Quote from BoosterSD on December 30, 2025, 9:06 am

Quote from fenn68 on December 30, 2025, 8:16 am

If Padres land Okamoto for 1B ... no need for Mountcastle.

As for Mountcastle ... 2025 was really bad but his earlier years were "only" slightly above average ... with middling power (in a hitter's park). Plus BALT has been considering moving him for some time with no takers ... Alonso may change their calculation for a return ... lower.

So, for me, adding Mountcastle is an option ... if better options don't emerge ... and for less valuable trade chips (somewhat dependent on how much of his salary Balt eats.). More a ST type deal.

Padres do have RP ... always in demand ... so using one of the "better" options could (should) the Padres target Mayo for 1B/DH who has 6 years control and is at league minimum. He is projected for 2026 in the same zone as Mountcastle but still has considerable upside.

 

In a way, Mountcastle for Adam is a basically a bounce back for bounce back trade. What makes this a decent option is SD is not adding any dollars.

There IFs with the potential Okamoto signing as well. One, can he hit ML velocity? Two, how much does he sign for? And depending on his contract, how/what does SD do to offset that money.

Trading for Mountcastle is basically a no added money option. Allowing SD to keep Crone at 2B, Sheets/Mountcastle platoon at 1B, and Song (still dont know if he can handle ML pitching) can be the super utility.

Quote from fenn68 on December 30, 2025, 10:15 am

I see two different situations for Adam and Mountcastle ... Adam was a dominate RP (24-25) and has a leg injury given some unknown on recovery (when and how well) but Mountcastle was just an "average" hitter before his poor 2025 ... why the decline?.

If the "risk" of rebound is equal on both I would keep Adam given his plus performance in 2025 ... or trade him (after he shows health in ST) for a better return. Basically a "healthy" Adam has way more trade value to teams needing end of the game RP than what they would get in the Mountcastle risk.

If they wait until ST and then trade Adam ... probably could unload his entire contract (not that big for a quality RP) and get a long control / league minimum player(s). At that time, should be a number of "desperate" FA 1B/DH types willing to sign low 1 year deals.

I do think there is a possibility that late in ST BALT releases Mountcastle (will clear waivers given his contract) for roster space and could be picked up for league minimum. I know some were surprised the was tendered a contract at that projected arb decision so, if the Padres liked him, a good chance they could get him for a less return with the Orioles eating much of his contract.

This is Preller ... so no hurry to make moves (late ST is fine) and sort of treats most players on the fringe as interchangeable and goes for the right price.

Who has the greater risk ... Mountcastle at $7.8MM (while losing Adam) or keeping Adam (or trading Adam for a better return) and signing Hoskins at a dirt cheap / incentive 1 year deal. Preller has to be juggling a lot of similar scenarios before he lands on something.

Alternatively, would Preller be better off leveraging a trade out of the pen for a reliable SP instead of  a RHH? Easier to cover a RHH (low cost) than finding an upgrade from Sears - Waldron - Hart.

Quote from Jeremy Hill on December 30, 2025, 10:16 am

I would put Mountcastle in the same category as Castellanos. He's coming off of a bad year overall. He hasn't hit right handed pitching well enough to justify a full time 1B/DH spot in years. He's projected to make almost 8m in arbitration. If the Orioles wanted to pay most of his salary and trade him for a lottery ticket prospect I would take him. I wouldn't give up anything of value or take on that salary for a guy who is increasingly looking like a weak side platoon bat at best.

Quote from Jeremy Hill on December 30, 2025, 11:06 am

It seems like Tatsuya Imai's market is much softer than expected. I wonder if there's an opportunity for AJ to come up with another creative deal.

Quote from fenn68 on December 30, 2025, 11:23 am

Quote from Jeremy Hill on December 30, 2025, 11:06 am

It seems like Tatsuya Imai's market is much softer than expected. I wonder if there's an opportunity for AJ to come up with another creative deal.

Could be ... Boras is his agent. However, creative or not, it will not be cheap. Not sure how the Padres would handle that with their finances.

Of course one scenario is signing Imai ($20MM AAV range) and then trade the one remaining year of Pivetta ($20MM in 2026) resulting in a longer control of a (hopefully) top line SP while likely getting a nice return of long control / low cost prospects for Pivetta.

Decision window closes Jan 2 ... I think. (note Okamoto's window closes on the 4th I think ... so within a few days the future of the Padres and the strategy of Preller could drastically change).

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 30, 2025, 11:26 am

Here we are talking about buy low options like Hoskins and Mountcastle because we all assume we can't spend any money.

But we didn't think we could afford King either.

So this very well may have to do with the Okamoto decision

Are they serious contenders and if so will they have to move other $ to get it done?

ie:Cronenworth/Matsui/Laureano/Peralta

It sure seems like if they add anyone over $5 mil/yr they will have to move a contract....but do they?

Sometimes I wish the FO was more open about what they are doing,what they can/will spend,  but most times I'm happy they aren't.

Just makes it difficult for us to "guess" whats gonna happen.

lol

 

 

 

 

Quote from fenn68 on December 30, 2025, 11:40 am

While this is all going on ... did notice that NONE of the FA OF have signed. Sure some may be waiting for Tucker and Bellinger to sign and create a void but the drop is great after them so not sure that is a valid strategy.

If we take our focus off a RHH 1B/DH type and just go with a RHH ... what about Austin Hays ... he mashes vs. LHP and can play LF/RF/DH. Projected at 1 year $7MM but given the current market of his level of player ... might land him cheaper.

A lot depends on how THE PADRES evaluate Song (is he going to hit enough) and Sheets (can he be "adequate" vs LHP). Plus what would be their back-up plan. How much faith do they have in the rest of the line-up ... enough to cover any shortfall?

Quote from BoosterSD on December 30, 2025, 12:20 pm

Quote from fenn68 on December 30, 2025, 11:40 am

If we take our focus off a RHH 1B/DH type and just go with a RHH ... what about Austin Hays ... he mashes vs. LHP and can play LF/RF/DH. Projected at 1 year $7MM but given the current market of his level of player ... might land him cheaper.

Are you thinking as an addition, or as a replacement for Laureano? As an addition, sure if the price is right. As a replacement for Laureano (trade scenario) probably not.

Quote from BoosterSD on December 30, 2025, 12:23 pm

Just saw that LAA and Rendon have restructured his contract. He is not retiring, and probably not staying with the team, but they have a "new" contract in place. Now the story on MLBTR did not say IF or HOW much LAA will be saving towards the CBT, but gives some hope in regards to the Darvish situation.