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2025-26 Offseason thread
Quote from fenn68 on January 3, 2026, 12:40 pmThe deal is a four-year contract worth $60MM, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post, and MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand adds that there are no opt-outs and that Okamoto gets a $5MM signing bonus. Okamoto is represented by the Boras Corporation.
I can see where 4 years and a $15MM AAV would be an issue for the Padres. By years 3-4 ... Machado, Tatis, Merrill have some very large contractual increases coming plus Miller and Fermin will be in their later ARB years. Plus may need to keep payroll flexibility to add SP ... Pivetta, King, Musgrove will be FA before then and replacing them with similar talent will cost more than they are currently getting.
Simply the Padres may think they are better off landing lower cost FA RHH on short term deals for the flexibility to use payroll on other needs (remember Lauriano is also gone after 2026 and Sheets after 2027). Rely on the core stars and fill with short term options.
The deal is a four-year contract worth $60MM, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post, and MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand adds that there are no opt-outs and that Okamoto gets a $5MM signing bonus. Okamoto is represented by the Boras Corporation.
I can see where 4 years and a $15MM AAV would be an issue for the Padres. By years 3-4 ... Machado, Tatis, Merrill have some very large contractual increases coming plus Miller and Fermin will be in their later ARB years. Plus may need to keep payroll flexibility to add SP ... Pivetta, King, Musgrove will be FA before then and replacing them with similar talent will cost more than they are currently getting.
Simply the Padres may think they are better off landing lower cost FA RHH on short term deals for the flexibility to use payroll on other needs (remember Lauriano is also gone after 2026 and Sheets after 2027). Rely on the core stars and fill with short term options.
Quote from MrPadre19 on January 5, 2026, 7:56 pmChris Bassitt anyone?
He just posted a Top Gun Video with the title… “Me”
Chris Bassitt anyone?
He just posted a Top Gun Video with the title… “Me”
Quote from brent wolff on January 5, 2026, 9:57 pmQuote from MrPadre19 on January 5, 2026, 7:56 pmChris Bassitt anyone?
He just posted a Top Gun Video with no text except “Me”
He can start a playoff game, so I say "yes please," as starter #4/#3. One major key to next season will be the starting rotation. Need healthy seasons from King, Pivetta & Musgrove. Both King and Musgrove could probably use a break in each half of the season, sitting out a couple of starts each. Hopefully, Vasquez continues to develop at the 5th starter and McKenzie can find his grove again under Nieabla, so McKenzie can provide the necessary breaks for 8 starts that King and Musgrove probably will need. Go Pads!
Quote from MrPadre19 on January 5, 2026, 7:56 pmChris Bassitt anyone?
He just posted a Top Gun Video with no text except “Me”
He can start a playoff game, so I say "yes please," as starter #4/#3. One major key to next season will be the starting rotation. Need healthy seasons from King, Pivetta & Musgrove. Both King and Musgrove could probably use a break in each half of the season, sitting out a couple of starts each. Hopefully, Vasquez continues to develop at the 5th starter and McKenzie can find his grove again under Nieabla, so McKenzie can provide the necessary breaks for 8 starts that King and Musgrove probably will need. Go Pads!
Quote from fenn68 on January 6, 2026, 10:57 amBassitt is likely too expensive ... projected at a 2 year deal with an $18MM AAV. Probably waiting for Valdez and Suarez to sign then leverage the other teams as one of the top SP on the market.
If no trade for a mid-rotation SP (think unlikely do limited trade chips that others want unless it is offsetting bad contracts ... Matsui for X?) ... would expect a FA signing more in the #4-5 SP range (if rebounds from recent past) in a max $5MM / 1 year range. Maybe someone like Tyler Anderson or Cal Quantrill. Just someone with a chance to be better than Sears (now the most likely to sit in the #5 role). Note no real #6 unless McKinzie rebounds or some real ahead of schedule prospects (don't see it yet).
Bassitt is likely too expensive ... projected at a 2 year deal with an $18MM AAV. Probably waiting for Valdez and Suarez to sign then leverage the other teams as one of the top SP on the market.
