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2025-26 Offseason thread
#21 · October 6, 2025, 9:43 am
Quote from brent wolff on October 5, 2025, 6:07 pmIt is time to develop and keep some of our younger SPs, like Schoolcraft, Mayfield, Cruz (even though he is recovering from TJ surgery). We need some cost effective starting pitching.
Plus need to develop some cost effective hitting/position players, besides Merrill. Sheets and Fermin aren't overly expensive at this point in their careers and are positive WAR players.
Need a RH hitting 1B/DH. Also, need a #2 catcher, doubt they pick up Diaz's $7 million option. I'm hoping they re-sign both King and Igelesis. Johnson did well as the 5th OF, defensive replacement. Need to use younger and cheaper RPs in the pen, such as Rodriguez, Reynolds, Marinaccio, Jacob and Hoeing. Hopefully Peralta opts out, possibly trade Matsui.
Unfortunately, can not afford to re-sign Cease, Suarez (opt out), Arraez or O'Hearn. AJP and staff have their work cut out for them. Go Pads!
Here in lies the rub: AJ, in his decade + as GM of our San Diego Padres, NEVER develops starting pitchers( and no positional players not named Merrill) and keeps them. All of them( Gore, Quantril, Lauer, Lucchesi, Snelling, etc) are used as trade bait after getting cups of coffee in the bigs.
Everyone talks about a championship window.....I'm not even sure we have a window, let alone it being open! We're financially over extended, lacking depth( other than BP)and no one on the horizon at ANY position. I mentioned blowing it up when this failed but I'm not sure that is even possible. Who could we trade? Tatis? Merrill? Maybe Cronenworth? The bullpen guys? Pivetta?
I don't believe Manny is the guy to lead us, either. But he's what we got. I just hope he doesn't/ hasn't worn off on Tatis! FTJ can still be pretty special.
Sometimes I think AJ pulls off these outlandish( 4 and 5 for 1's) deals just so he can hear his name mentioned! Whilst trade deadline aquisitions seem flashy at the time, they generally fall flat. And NONE have led to success.
I'm all for trying your best, swingin' for the fence, in hopes of grabbing a trophy. But we MUST build from within, to make this sustainable long term. Use extra dollars to lure the Eric Hosmer's and Manny Machado's via FA. But we're not the Duds, neither by market nor bank account.
I'm not saying a 25 man of all home grown but 3,4,5 home grown position players, a handful of pitchers, both starters and pen. Should keep us viable financially for the future.
#22 · October 6, 2025, 11:05 am
Would love to have some key young (cheap) home grown players in the 26 man mix but Preller's moves have put the Padres in the playoffs 4 of the last 6 seasons ... and is yielding sold out PETCO (so the paying fans seem happy) ... can't really complain about Preller's strategy. Sure no World Series ... but that is always a playoff result that transcend the quality of any team ... the best team for the season does not always win.
However, Preller may be boxed into a challenging role with:
- an undetermined impact of the new CBA on payrolls, player movement, etc.
- a thin minor league system with the better prospects in the lower levels ... limiting big trade potential or having prospects in the majors in the near term
- existing long term deals that escalate CASH payouts by a significant amounts for Machado, Tatis, and Merrill
- significant arbitration increases coming for elite current players such as Miller, Fermin, and even Estrada and Morgan who are all at league minimum now ... how big in 3 years?
- filling holes from the departure of Pivetta (2027), Musgrove (2028), and Darvish (2029) with that quality of SP just hard to find and if found expensive on long term deals
Might make me avoid any new long term deals now (prefer one year but maybe only up to three for the "right" player). Recalibrate after the new CBA is signed. Then just roll in the unknown of the budget limits now and the realistically "available" upgrade options ... whew ... not easy.
