Quote from fenn68 on September 22, 2025, 5:19 am

We may be surprised on Padres resigning some of their FA ... even with what is perceived as a budget issue.

In 2025 Padres made the playoffs with a lot of key injuries and the core is returning (but getting older) and that could motivate the ownership to push the payroll again and be willing to cross the CBT to make another run in 2026. Have to be buoyed by record 2025 attendance and what should be an improvement in TV revenue under the new MLB arrangement coupled by a 2027 lockout then the unknown of the new CBA ... might make 2026 a good season to make a legit run and go all in.

King (for me) is the #1 target but if they could land one year deals at a "fair" salary might they pursue either Arraez and/or O'Hearn?  Padres need that 9th hitter for the line-up at a minimum and not sure (for the potential price) the rest of the FA market has much plus nothing to trade to get that quality.

 

Quote from Jeremy Hill on September 22, 2025, 7:32 am

Players that were traded in season are ineligible for the qualifying offer. I think it's extremely unlikely that they would give one to Arraez. I'm not sure if the fact that Suarez has a player option changes anything with regards to the qualifying offer. I think they would be pretty unlikely to give him one regardless. I think King is probably close to a lock even after losing so much of the season. I think he'll still be in demand and the team would happily take him back on the qualifying offer if he can't find a deal. Cease might be the one you have to give some thought too. Coming off of such a rough year I don't think there will be much of a market for him with a qualifying offer attached. If I was him or his agent I would be looking at what happened to Pivetta last year and seriously consider accepting the offer. Ultimately I think he gets one, but his performance has made it a lot more questionable.

Quote from fenn68 on September 22, 2025, 8:01 am

A QO on Cease may be the interesting one. $22MM is a big chunk ... and Cease's recent performance likely does not justify that on a multi-year deal even though pretty sure some other teams still like his "potential". Pivetta's creative deal most likely ends up as a 2 year / $13.5MM AAV once he opt's out after 2026. If that is the reference, Cease takes one year / $22MM (no idea how his agent Boras views this game). On the other hand, would the Padres want Cease back at $22MM especially if they re-sign King and with Musgrove back? If they had $22 MM "extra" to deploy ... could potentially get both Arraez and O'Hearn to re-sign as FA (or one with money left) believing filling out the offense will have better value.

Like any of the FA or not ... re-signing is a function of costs and alternatives to fill clear needs. Given Preller's historical approach of letting FA to test the market and giving them a Padres number to beat ... and not really chasing any one player ... might be the first to agree at the Padres' price returns.

Although I have been convinced Suarez will move on after turning down his $8MM player option (still think he will) and Preller not pursuing him ... might be changing my mind on Preller's view ... with some concern of Adam not being ready for the start of 2026 and the potential of Miller moving to SP. Should not get the $22MM QO but IF Preller can re-sign him (Preller seems to like him) on a one year deal at a more reasonable salary ... might fit.

A lot of moving parts and a lot of individuals having differing motivations.

Sort of dependent on the payroll space and how the other FA targets react (agree) to Padre offers.

Quote from Randy Manese on September 22, 2025, 10:23 am

If I were making the decisions on a limited payroll, I would first go after King on a multi-year deal (4 years @ 100M) and then Morejon, even though he is in his last year of arbitration this year.  The King deal would  bridge the expected last productive years of Machado, Bogaerts and Cronenworth and still keep the rotation steady as we add some of the high profile kids (Schoolcraft, Mayfield and Mendez) to a rotation that theoretically loses Cease (2025), Pivetta(2026), Musgrove(2027) and Darvish(2028) but possibly adds Miller through 2028.   I'm sure Preller will find an underpriced veteran SP or two during these years that the Padres can develop to fill out the rotation.

Morejon, to me, is integral to the continued success of the bullpen.  He is the only LH RP we have who is dominant and consistent now that he's overcome years of injury.  At 27, he is the longest tenured Padre and I believe really wants to stay with this team as long as he can.  Giving him the money somewhat comparable to the deal Suarez got could do it.  I would do 6/8/10M over the next 3 years with a player option for 8M for two years after that, so a total of 40M over 5 years.

We pay for this by not giving a QO to Cease (agree he would take it!), Arraez, Iglesias, Suarez (after he turns down his player option), Peralta (similar to Suarez) and declining the mutual options on Diaz and Hart.  Further, they would not pursue FA's Cortes, Johnson or O'Hearn, although the latter could still come into play.

Budget permitting, I would try to sign O'Hearn or extend Laureano.  Both these guys are relatively late bloomers but Laureano is the better overall player.  O'Hearn will be in his 32-33 age season in 2026 and has never shown big power or a high BA; however, lately he has become a very steady player and should be equal in worth to what Arraez was paid this year (14M).  He adds another LH bat to the lineup behind everyday players Merrill and Cronenworth and is a insurance should Sheets falter for any extended period of time; consider his defense at 1b better than Arraez but not GG worthy.  Harder to get Laureano, but one never knows.  He's played for 5 MLB teams since 2023 so maybe he wants to settle down and would take a 2-3 year extension.  Both these guys seem to like playing in San Diego.

Quote from fenn68 on September 22, 2025, 11:11 am

Agree on trying to extend Morejon ... he has finally matured into a strong LHP and is still young (26).

Not sure a Suarez deal will do it for him. Top RP are getting more these days but what may play into Morejon's thinking is a reasonable desire to become a SP (and then really earn big money ... potentially) ... he has the time at his age to establish that base and be a FA before age 30.