If no trade for a mid-rotation SP (think unlikely do limited trade chips that others want unless it is offsetting bad contracts ... Matsui for X?) ... would expect a FA signing more in the #4-5 SP range (if rebounds from recent past) in a max $5MM / 1 year range. Maybe someone like Tyler Anderson or Cal Quantrill. Just someone with a chance to be better than Sears (now the most likely to sit in the #5 role). Note no real #6 unless McKinzie rebounds or some real ahead of schedule prospects (don't see it yet).
Quote from fenn68 on January 6, 2026, 11:16 amStill should address that RHH who ... at a minimum serves to platoon with Sheets or Song ... or two to platoon with both.
As it stands the starting 9: Fermin - Sheets(L) - Song (L) - Cronenworth (L) - Bogaerts - Machado - Laureano - Merrill (L) - Tatis ... and that is pretty good already ... no team has above average players at all nine spots.
For now Campusano is in a the #2 catcher / RHH DH, 1B. That leaves three bench slots out of four currently on the 40 man: Wagner (L); McCoy; Johnson (#); Ornelas (L). Not big hurdles to clear via a low end FA (or two).
Padres have two "long shots" for that RHH 1B/DH bench role with "some" past success in MLB:
Jose Miranda ... bad 2025 but some positives as a 1B/3B prior in Minn.
One real sleeper may be Nick Solak who played in Texas (2019-21) (819 AB) and hit well and was 15% above average vs LHP. After 2021 ... injuries followed by just under performance put him out of favor ... but just 30 so maybe? He has played a lot as a 2B/LF with 1B experience.
Still should address that RHH who ... at a minimum serves to platoon with Sheets or Song ... or two to platoon with both.
As it stands the starting 9: Fermin - Sheets(L) - Song (L) - Cronenworth (L) - Bogaerts - Machado - Laureano - Merrill (L) - Tatis ... and that is pretty good already ... no team has above average players at all nine spots.
For now Campusano is in a the #2 catcher / RHH DH, 1B. That leaves three bench slots out of four currently on the 40 man: Wagner (L); McCoy; Johnson (#); Ornelas (L). Not big hurdles to clear via a low end FA (or two).
Padres have two "long shots" for that RHH 1B/DH bench role with "some" past success in MLB:
Jose Miranda ... bad 2025 but some positives as a 1B/3B prior in Minn.
One real sleeper may be Nick Solak who played in Texas (2019-21) (819 AB) and hit well and was 15% above average vs LHP. After 2021 ... injuries followed by just under performance put him out of favor ... but just 30 so maybe? He has played a lot as a 2B/LF with 1B experience.
Quote from MrPadre19 on January 6, 2026, 11:33 amQuote from fenn68 on January 6, 2026, 10:57 amBassitt is likely too expensive ... projected at a 2 year deal with an $18MM AAV. Probably waiting for Valdez and Suarez to sign then leverage the other teams as one of the top SP on the market.
If no trade for a mid-rotation SP (think unlikely do limited trade chips that others want unless it is offsetting bad contracts ... Matsui for X?) ... would expect a FA signing more in the #4-5 SP range (if rebounds from recent past) in a max $5MM / 1 year range. Maybe someone like Tyler Anderson or Cal Quantrill. Just someone with a chance to be better than Sears (now the most likely to sit in the #5 role). Note no real #6 unless McKinzie rebounds or some real ahead of schedule prospects (don't see it yet).
Well, I would mostly agree with you but if we were indeed close on Okamoto and he signed for 4/$60....who knows?
We keep thinking we don't have any $ to spend and they keep surprising us.
They may think Bassitt could be Pivetta 2.0?
Quote from fenn68 on January 6, 2026, 10:57 amBassitt is likely too expensive ... projected at a 2 year deal with an $18MM AAV. Probably waiting for Valdez and Suarez to sign then leverage the other teams as one of the top SP on the market.
If no trade for a mid-rotation SP (think unlikely do limited trade chips that others want unless it is offsetting bad contracts ... Matsui for X?) ... would expect a FA signing more in the #4-5 SP range (if rebounds from recent past) in a max $5MM / 1 year range. Maybe someone like Tyler Anderson or Cal Quantrill. Just someone with a chance to be better than Sears (now the most likely to sit in the #5 role). Note no real #6 unless McKinzie rebounds or some real ahead of schedule prospects (don't see it yet).