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#23 · October 6, 2025, 4:10 pm
MLBTradeRumors has just come out with their projections of salary arbitration decisions (they are usually pretty close):
Padres (7)
- Adrian Morejon (5.140): $3.6MM
- Jason Adam (5.132): $6.8MM
- Gavin Sheets (4.076): $4.3MM
- JP Sears (3.065): $3.5MM
- Luis Campusano (3.003): $1MM
- Mason Miller (2.166): $3.4MM
- Freddy Fermin (2.165: $1.8MM
#24 · October 6, 2025, 4:14 pm
Despite the highly likely loss of Suarez from a very stacked bullpen, I believe his loss can be more easily compensated by existing RPs Estrada, Morejon and Adam. I understand that the latter two will be in their walk year so it might be prudent, while have all 3 of those guys, to take a very long look at Miller as a SP because he seems our best option to solidify the rotation for the next couple of years even if we are able to re-sign King. If all are healthy, a rotation of Pivetta, King, Miller, Musgrove and Darvish or Vasquez should be one of the better rotations in the majors, although there will be some ups and downs in bringing pitchers back from injury or their conversion from RP. Sears, Hoeing and Waldron look to be the back-ups with the first two still having options; don't expect much from Brito.
Besides those already mentioned, the bullpen will still be strong with Morgan, Rodriguez, Reynolds, Marinaccio, Jacob, Matsui and Peralta (plus those SPs who are not in the rotation) and guys like Cruz, non-roster risers like Hawkins and Gustin and the outside possibility Hart returns after the Padres decline his option.
I don't think Morejon has the stamina to be a SP and he has been very good to excellent the last two years in the pen. I think there is injury risk based on the earlier part of his career. If he wants to try it, then be all means let him have at it; however, my preference is to extend him on a 2-3 year contract with incentives and opportunities to make that change to a SP when and if he does want to do that in the future. Morejon is one of the longest tenured Padres and I believe he wants to stay in San Diego beyond the 2026 season.
If Miller doesn't work out as a SP, he becomes "the" closer to support a lot of solid arms in a theoretically very good pen. My hope is that Miller can resume his SP duties and gives us at least 5 strong innings every outing. I believe if Niebla can get him to add a serviceable change-up or sweeper to his pitch mix and get his BB/9 IP at 3.5 or below, we will have one of the better SP in the majors.
The off-season is a time to dream. The successful return of Miller to the rotation is mine.
#25 · October 6, 2025, 5:35 pm
Wonder what the Padres think of a Miller conversion to SP ... it was brought up at the point of the trade. Have to commit in ST to first get him ready and then give him months of a leash to prove it. I do agree that Adam, Estrada, Morgan can lead the RHRP with potentially strong fill from Rodriguez, Marinaccio, and Reynolds ... maybe even Hawkins.
Dominoes ... IF they buy into the conversion ... and given the presumed budget limits ... that may allow them to pass on King at about $20MM+ / long term. That in turn will allow the Padres to make more significant upgrades to the offense with that $20MM and maybe pick-up a "serviceable" bottom of the rotation arm. Almost have to have that decision make during the winter (or now) since will direct how they use their budget on FA.
Could be OK with Pivetta, Musgrove, Miller, Vasquez, and Darvish with Sears (or a PTNL) as the back-up. I have less of an issue with Darvish's work as a #4-5 SP (over paid but can't help that) ... most of the league needs anything out of #4-5. With an enhanced offense and still a strong pen ... that can get them into the playoff ... then TBD at the trade deadline.
I guess a counter argument that suggests re-signing King is that Pivetta will go FA after 2026 (and Miller could do his conversion for 2027 with still 3 year under control). With Pivetta gone and Darvish two years older and Musgrove a FA after 2027 (and older) ... King on a longer deal might be a must for stability ... not likely Schoolcraft or Mayfield will be ready to be a top of the rotation arm in that window. Saving Pivetta's $20MM due in 2026 would allow some flexibility on how to address 2027 and beyond.
Always a balance between a one year view and success in the future years.
#26 · October 6, 2025, 5:43 pm
I can see letting Adam depart after 2026 ... again a lot of RHRP that are pretty good. Extending Morejon seems like what they try to pursue ... Padres have a real need for a LHRP that is good ... he is ... and he is still only 26.
#27 · October 6, 2025, 5:55 pm
MLBTradeRumors has their list of 1B FA with some commentary.
