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2026 Padres Season
#61 · October 3, 2025, 2:57 am
After two consecutive playoffs seasons, a looming lockout in 2027, unknown of CBT rules under the new CBA, and an aging Machado, Bogaerts, Musgrove, Cronewnwoth ... think the Padres will keep their objective to build a contender and exceed the CBT again in 2026 (maybe wishful thinking on my part) ... not in the extreme but as this year in that $20MM zone. The other (and maybe the first key) is CASH which also will remain high with major built in increases for Machado and Pivetta and arbitration increases for the likes of Adam and Morejon but maybe less of hurdle given the 2025 record attendance and whatever comes out of the new TV arrangement with MLB.
Most reporting indicates Preller (and ownership) think in both a one year and five year horizons ... and that my shape some of their calls. From a CASH view we are entering a period of very large increases for Machado and Tatis ... Merrill will start to really build on long term deals. In that window players such as Miller, Fermin, Sheets, Estrada, and even Vasquez will start earning big money. With that looming ... might limit how Preller approaches big money long term deals.
Hard to see with this roster Preller trading any of the larger contracts for just salary relief (not really going to get any impact in return) and take that money and find an upgraded replacement given nothing to rely on is coming from the minors and quality FA are just expensive.
As I suggested before ... King is the pivotal FA. Likely in the $20-22MM / 4 year range with the CBT and "creative" with the cash flow to help the team. Sign King and gives Preller better (cost effective) options in structuring the SP and RP. Just not going to find multiple quality (low cost) SP on the FA market (or in trade).
If King is signed ... more of a roll the dice on offensive upgrades scouring the margins on ML/Mil deals trying to uncover the next Sheets, Solano, D.Peralta and the like ... at least into ST. Preller likes end of ST deals plus with King and the other returnees the core SHOULD sit as a contender during the season and set up another decision point at that trade deadline. Basically without a lot of payroll flexibility and very limited trade chips ... wait to make bigger moves as late as possible when the add may be cheaper (eg two month rentals) and Preller "knows" the late season critical needs.
If King is not signed ... going to be hard to find an effective SP (at lower cost) ... setting up a weak SP rotation ... and that is a problem.
#62 · October 3, 2025, 3:09 am
Although not impossible, hard to see Darvish (who is still healthy and loves to play baseball) retiring and giving up three more years at $16 - 15 - 15MM. If he was not healthy ... maybe with the Padres giving him some front office deal to cushion the loss of pay.
Over pay for what is now a #4-5 level SP ... sure ... but looking at the in house alternatives and he is still better than Sears / Waldron and ???? Even if they sign King ... Pivetta - King - Musgrove - Vasquez - ????? (and expect Pivetta to opt out after 2026).
#63 · October 3, 2025, 3:24 am
To be clear this is very unlikely but for a "team upgrade" would Preller put Pivetta on the trade block coming off his best season every and clearly a top of the rotation arm.
Why: 1) his pay in 2026 jumps up $18MM cash; 2) he will opt out after 2026 as his pay will drop from $20.5MM to $14MM; 3) he should yield a potential quality return with at least one player to fill current upgrade needs; 4) frees up $18MM for additional upgrade moves.
Sign King on a longer term deal for stability and trade Pivetta for upgrades at multiple spots (from trade and available payroll flexibility) and COULD the net yield a stronger 2026 roster ... especially on offense?
Note that sequence likely would result in Miller becoming a starter to replace Pivetta and giving end of game RP to Morejon - Adam - Estrada - Morgan or some unknown that Preller always seems to find.
If thinking "team" and longer term ... might make sense with the right trade return and Preller's view of the FA market.
#64 · October 3, 2025, 10:26 am
https://www.mlb.com/news/jarred-kelenic-becomes-free-agent-after-being-outrighted-by-braves
Mr. P....you see anything in this kid that Victor Rodriquez could find? A la Gavin Sheets?
Certainly could be had cheap.
#65 · October 3, 2025, 11:36 am
Quote from WindsorUK on October 3, 2025, 10:26 amhttps://www.mlb.com/news/jarred-kelenic-becomes-free-agent-after-being-outrighted-by-braves
Mr. P....you see anything in this kid that Victor Rodriquez could find? A la Gavin Sheets?
Certainly could be had cheap.
He could be a cheap option for the 4th OFer, does not have to do much to be better than Johnson at the plate. Just depends on if he can man CF as well as Johnson for back up to Merrill. One advantage Johnson has over Kelenic is that he is a SH.
#66 · October 3, 2025, 11:36 am
For next season, do we Sheets as the 1B or DH?
#67 · October 3, 2025, 12:53 pm
Quote from BoosterSD on October 3, 2025, 11:36 amFor next season, do we Sheets as the 1B or DH?
Yes. Which one probably depends on who they add to fill out 26 man roster.
If they land a legit 1B (defensively) Sheets is the DH but if their 9th bat is more suited for DH or is a more versatile OF/INF Sheets goes to 1B. In the latter case, DH may be a rotational slot resting the regulars. Doubt they make a move that puts Cronenworth on 1B ... that would require adding a major 2B (and not really one around if offense is the objective).
#68 · October 3, 2025, 1:04 pm
Quote from BoosterSD on October 3, 2025, 11:36 amQuote from WindsorUK on October 3, 2025, 10:26 amhttps://www.mlb.com/news/jarred-kelenic-becomes-free-agent-after-being-outrighted-by-braves
Mr. P....you see anything in this kid that Victor Rodriquez could find? A la Gavin Sheets?
Certainly could be had cheap.
He could be a cheap option for the 4th OFer, does not have to do much to be better than Johnson at the plate. Just depends on if he can man CF as well as Johnson for back up to Merrill. One advantage Johnson has over Kelenic is that he is a SH.
Would be a decent add on the cheap given the position players on the 26 man. Was one of the top prospects in MLB as late as 2021 but has struggled at the ML level (now 26). Had one good season in SEA a few years back but since looks more like a AAAA player. Still maybe a better option than Ornelas.
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Swing and Miss:A major weakness for Kelenic has been a high strikeout rate and a significant struggle with swing-and-miss, especially against breaking and off-speed pitches.
He has played a lot of CF in both the ML and MiL and has (had) the speed and arm to handle it. Don't know about now.
The drawback given the current roster is that he is a LHH and if anything Padres need RHH. Yet, with the lack of position players ... could keep both Johnson and Kelenic.
#69 · October 3, 2025, 5:11 pm
OK with Kelenic being LHH. In the OF that would put Tatis and Laureano as RHH, Merrill and Kelenic as LHH, and Johnson a SH. Thats a good balance, although the drop off in production from Merrill to Kelenic and Johnson is drastic.
#70 · October 3, 2025, 6:29 pm
on the Chris & Gwynn show (97.3) they indicated that Manny would like to have O'Hearn back ... Manny has sway with Preller so maybe that becomes more likely ... LHH 1B / Sheets LHH DH?
On the other hand saw a comment from Arraez that indicates he believes this is the end for him in SD.
If they bring back O'Hearn ... LHH starters in Merrill, O'Hearn, Sheets, and Cronewnwoth would scream for some quality RHH on the bench.