Quote from fenn68 on June 23, 2025, 6:40 am

Alternatives ... cost in dollars ... cost in prospects ... mind set of CWS ... other suitors make it hard to construct a trade scenario for a player who is really a rental with about $8MM remaining in 2025 but only a sub-.200 hitter.

Can't see any team exercising a $20 MM option for 2026 given his past two seasons ... so a FA over the winter and just unclear what he could command as a FA or how many interested teams.

He is a tough costing case now and in the future.

---

I guess at this point, CWS is not getting impressive offers (at least to their objectives) so just wait to the deadline to see if more (or more desperate) suitors arrive. At that point he would only be owed about $4MM ... so eating some may not make sense vs getting a better prospect ... but a .200 hitting rental will not command much.

In absence of any credible alternatives for Padres ... and given what they currently have ... he would be worth a marginal prospect (while taking the contract) ... even if not hitting for AVG/OBP he does have some power, defense, and base stealing skills.

Preller is probably OK with that timeline giving him time to see if he can land a more "certain" upgrade option for LF.

Quote from fenn68 on June 24, 2025, 9:49 am

Read some speculative thoughts on the Padres trade deadline moves:

1. Preller could be both a buyer and seller. On the seller side ... depending on the healthy returns of Darvish and King ... could trade Cease for some young controllable players (writer suggested pitching).
2. The obvious an upgrade in LF but the writer suggested options ... Robert (CWS) as has been tossed around but added Ward (RHH / LAA) controllable for 2026 via ARB (Padre need), $7.8MM this year (so about $4MM hit this year)... Jesus Sanchez (LHH / MIA) controllable for 2026-27 via ARB, $4.5MM this year (so about $2.3MM hit this year). None are game changers ... basically "average" but considering what the Padres have ... major upgrades.
3. Trade with ATL for C Sean Murphy ... he has been supplanted by Baldwin as the #1 ATL C and is controlled for three more years at $15MM per year. Slipped a bit recently in his offensive production with ATL but is a much better defense catcher than either Diaz or Maldonado (both should be FA after the season) plus is still a substantially better hitter than either. Expensive (pay and probably in trade chips) but quality catchers are hard to find ... Shildt wants defensive plus catchers ... hard to rely on Valenzuela as the #1 in 2026 and no idea when Salas emerges. So, Murphy (only 30) would improve catching offense and defense with stability for 2026-28.

Interesting different thoughts ... not sure the Padres have the trade chips (that they are willing to trade) to do some of these but maybe dealing Cease for prospects would free up some trade chips or are just flipped (3 team deal?)

Quote from ultratvfan on June 24, 2025, 1:26 pm

Maldonado is retiring after 2025 season.

https://www.si.com/mlb/padres/san-diego-padres-news/padres-veteran-to-retire-after-2025-season

Quote from fenn68 on June 25, 2025, 4:31 pm

After watching Pivetta today and looking at the other SP performances would Preller consider trading Cease (likely for a prospect) either for the future or to flip (or free up another player) in a trade for a 2025 need?

SP is in high demand ... and the reputation of Cease makes him a highly sought add. Cease will not resign with SD (money and Boras is the agent) so a legit prospect in a return will be better than a Comp Pick.

First, Padres have to be confident King, Darvish, and Bergert are back and effective before the trade deadline but if they are the SP would still be strong (maybe stronger) even without Cease. Consider 2025 ERA:

2.59 ... King (10 starts)

2.67 ... Bergert (5 starts)

3.31 ... Darvish in 2024 (16 starts)

3.36 ... Pivetta (16 starts)

3.60 ... Vasquez (16 starts)

---

3.95 ... Kolek

---

4.43 ... Cease

Take some risk on healthy SP but if a deal somehow bolsters LF / RHH now and maybe going forward the Padres may be better off. Just a thought.

 

Quote from WindsorUK on June 25, 2025, 7:08 pm

If AJ Preller wants to build a team to win a WS as early as 2026( not happening this year) he will ABSOLUTELY look to move Cease( as well as Arraez and Suarez).

SP is a 100% need for ALL legitimate title contenders. If a team REALLY thinks it has a chance at the title, they will part with MLB ready talent. And if you can package any of our FA's together, maybe even a bigger haul of talent ready to compete in 2026.

If Cease, Suarez, Arraez are all here after the deadline, I will be highly disappointed. No more getting excited about comp picks.

Quote from fenn68 on June 27, 2025, 10:21 am

Would Preller consider a signing of JD Martinez who apparently is willing to play in 2025 ... he reportedly is keeping in shape and wants a "guaranteed" contract ... but just for 1/2 season (unknown on the money).

