from fenn68 on September 29, 2025, 1:06 pm

Quote from Jeremy Hill on September 29, 2025, 1:03 pm

I can't see them giving Arraez a qualifying offer. O'Hearn isn't eligible to receive one. I would consider bringing Arraez back. I think he's someone who could benefit more than most from the challenge system being implemented next season. I would offer him something like 3/40. Really I would like to try to find a bigger power bat though. Schwarber would be the dream. I imagine he'll be too pricey. I might take a shot on Hoskins or Okamoto from Japan.

Keep forgetting the trade exclusion. Thanks.

Quote from MrPadre19 on September 29, 2025, 1:32 pm

Quote from Jeremy Hill on September 29, 2025, 1:03 pm

I can't see them giving Arraez a qualifying offer. O'Hearn isn't eligible to receive one. I would consider bringing Arraez back. I think he's someone who could benefit more than most from the challenge system being implemented next season. I would offer him something like 3/40. Really I would like to try to find a bigger power bat though. Schwarber would be the dream. I imagine he'll be too pricey. I might take a shot on Hoskins or Okamoto from Japan.

Rather have Alonso than Schwarber but neither are realistic based on our SP needs.

 

Quote from Jeremy Hill on September 29, 2025, 3:11 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on September 29, 2025, 1:32 pm

Quote from Jeremy Hill on September 29, 2025, 1:03 pm

I can't see them giving Arraez a qualifying offer. O'Hearn isn't eligible to receive one. I would consider bringing Arraez back. I think he's someone who could benefit more than most from the challenge system being implemented next season. I would offer him something like 3/40. Really I would like to try to find a bigger power bat though. Schwarber would be the dream. I imagine he'll be too pricey. I might take a shot on Hoskins or Okamoto from Japan.

Rather have Alonso than Schwarber but neither are realistic based on our SP needs.

 

I think Schwarber's bat is going to age better than Alonso's and his market may be more limited as a strict DH. I don't think either is likely. I do think there's a chance we try to leverage our bullpen depth with multiple starter conversions. I think Miller, Reynolds, Morgan, Hoeing, Marinaccio, Matsui and Morejon all have the arsenals to potentially make or remake the transition. That could free a little more money up to put the finishing touches on the offense.

Quote from fenn68 on September 29, 2025, 3:41 pm

If Preller has trade chips ... RP should be the main options even if Suarez is let go. At this point have to assume Adam is back early in the season at the latest.

Probably not for top players but Preller has to consider moving Reynolds and/or Marinaccio (both out of options in 2026) and as RHRP Miller, Adam, Estrada, Morgan are ahead of them as RHRP options ... plus Rodriguez and Hoeing in the picture. Maybe bundled with ? for a useful return.

Collectively that is a very very low cost RHRP pen ... only Adam will make any money in his last year of arb. With that group ... if Adam was clearly healthy ... he might have been a the top trade chip for the best return and clear some salary ... but he is not.

Should see one of the RHRP (or two) moved to strengthen the bench be it OF or INF or C.

Quote from fenn68 on September 29, 2025, 3:51 pm

Wonder IF they can get a clear 9th bat ... would they trade Estrada. He is league minimum and with a lot of years of control ... only 26. That should appeal and in his last two seasons with the Padres he has pitched innings ... very good WHIP/BAA and, I think, lead MLB in Ks by a RP ... all that is loved by the teams who value analytics.

Might be worth the gamble if the player return really filled one of the major shortcomings in the 2026 position player projection.

Quote from ultratvfan on September 29, 2025, 5:17 pm

Zac Gallen will be a free agent after the season. Maybe the Padres should sign him. Of course the first priority is to re-sign King.

Other FAs that are a possibilty are 31 year old Tyler Mahle and Adrian Houser.

Quote from fenn68 on September 29, 2025, 6:34 pm

Quote from ultratvfan on September 29, 2025, 5:17 pm

Zac Gallen will be a free agent after the season. Maybe the Padres should sign him. Of course the first priority is to re-sign King.

Other FAs that are a possibilty are 31 year old Tyler Mahle and Adrian Houser.

It all is a function of signing King. If they do, expect them not to go after an expensive SP option ... maybe more a lower cost "swing man" in case of injury. A starting rotation of Pivetta, King, Musgrove, Darvish, Vasquez would be a good way to start the season but then high risk to backfill for injury (Sears, Hoeing, ? ... Waldron is out of options so?). Might also sign some "make good" ML arms trying to rebound to minor league deals.

After King the focus really as to be deploying some money of offense. As it stand they have Tatis, Cronenworth (L), Machado, Merrill (L), Laureano, Sheets (L), Bogaerts, Fermin, then 9th hitter is ??????? out of Johnson (#), Wagner (L), McCoy, Ornelas (L), and Campusano. Not ideal.

Padres were 24th in runs scored for the first four months ... added at the deadline Laureano, O'Hearn, and Fermin and for the last two months moved up to 11th but now will lose O'Hearn and Arraez.

In my mind need a legit starter type for the offense and also bolster the bench ... hopefully for the bench get lucky with signings like D.Peralta, Solano, Sheets, Iglesias ... good value for a low cost.

Quote from Randy Manese on October 2, 2025, 9:04 pm

The 1st CBT tier for the 2026 season is $244M.  Even with Suarez opting out and taking with him a 9.2M CBT, I found it almost impossible for the Padres to construct a competitive team next year and it keep at or below the first CBT tier.  It would help if Peralta opted out with his 4.125 CBT but that's a relatively small amount that doesn't even pay for exercising the club option on Laureano (6.5M).  What other things could happen that would give us more room?   After a disappointing close to the 2025 season, here are my musings for you to ponder.

The most impact to the CBT would be for Darvish to retire (18M CBT) but is that even a possibility?  Darvish has had a great career but clearly is not the pitcher he was even a year ago and it seems he is now only capable of playing half a season with diminished effectiveness - value of a 4th or 5th SP.   Will he hang around just for the money?  I don't think so.  Darvish has great respect for the Padres organization and I believe if he sees himself as more of a burden than an asset, he might retire.  Just tossing that out but I would not be surprised if he announces something one way or the other before the opening of free agency in November.

Despite his injury, Padres could still trade Adam for a prospect and try to recoup some of that estimated 6.5M CBT number or so he would get in arbitration.  Return would not be great but this is strictly a budget move and we do have some promising RH RP would take his place.  He would be a FA anyway after the 2026 season.

Finally, the only player on a long-term contract we would/could trade (but who probably has a limited number of teams he could be traded to) is Jake Cronenworth; also, there will be a limited number of teams willing to take on his contract.  I know this would leave us down yet another bat, however, if it clears space to land a top SP on a multi-year contract that would be the last and the most desperate move.  This would allow another 11.4M in CBT to be redirected to other priorities through 2030.

It will be an interesting off-season and looking forward to Preller rebuilding a competitive team for the 2026 season.  I just hope he has enough of a budget to get there; the next CBT tier is $264M.  Hope we get a budget that allows us to go over the $244M.