Quote from fenn68 on January 1, 2026, 7:55 am

HAPPY NEW YEAR!

This weekend will give us resolution of the futures (an if Padres) of Imai, Takahashi, and Okamoto. Imai and Takahashi will be resolved by 2 PM (San Diego Time) tomorrow ... Okamoto by Sunday.

With the lower than projected signing cost for Murakami and the seeming less enthusiastic pursuit of any of these three ... maybe there is a realistic chance the Padres land one (or more?). As with everyone Preller is "interested". Creative contracts abound.

Since he is fits Padres need for a RHH slugger ... Okamoto seems a logical priority and his earlier projection of 3 years / $48MM may be high ... so a chance.

Not connected with Imai recently but could there be a surprise by Preller going for him vs Okamoto? Much earlier Padres were linked (well before signing King). Originally had a very big contract projected but recently he is being looked as a #3 SP on a good team and did have an injury last season. That may lower his bargaining power. Plus he has been quoted as wanting to be on a contender (but not a Dodger). Boras is his agent.

Preller (if he can sign only one) ... might see signing a #3 SP (bumps Sears or Waldron or Hart out of #5) has more value over a 162 game slate than another bat (with some risk coming over from Japan). Padres are thin on SP depth (injury could be a big problem) plus Pivetta will go FA after the season and maybe even King opts out ... so helps the future. If he sees the current 1-9 batting order workable with only some minor low cost adds ... priorities may be different.

One advantage is the Imai decision is two days before Okamoto's, so if he fails on Imai he can shift his resource to Okamoto.

Takahashi ... just not familiar with him. What I have read he is more a control pitcher (low 90s FB) that projects maybe a #4-5 arm. Given the Padres need for pitching depth ... he might be a relatively low cost add to the bottom of the rotation.

Scouting is key on any of these three ... along with some quality projection for the ML. If the Padres sign any of them ... resets the options for Preller in trading off the current roster as well as trade/FA targets.

Of course the wild card is payroll ... been assuming they are at (near) the top suggesting adds will require deletes but (outside chance) considering the team is up for sale ... baring any league debt service issues ... the may go up a bit more for that one last hurrah as owners and win it all for Peter Siedler's memory. If a deal is close (and depending on the new owner) ... they may get an OK from the new owner with minimal issue on the sale price.

New year ... new optimism.

Quote from fenn68 on January 1, 2026, 10:07 am

One down ... two to go:

The Astros and right-hander Tatsuya Imai are in agreement on a three-year, $54MM contract, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Heyman addsthat Imai can earn up to $3MM per year in incentives if he reaches 100 innings. The deal contains opt-outs after every year, per Jesse Rogers of ESPN.

 

Quote from Randy Manese on January 1, 2026, 11:13 am

Although there was a lot of talk about Miller and/or Morejon moving to the rotation, the player that has been somewhat overlooked is David Morgan.  He has a solid 3 pitch mix (FB (sinker), slider and curveball) and rumor has it that he has been working on a change-up.  Velocity is very good and control is acceptable.  Not a lot of mileage on his arm and continues to mature in all his offerings.  I think he can realistically challenge for that #5 spot and could be optioned to SA to lengthen out and fine-tune for a mid-season SP assignment.  If he can be a little better against LH batters, he has the potential to move up sooner than later.  Darkhorse for the rotation in 2026.

Quote from fenn68 on January 1, 2026, 12:22 pm

Quote from Randy Manese on January 1, 2026, 11:13 am

Although there was a lot of talk about Miller and/or Morejon moving to the rotation, the player that has been somewhat overlooked is David Morgan.  He has a solid 3 pitch mix (FB (sinker), slider and curveball) and rumor has it that he has been working on a change-up.  Velocity is very good and control is acceptable.  Not a lot of mileage on his arm and continues to mature in all his offerings.  I think he can realistically challenge for that #5 spot and could be optioned to SA to lengthen out and fine-tune for a mid-season SP assignment.  If he can be a little better against LH batters, he has the potential to move up sooner than later.  Darkhorse for the rotation in 2026.

Maybe a conversion in 2027 or 2028 but given his 4 year professional history he has never gone more than 60 innings in a season and that would make his starting for a full season (150-200 innings) a low probability ... either he gets injured or just runs out of gas down the stretch. Probably not the scenario I would want to set up in a playoff run in 2026.