Well, I would mostly agree with you but if we were indeed close on Okamoto and he signed for 4/$60....who knows?
We keep thinking we don't have any $ to spend and they keep surprising us.
They may think Bassitt could be Pivetta 2.0?
Quote from fenn68 on January 6, 2026, 11:44 amQuote from MrPadre19 on January 6, 2026, 11:33 amQuote from fenn68 on January 6, 2026, 10:57 amBassitt is likely too expensive ... projected at a 2 year deal with an $18MM AAV. Probably waiting for Valdez and Suarez to sign then leverage the other teams as one of the top SP on the market.
If no trade for a mid-rotation SP (think unlikely do limited trade chips that others want unless it is offsetting bad contracts ... Matsui for X?) ... would expect a FA signing more in the #4-5 SP range (if rebounds from recent past) in a max $5MM / 1 year range. Maybe someone like Tyler Anderson or Cal Quantrill. Just someone with a chance to be better than Sears (now the most likely to sit in the #5 role). Note no real #6 unless McKinzie rebounds or some real ahead of schedule prospects (don't see it yet).
Well, I would mostly agree with you but if we were indeed close on Okamoto and he signed for 4/$60....who knows?
We keep thinking we don't have any $ to spend and they keep surprising us.
They may think Bassitt could be Pivetta 2.0?
Yeh, we never know (and I would like Bassitt as a Padre). Although Preller was "in" on Okamoto ... we have no idea what they had an as offer ... could have been quite less and unlikely four years as I suggested in an earlier note. Being "in" does not mean making a competitive offer.
Not sure even if the clear some payroll with trades (actually not a lot of options realistically) they would generate enough space.
Quote from MrPadre19 on January 6, 2026, 11:33 amQuote from fenn68 on January 6, 2026, 10:57 amBassitt is likely too expensive ... projected at a 2 year deal with an $18MM AAV. Probably waiting for Valdez and Suarez to sign then leverage the other teams as one of the top SP on the market.
If no trade for a mid-rotation SP (think unlikely do limited trade chips that others want unless it is offsetting bad contracts ... Matsui for X?) ... would expect a FA signing more in the #4-5 SP range (if rebounds from recent past) in a max $5MM / 1 year range. Maybe someone like Tyler Anderson or Cal Quantrill. Just someone with a chance to be better than Sears (now the most likely to sit in the #5 role). Note no real #6 unless McKinzie rebounds or some real ahead of schedule prospects (don't see it yet).
Well, I would mostly agree with you but if we were indeed close on Okamoto and he signed for 4/$60....who knows?
We keep thinking we don't have any $ to spend and they keep surprising us.
They may think Bassitt could be Pivetta 2.0?
Yeh, we never know (and I would like Bassitt as a Padre). Although Preller was "in" on Okamoto ... we have no idea what they had an as offer ... could have been quite less and unlikely four years as I suggested in an earlier note. Being "in" does not mean making a competitive offer.
Not sure even if the clear some payroll with trades (actually not a lot of options realistically) they would generate enough space.
Quote from brent wolff on January 6, 2026, 1:44 pmMaybe Bassitt gambles on himself and AJP gets creative with opt outs again. Also, I still prefer Austin Hays as the RHH platoon side of DH/1B/COF. At least that is what I am hoping for. Solak could work as well. Go Pads!
Maybe Bassitt gambles on himself and AJP gets creative with opt outs again. Also, I still prefer Austin Hays as the RHH platoon side of DH/1B/COF. At least that is what I am hoping for. Solak could work as well. Go Pads!
Quote from brent wolff on January 7, 2026, 8:41 amAre we tied to any international players for the upcoming international signing day?
Are we tied to any international players for the upcoming international signing day?
Quote from Jeremy Hill on January 7, 2026, 10:10 amQuote from brent wolff on January 7, 2026, 8:41 amAre we tied to any international players for the upcoming international signing day?
The 2 big commitments I've read about are to Joniel Hernandez a SS out of Cuba and Diego Serna a LHP out of Mexico.
Quote from brent wolff on January 7, 2026, 8:41 amAre we tied to any international players for the upcoming international signing day?
The 2 big commitments I've read about are to Joniel Hernandez a SS out of Cuba and Diego Serna a LHP out of Mexico.