- They see O'Hearn as a top 3 behind Alonso and Naylor ... basically good all around but at 32 some limit on contract length. Did not guess at this point on contract. Probably out of the Padres' range.
- They did see Arraez as a regular but not all that complementary on his diminishing skill set Yet, do think he will find a taker but clearly are mystified (as am I) on what his contract will look like. Guessing a lot less than his $14MM this year (unless some odd team shows up) ... don't see the Padres even pursuing him at a reduced salary (and some comments by Arraez suggest that). He was 4th on their list.
After that the quality / health / expected contract demands make the others the type you wait until ST and if they have not found a home might pick them up cheap or minor league / make good deal.
#28 · October 6, 2025, 9:58 pm
Morejon is a Boras client who hasn't made a ton of money yet. Boras typically likes to take his clients to free agency and look for the biggest payday. On their end they're probably looking at the deals Josh Hader and Tanner Scott signed and thinking he could approach that territory with another strong year. While I would like to see him stick around I'm not sure we can afford to drop big money on a reliever. I would offer him a deal structured like the ones they worked out with Nick Martinez when he was here. Bump up his base salary a bit and give him incentives for starting and relieving. If he wants to see if he can hold up as a starter with his new mechanics he gets the chance to earn big money. He seems content working as a reliever now though. He'll be hitting free agency ahead of his age 28 season. With a good year the money will be there for him. I think it'll be hard to lock him up. Honestly they may have to consider trading him if he isn't open to an extension on their terms.
#29 · October 7, 2025, 2:37 am
Did not know he was a Boras client ... yea, that would be a hard sign at any point plus Boras does not like extensions with only one season to FA.
Looking as though 2026 will do a lot to set a price point considering he may be a closer or a set-up man (who would command a bit less). However his 2025 will get him up the pay ladder with the 14th best ERA among qualified RP (3rd in WAR). If he just repeats 2025 ... maybe a Suarez type deal in the 4 year $10MM AAV range with opt outs. Needs to be a dominant closer to move into the Hader zone.
Hard to tell where the Padres will sit budget-wise at the end of 2026 ... but if nothing else Pivetta (at about $20MM), Adam (about $6.8MM), and Laureano ($6.5MM) will come off the books opening some payroll space for 2027 ... and the Padres may need a quality LHRP but without Morejon they have none. So, with maybe $33MM to play with ... but needed other replacement pieces ... Preller may make a push to re-sign Morejon as a FA considering Adam is also a FA (older so very unlikely to be a Preller target to resign).
Padres plan to contend in 2026 ... so can't see trading Morejon who beyond being a top LHRP will be very low cost at about $3.6MM. Even less likely if they go with converting Miller to a SP. In a trade, with only one year control, Morejon might yield a "nice" return but unlikely one that adds equal (or better) value to 2026 than keeping Morejon.
The Boras factor will be hard to overcome ... plus Preller does not seem to favor pursuing extensions for RP ... but Morejon may be an exception given his age and being a LHRP without a replacement in hand ... plus money may be available in 2027.
I guess could look at replacing Adam with a league minimum type and save his salary ... add Morejon's for 2026 ... and could cover a $10MM pay for Morejon in 2027 with the same overall team payroll.
As strong as we see the pen now ... with Suarez gone and if Miller is converted to a SP ... the departures of both Adam and Morejon would leave a pretty thin pen for 2027 ... making pursuit of Morejon more of a priority for Preller (maybe) for 2027.
#30 · October 7, 2025, 3:08 am
Sports Illustrated reported that Morejon left Boras and signed with Dan Lozano and MVP Sports on 8 Nov 2024. That is consistent with what is listed for Morejon on the Cot's Baseball Contracts spreadsheet. Other MVP Sports clients are Tatis, Machado, Arraez and Iglesias, so the Boras factor doesn't exist.
Although Suarez was technically a free agent after the 2022 season, he essentially got a multi-year extension at age 32, just 10 days after electing free agency. For the reasons I stated earlier, believe Morejon will be offered a multi-year extension with incentives (which he accepts) that allows him a lot of flexibility as he approaches his 30's.
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