Side is that the Padres were considering converting him back to SP in ST ... so maybe they have that plan and with the innings he has amassed in 2025 could fit the conversion of Lugo. If they do ... maybe Preller searches for another LHRP. Likely will not convert both Miller or Morejon in 2026 ... so a strategic call by the organization as to filling SP vs closer / RP. Preller does have creative deals ... so an incentive deal based on innings / starts with player opt outs triggered by lack of starts?

Side: agree on King re-sign (but no guarantee) and Cease going ... Musgrove returning ... giving some flexibility in 2026. Pivetta is out after 2026 but bet they re-sign Musgrove even in his mid-30s (maybe short deal) after 2027. All that gives some time for the low level prospects to arrive and in the interim some strategic calls on Miller and Morejon.

Side2 ... Preller always seems to end up with plus RP ... pretty sure some in the system we have yet to recognize ... and they could keep the pen strong and free up Miller / Morejon to start. Rodriguez and Hawkins come to mind to support Estrada / Morgan in the future. LHRP is an issue.

Quote from BoosterSD on September 26, 2025, 7:00 am

Reading through MLBTR this morning and one item caught my eye. Alex Manoah being placed on waivers. He has had a hard time bouncing back from TJ surgery and seems like just the candidate for Niebla to polish up and make good again.

He was only $2.2M this season and is under control through 2027.

Quote from fenn68 on September 26, 2025, 8:35 am

Quote from BoosterSD on September 26, 2025, 7:00 am

Reading through MLBTR this morning and one item caught my eye. Alex Manoah being placed on waivers. He has had a hard time bouncing back from TJ surgery and seems like just the candidate for Niebla to polish up and make good again.

He was only $2.2M this season and is under control through 2027.

Given past success ... and control at a very low cost ... why would TOR DFA him? He still as a minor league option for 2026 (I think). TOR has to need pitching in 2026.

Good chance there will multiple claims ... turning the waiver claim into a trade scenario. IF not claimed not sure on TOR control and IF he cleared waivers do they still control him off the 40 man rather than him becoming a FA.

$2.2 MM / 40 man roster slot is not a lot for most teams ... but only if healthy (and projected to be healthy) ... right now given TOR action that has to be a real concern.

 

Quote from fenn68 on September 26, 2025, 12:35 pm

Quote from fenn68 on September 26, 2025, 8:35 am

Quote from BoosterSD on September 26, 2025, 7:00 am

Reading through MLBTR this morning and one item caught my eye. Alex Manoah being placed on waivers. He has had a hard time bouncing back from TJ surgery and seems like just the candidate for Niebla to polish up and make good again.

He was only $2.2M this season and is under control through 2027.

Given past success ... and control at a very low cost ... why would TOR DFA him? He still as a minor league option for 2026 (I think). TOR has to need pitching in 2026.

Good chance there will multiple claims ... turning the waiver claim into a trade scenario. IF not claimed not sure on TOR control and IF he cleared waivers do they still control him off the 40 man rather than him becoming a FA.

$2.2 MM / 40 man roster slot is not a lot for most teams ... but only if healthy (and projected to be healthy) ... right now given TOR action that has to be a real concern.

 

Oops! Forgot we past the trade deadline ... so a waiver claim goes to the team with the worst record that puts in a claim.

The Braves have claimed right-hander Alek Manoah off waivers from the Blue Jays, according to announcements from both clubs. Toronto designated him for assignment earlier this week.

That makes it somewhat surprising that a few clubs passed on Manoah. Waivers go in reverse order of the standings and are not league specific. With Atlanta winning the claim, it can be concluded that the Rockies, White Sox, Nationals, Twins, Pirates and Angels all passed.

Quote from fenn68 on September 29, 2025, 12:48 pm

While waiting today for the playoffs tomorrow ... debating a bit on who (if anyone) the Padres make a QO. The QO is around $22MM and, need to take into consideration the potential of a 2027 lockout where the players will not get paid. So if I am a player who is not getting a long term big money deal ... one year $22MM is great security vs no pay in 2027. Consider:

1. Arraez (28) ... coming off his worst year but prior to 2025 his 3-year wRC+ was 123 and had a 7.2 WAR (2.4 avg). If you buy into the $8MM / 1 WAR metric ... his agent should be arguing for an AAV around $20MM on a multi-year. However, given his 2025 and what may be a limit market for his skill set as a 1B/DH, does he have a market at that level. $22MM locked in may look very good to him and could accept. He made $14MM in 2025.
2. O'Hearn (32) ... coming off his best year but prior to 2025 his 3 year wRC+ was 111 and had a 2.7 WAR (0.9 avg). His agent will push his 2025 (127/3.1) but doubt any teams will consider him a $24MM player. History would put him more in the $8- 10 MM range ... so $22MM could also look very good to him. Making $8MM this year.

If the payroll is limited and the #1 priority is King (s/b in the $20-25MM /4 year range) ... big risk to offer QO to either Arraez or O'Hearn lest they accept.

Now if no QO ... is there an opportunity (at a more reasonable cost) re-signing either Arraez or O'Hearn. Padres do need a 9th bat and not getting one for free from anywhere (FA or trade).

What do you think the player / agent would sign for? How much is the max Preller would go?

_______________________

Also note that because the Padres exceeded the CBT again in 2025 ... the Comp Picks are, I think, way down after the 4th round ... less value.