Maybe 2026 a long relief role / spot starts (multiple innings) that can yield near 100 innings to build on for the future. After 2026 Pivetta will be gone via FA and maybe King opts out ... so some big holes to fill. He is controlled for 6 seasons ... so no hurry.

Also, if the Padres choose to trade Estrada for some offense support ... Morgan may need to step in to fill that role plus keep in the back of the mind Adam is likely a FA after 2026. Need more evaluation on Rodriguez and Hawkins before the pen mix in 2027 is clear. Padres are relying on the pen to be their advantage ... need to keep it top tier.

 

 

 

Quote from ultratvfan on January 1, 2026, 12:54 pm

Tatsuya Imai signs with Astros for 3 years $54 million.

 

Quote from Randy Manese on January 1, 2026, 1:34 pm

Agree that Pivetta will opt out in 2027 even with the lockout looming because his perceived value will likely be much more than 14 million in 2027 and 18 million in 2028; further, he should have several good years in the future since he will only be 33 in 2026.

On the other hand, despite his player opt outs, I think King wants to finish out his current contract with the Padres and see what happens in 2029 under the new CBA; still can get a hefty contract at 35.  Similarly, although a free agent after the 2026 season, I think he might get offered a short extension in arbitration which will actually lower his projected AAV this year.  He's been such a pitching vagabond before finally finding his niche with the Padres these past 2 years that I think he wants to pretty much finish his career here.  He'll pitch 2026 at age 34 and if gets a 1 or 2 year extension, that could wrap it up for him.  Just listening to him in interviews, he seemed much more concerned with stability for his family at this point in his life vice getting as much money as he can at whatever location he can get it.  I think he can remain a cornerstone in the bullpen for several more years as we reconstitute it by possibly trading Estrada, converting Morgan to a SP and losing (hopefully not) Morejon to free agency.

Quote from fenn68 on January 1, 2026, 2:18 pm

King will be interesting after 2026. Think his 2027 (age 32) option is at $28MM and his option year 2028 (age 33) is $30MM. Both are near what I would expect his near his top AAV as a FA. Agree he (and his wife) would both love to remain in SD where he has based his charitable work.

Despite that ... for his family's future ... if he has the season we all believe he is capable of (in Cy Young contention) ... at age 31-32 he is capable to land a 5-6 year guarantee around $30MM AAV (see Cease). Gets the money and eliminates the risk of injury derailing his future (see Darvish). No matter where he signs he still can live in SD.

It may be up to the Padres (new owners?) to make that longer term commitment. Money is money ... and the unspoken is how they deal with Musgrove after 2027 when he becomes a FA going into age 35 season combined with whatever happens with Darvish's contract that runs through 2028.

A lot of potential moving parts ... for all parties.

 

Quote from lafnboy13 on January 3, 2026, 11:05 am

Now that Okamoto went to the Jays, who is left for the RH 1B role?

Quote from fenn68 on January 3, 2026, 12:26 pm

Quote from lafnboy13 on January 3, 2026, 11:05 am

Now that Okamoto went to the Jays, who is left for the RH 1B role?

At this point ... seeking a RHH does not have to be limited to a 1B/DH. Maybe the best option regardless of position depending on contract fitting the Padres' budget (and willingness to sign with the Padres).

Not out of the question that Cronenworth could slide to 1B (he plays virtually full time) and insert SONG at 2B. Sheets then sits as the LHH DH. If so, then a RHH platooning with Sheets can be from any position. Could also use Campusano as the RHH DH.

Might be useful to know the contract Okamoto got ... have to think it was the money more than the opportunity that landed him in Toronto. That might give a clue as to the ceiling on any FA singing ... although we really don't know how the Padres (although interested) really valued Okamoto. Just the fact that few teams were heavily pursuing him ... his upside may not be as much as we hoped (speculated).

Leaning towards a trade to get that RHH ... FA may be just not that impressive at the price point max of the Padres ... although some FA may "panic" around the start of ST and drop to a workable price (but not anyone compelling). Hays is a RHH who hits LHP very well. France is alway still around. Some of the others are at some level injury issues.

Pretty sure there are some trade options we just don't think of ... this is Preller of course ... but the Padres' bullpen does have the potential trade pieces that could get them that RHH. Estrada for Mayo or a minor league RP (Pena) for Mountcastle. With Alonso in the fold for the long term and their #1 prospect (Top 10 MLB) ML ready for the DH role ... little sense for Balt to keep both (or either) if moving them can help the ML roster now.

Although not my favorite ... don't forget Castellanos could end up acquired for virtually nothing and at league minimum.