Quote from fenn68 on August 4, 2025, 4:08 am

50 games to play ... Padres are in a good position although a lot can happen with a hot or cold streak altering standings.

As we stand Padres are in the 3rd WC slot ... and they have addressed and upgraded their major weaknesses ... so SHOULD be as good or better than recent performance. Consider the past 30 days for the Padres and other key teams for playoff positioning:

12-11 ... NYM ... 2nd WC

15-10 ... SD ... 3rd WC

12-12 ... CINN ... first out of WC

The key takeaway is that net movement is one or two games in a month among good teams ... Padres have a very good lead over CINN and that should give them a safe position to make the Playoffs. On the other hand, they are only one game behind the METS and that is well within a takeover.

However, now consider:

9 - 14 ... LAD ... NL West leader ... with the Padres only 3 games behind the LAD (plus a lot of head to head games) the NL West is clearly in sight.

A hot (or just not cold) Padre team has a real chance of winning the NL West and have a better record than the winner of the NL East and end up with first round bye. Would be tougher to pass MILW for the best NL record.

 

Quote from WindsorUK on August 4, 2025, 5:53 am

Seeing Big Blue falter the past month or so leads me to believe, that yes, we could overtake those clowns.

I'm still not convinced we're WS Champs material but we are capable of finally pulling the Duds off their pedestal and grabbing the West.

Health is the key factor going forward for both clubs.

Quote from MrPadre19 on August 4, 2025, 7:22 am

Health biggest concern because completely out of anyone hands.

If Cease/King/Pivetta stay healthy...along with Suarez/Miller/Morejon/Adam......I like our chances.

Of course we need to bats to stay healthy also....but in the playoffs it's all about the pitching.

Would love to see more Starters going 6+ innings though.

 

Quote from brent wolff on August 5, 2025, 12:25 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on August 4, 2025, 7:22 am

Health biggest concern because completely out of anyone hands.

If Cease/King/Pivetta stay healthy...along with Suarez/Miller/Morejon/Adam......I like our chances.

Of course we need to bats to stay healthy also....but in the playoffs it's all about the pitching.

Would love to see more Starters going 6+ innings though.

 

I'd add both Darvish & Estrada to that list of P's needed to remain healthy.

Quote from MrPadre19 on August 5, 2025, 1:45 pm

Quote from brent wolff on August 5, 2025, 12:25 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on August 4, 2025, 7:22 am

Health biggest concern because completely out of anyone hands.

If Cease/King/Pivetta stay healthy...along with Suarez/Miller/Morejon/Adam......I like our chances.

Of course we need to bats to stay healthy also....but in the playoffs it's all about the pitching.

Would love to see more Starters going 6+ innings though.

 

I'd add both Darvish & Estrada to that list of P's needed to remain healthy.

For sure.

Once we reach the playoffs if we have healthy and productive King/Cease/Pivetta/Darvish ......with our bullpen....I like our chances against anyone.

Against good teams like LA,Phi,NYM etc you're not gonna shut them out 3 games in a row...but I believe our guys can hold them to a manageable number of runs.....just need the offense to do just enough.

Philly is the team that worries me the most.

Hopefully we don't get them until the NLCS and/or someone else knocks them out early

 

Quote from fenn68 on August 6, 2025, 4:05 am

Worried may not be the right term but Tatis' hot / cold streaks could be a problem down the stretch / playoffs.

Overall he is elite ... his defense is outstanding and is year to date a 127 wRC+ hitter. However, that net is a product of great Apr/May and July offsetting bad May (.184 BA / 75 wRC+) and so far a very bad August (.095 BA / 37 wRC+) plus SLG stats are way down. Also, with the need for the Padres to hit better vs LHP ... Tatis has a poor slash line of 219/348/316, gets walks but no BA/SLG.

No idea if the wins generated by the hot spells compensates for the losses from the cold spells ... or the drivers of those spells ... but the extreme nature of those streaks could be a problem in a short playoff series.

Given the "length" of this line-up and the pitching ... probably would be better off if Tatis (or any player) played to the overall line and not go extreme hot / cold.

Quote from MrPadre19 on August 6, 2025, 5:52 am

Quote from fenn68 on August 6, 2025, 4:05 am

Worried may not be the right term but Tatis' hot / cold streaks could be a problem down the stretch / playoffs.

Overall he is elite ... his defense is outstanding and is year to date a 127 wRC+ hitter. However, that net is a product of great Apr/May and July offsetting bad May (.184 BA / 75 wRC+) and so far a very bad August (.095 BA / 37 wRC+) plus SLG stats are way down. Also, with the need for the Padres to hit better vs LHP ... Tatis has a poor slash line of 219/348/316, gets walks but no BA/SLG.

No idea if the wins generated by the hot spells compensates for the losses from the cold spells ... or the drivers of those spells ... but the extreme nature of those streaks could be a problem in a short playoff series.

Given the "length" of this line-up and the pitching ... probably would be better off if Tatis (or any player) played to the overall line and not go extreme hot / cold.

I would have been more worried about Tatis if this happened a couple years ago...or even last year,but this lineup is deep enough he doesn't have to carry it like he did.

Would love he snap out of it soon though....although I love his Walks....esp. leading off a game.

 

Quote from fenn68 on August 6, 2025, 9:37 am

Peralta had a really poor May (11 ER in 13 innings) and for many that locked him in as a liability in the pen.

He has seemed better recently, so checking his performance other than May had he has a excellent 1.42 ERA (7 ER in 44.1 innings). Plus given how poorly Matsui has been, Peralta becomes a major asset as a early LHRP before they have to use Morejon.

At age 34, this performance may just elevate the odds of Peralta opting out after the season ... has two player option years and a bit over $4MM per year. Not likely to get a worse deal as a FA and maybe better.

Quote from Jeremy Hill on August 6, 2025, 10:55 am

Peralta was coming off of a pretty strong 3 year run when we signed him. This was the best deal he could get then. There generally isn't much of a market for middle relievers. I don't think he's done much to change his market 2 years later. He has pitched pretty well overall this year. Maybe that does make it a consideration. If I was him I think I would stick with the guaranteed money though. I think he's more likely to be left out in the cold than he is to find a significantly better deal.