Quote from fenn68 on June 19, 2026, 1:56 pm

Quote from WindsorUK on June 19, 2026, 1:08 pm

Preller should be looking for takers for Marrinaccio, Peralta, Matsui, and Adam. I'm sure all 4 could bring something of value, even if they are a few years down the road.

Something yes ... can debate how much value beyond upside A ball players.

For Preller, has to wait until the Padres fall out of any hope of a wild card ... and strange as it is they are in a wild card slot now. Padres have nothing of current quality in the minors to replace them (clearly not better options).

Should note that all four are better than average RP (ERA) and almost everyone would want to improve their pens for the stretch. We may get frustrated at time that they are not perfect but RP across the league no depth and in many cases really really bad.

However if they fall out before the trade deadline I would clean house even if only Adam is in his last control year ... especially considering the potential for most of 2027 being lost to a lockout ... these four are not young and have to question their projections for 2028.

At this point have to work on moving the other FA to be ... Morejon should yield a good prospect ... Buehler might get a decent prospect ... who knows about the survivor of the Canning - Giolito - Marquez battle. France and Andujar also might have some small appeal.

If Preller wants to be a bit more aggressive ... thinking a portion of 2027 will be lost ... deal Sheets who is only controlled thru 2027. Then up the anti even more ... deal King who would have good appeal (he has an opt out but can stay for $28MM ... too much).

With a lockout coming (basically making 2027 a question) ... one of the oldest teams ... the controlled core underperforming ... IF they fall out of contention it might be the time to "clean house" of all the older types they can (get what they can in terms of prospects) ... (hate to say it) go for the rebuild even with a poor near term set of prospects.

Of course all that is only IF they fall out ... in 2026 given how the other wild card contenders are playing (equally poorly) ... don't rule out buying at the deadline.

 

 

Quote from WindsorUK on June 19, 2026, 3:48 pm

Even if we trade all 4 of the guys I mentioned, we still have plenty of arms to cover their innings. Morgan, Rodriguez, Waldron just to name a few.

I'm re-signing Morejon. He's too good. And I'd like to re-sign Buehler.

As for a rebuild, not really necessary. We have 5 guys that are going nowhere for the next 5 years. And they are supposed to be our best players.

AJ will just have to restock the minors.

 

Quote from fenn68 on June 20, 2026, 5:26 am

In my battle of optimist vs pessimist ... the pessimist is winning after 74 games.

Before the season I saw a starting offense that in 2025 had 8 of the 9 2026 starters hitting an above average wRC+ (only Fermin was below), a relief corp that was elite, and a starting staff that would tread water with Pivetta, King, Musgrove, Vasquez, plus one. Opps!

First give the optimist a last hurrah. Padres' defense is quite good with the fewest errors of any team this season and the best fielding percentage. Relief pitching is producing. YTD 3.03 ERA / 1.22 WHIP, last 30 days 2.45 ERA (2nd in MLB) / 1.24 WHIP (8th in MLB). MLB average 4.10 ERA / 1.34 WHIP.

Enter the pessimist.

The historically bad offense continues. Team YTD slash line is 219/292/364 and in the past 30 days 216(last in MLB)/291(29th)/360(28th). No improvement. MLB YTD average is 243/320/400.

Time to dump on the SP that has fallen precipitously .... keep in mind the YTD average in MLB for SP is 4.27 ERA / 1.29 WHIP. For the year the Padres are slightly worse 4.48 ERA / 1.38 WHIP but were "average" before the last 30 days when the wheels fell off .. 5.17 ERA / 1.59 WHIP!

Last 30 days (5 appearances each) SP ERA:

7.04 ... Vasquez (1-3)

6.41 ... King (0-4)

5.19 ... Canning (1-3)

4.35 ... Giolito (1-2)

2.77 ... Buehler (1-1)

So, historically bad offense now combined way below average SP renders an elite bullpen useless as they fall behind early and cannot score to catch-up. With ATL and LAD coming soon, on the verge of disaster.

 

Quote from fenn68 on June 20, 2026, 2:42 pm

I don't think Roster Resource has any inside info ... and Marquez does not have to come off the IL for another 2 weeks BUT on their projected starters they have Marquez starting for the Padres next Tuesday (replacing Canning).

They have been wrong before but sure is an odd projection based on ?

Quote from MrPadre19 on June 20, 2026, 3:14 pm

I don’t think I can do this 88 more times.

I’m quite possibly the most optimistic Padre fan in America and I’m very close to checking out.
The offense,or more precisely the lack of offense,is ruining this season.

Losing I can handle…..but our offense makes the games un watchable.