Preller has a pretty good relationship with Boras his agent ... he wants to be in a playoff run and the Padres are in a Wild Card slot.

Would think a declining Martinez provides more offense (especially vs LHP) than any of the current LF/DH choices for the Padres. IF the Padres can live with Sheets in LF (clearly been playing there a lot ... and OK) then Martinez can settle in as the DH (about all he can do these days).

Have to factor in how Shildt does use the DH as a "rest day" for some regulars while keeping their bat in the line-up. If Martinez locks up the DH ... maybe the "rest day" for some becomes a full off day ... and that COULD be better for some as the season wears on (and temps get high).

The contract would be the big unknown but we really don't have a fix on any legit trade moves (and what they would cost via contract plus the cost in prospects). If the contract demand is not obscene ... could be a very good gamble. Knowing Preller and Boras ... they could construct a very "creative" contract with incentives, options, and buyouts.

Quote from fenn68 on June 28, 2025, 11:36 am

I resurrect Bryan Reynolds (PITT) as a trade target for LF. He is having an "off year" ... 236/304/385 with a wRC+ of 89 BUT his 2023-25 stats are better at 263/331/440 with a wRC+ of 109.

Why a fit for the Padres ... current LF (in aggregate) is hitting 226/288/335 with a wRC+ of 79 (plus that includes some Sheets work in LF). Basically a bad 2025 Reynolds is an upgrade for the Padres. Then consider the Padres have no quality LF prospect coming in the next 3+ years. Adding Reynolds would solve LF for the next 5 years (the length of his contract).

Why Pirates would move him ... money. PITT is a cash poor team at they rank 26th in attendance at about 18,000 per home game (vs SD at over 41,000 per home game). Reynolds' $15MM+/- AAV for the next five years is not a good fit for them when you consider they are a very bad team that has little chance of continuing in the NL Central for years with the likes of Cubs, Brewers, Reds, and Cards. Save money ... get prospects for the future.

With the FA of Arraez, King, Cease, Suarez, and the dropping of Hosmer's money ... Padres drop well under the luxury tax so the money is available.

If the Pirates are motivated to sell (money) ... and if limited buyers since most are targeting SP/RP ... could Preller get a "good deal" by taking the contract and using a bundle of "mid-range prospects"? Keep in mind that at age 30 there is a risk of Reynolds' off season is the start of a decline ... but how much and what are the alternatives IF winning / playoffs are the objective for 2025 and 2026?

 

Quote from fenn68 on June 30, 2025, 5:29 am

Most acknowledge that Padres need more offense out of the bottom of the order and even some more from the core 6 but maybe the 2nd half concern should be more.

Using OPS looked at the Padres team OPS (league average is .714). Padres at Home is .708 (19th) and Away is .684 (21st). Not surprised it is low but not that low vs the league considering most of the core 6 are above average. Makes a bigger focus on the "others". Overall, the Padres' .694 sits at #23.

But added to the wall of worry is the pitching. Using ERA (league average is 4.07) the Padres at Home is at 2.94 (with a 25-14 record) and that is #4 in MLB. Outstanding. However, AWAY the Padres are at 4.30 (with a 20-24 record) and that is #21 in MLB. Terrible and considering Kolek's AWAY ERA in 8 starts is a brilliant 2.08 the rest of the pitching is even worse. Overall the Padres' 3.64 is still a strong sitting 8th.

Old adage is win at home (Padres doing that) and play .500 on the road and will make the playoffs. Padres are winning at home but struggling on the road. Good news they are right in the playoff hunt ... more home games than road games in the 2nd half ... Padres have one of the easiest schedules (based on current records of opponents) for the remainder of the season.

So even with the team shortcomings ... in a good position to make the playoffs even without upgrades ... not so sure about success in the playoffs. Still upgrades would be welcome.

Quote from fenn68 on June 30, 2025, 5:51 am

Should add the poster child for the Home/Away issue is Cease:

H: 8 starts ... 2.76 ERA

A: 9 starts ... 6.31 ERA

Might make a tough call from Preller when (if) Darvish, King, and Bergert all return (effectively) from the IL before the trade deadline.

I know "never too much pitching" but given the offensive struggles if they could use a rental such as Cease (replaced by Darvish) to get an offensive boost have to consider that option. Go down the stretch with Darvish, King, Pivetta, Vasquez, and Kolek ... withe Bergert lurking if needed as the #6 SP?