 

 

 

Quote from fenn68 on June 21, 2026, 11:02 am

Given how poorly Vasquez has been the last month (really getting hit hard) ... maybe to get Marquez up they put Vasquez in the IL with "?" (he has no minor league options).

Maybe a break will get his body and then command back in form. Plus give a bit more time to determine the survivors among Giolito, Canning, and Marquez before having to deal with the return of Waldron.

Hopefully they can sort these guys by the All-Star break to have the better of the options retained for the second half ... and help them decide on the need for an add at the trade deadline .... or build some cashe for a sell.

Quote from fenn68 on June 24, 2026, 1:48 pm

Time for some optimism. Padres are still on the cusp of a playoff slot ... and seem to be heating up offensively while somehow still being effective pitching vs the rest of the NL.

Consider:

Pitching ... YTD the Padres ERA sits #4 in the NL behind the three Division Leaders (MILW, ATL, LAD) ... so the best staff of the Wild Card contenders. What have the done lately ... looking at the last 15 days and they are still #4 in ERA. Given the pain we are suffering from Canning, Giolito, and Vasquez hard to believe still that effective. Don't over estimate the quality of the other teams.

Offense ... YTD the Padres have been historically bad in BA/OBP/SLG and stayed in contention. Signs of the core hitting recently ... Tatis (been All-Star level minus HR), Machado and Merrill on their best runs and Bogaerts although not hitting taking a lot of walks and has a high OBP. Padres have move up form the bottom in the last 15 days to the middle of the pack and actually scored some runs!

The 7-5 in that period ties for the 4th most wins. So, if the hitting continues to heat up (move to  their past levels) and the smoke and mirrors of the pitching holds ... and considering the shortcomings of the other contenders ... a strong run for the playoffs seems likely. Post All-Star game is considered "easier" than the current run of opponents.

Setting up for the Padres to be buyers (or at least try) at the trade deadline (or sooner). Most reports I have heard is that Preller will be allowed to add payroll. If so (assuming any quality is out there to add) might target rentals with big contracts and taking the full contract might lessen the need for using top prospects (if others really think the Padres have top prospects other than Salas). For me, would be focused on pitching given the uncertainty of Canning, Giolito, Marquez, Vasquez. et. al. If they make the playoffs need a strong third SP beyond the upside of King and Buehler. Pivetta is not likely to convince anyone he is back and effective until after the trade deadline.

Quote from MrPadre19 on June 24, 2026, 3:04 pm

If we trade prospects for pitching it will be costly because I don’t see AJ trading for an arm that we won’t control after 2026.

Our rotation is a huge question mark right now….but it will only be worse next year if we  don’t address it somehow

I don’t see us going after a Skubal type for this reason plus the fact our offense is also in question.
I would also try to extend Buehler now or at least before the end of the season.

He may not be interested but I’d at least make the effort

 

 

Quote from fenn68 on June 24, 2026, 3:48 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on June 24, 2026, 3:04 pm

If we trade prospects for pitching it will be costly because I don’t see AJ trading for an arm that we won’t control after 2026.

Our rotation is a huge question mark right now….but it will only be worse next year if we  don’t address it somehow

I don’t see us going after a Skubal type for this reason plus the fact our offense is also in question.
I would also try to extend Buehler now or at least before the end of the season.

He may not be interested but I’d at least make the effort

 

 

Clearly this trade deadline will be more difficult to figure out given:

1. the multiple needs to win in 2026 and few trade chips (top prospects) but apparently some payroll flexibility (at least for this year)
2. at this point some real question who will be available ... good players that is ... with so many teams still in a realistic shot at a playoff slot maybe not a lot of sellers
3. which other teams are interested in the same players and can the Padres out bid them?

Then factor in:

1. the value of a non-rental player IF there is a lockout in 2027
2. how much payroll flexibility is there going forward ... with built in contract increases and ARB decisions bringing back this team could already increase the payroll without any new adds
3. will the new CBA have a salary cap / new penalties for an excessive payroll
4. With no major internal options (especially pitching) and not sure who returns for the pitching staff ... need to keep a lot of powder dry to add good pitching for coming seasons (clearly more than one arm). (leads me to avoid any add that is a long term commitment for a position player and rely on Tatis - Machado - Merrill - Bogaerts as the base with low cost support).

Besides trying to convince Buehler to extend ... might need to work with King and Pivetta on extensions that buy out their opt outs after 2026 and 2027. It is possible that if those opt outs are exercised the Padres could enter next season with Vasquez, an injured Musgrove, Sears, ?????.

Tough balance of winning now (maybe) vs setting up a credible team going forward (as opposed to the chance of total collapse).