Quote from Jeremy Hill on October 5, 2025, 11:37 am

I think we should start by looking at our final payroll totals to get an idea of what are financial situation might be headed into next year. Fangraphs estimates our payroll came in at about 211m with a CBT number around 263m. After the fans set another attendance record and they responded by  announcing that season ticket prices are increasing again I think it would be hard to sell not maintaining something at least close to those levels.

After guessing at arbitration numbers I put our payroll heading into 2026 in the 190-200m range and the CBT maybe 30-35m higher than that.

I think we should be looking to find at least 1 starter, add some power to the lineup and get better against left handed pitching. I think the biggest decision they have to make is whether or not they think they can fill out the rotation internally. How much faith do they have in Darvish? How many candidates are there to transition from the bullpen to the rotation? Our bullpen depth is our biggest strength. If we can take advantage of that by moving guys into the rotation while opening spots up for cheap young arms it could go a long way.

On the position player side of things I think you're looking for a power 1B/DH type. If they didn't trust Campusano to catch over the likes of Maldonado or Diaz or even get ABs over the likes of Brooks, Wagner and others I think they'll probably try to bring in a C too. Then they'll be looking to fill out the bench and add some depth. I don't really think they have anything internally they can count on so they'll have to look to the FA and trade markets.

They probably can't afford the big bats like Schwarber, Alonso and Murakami. I have a feeling they'll make a play for Okamoto. Hoskins might be a solid target too. If they go the trade route I could see someone like Yandy Diaz being a target. The FA C market looks weak. Maybe they could reunite with Gary Sanchez and hope he can provide some pop again. Willson Contreras could be a good fit on the trade market if they thought he could still catch once or twice a week.

To fill out the bench I would love to see them make a play for Rob Refsnyder. He hits lefties really well and could platoon with Sheets. Luis Rengifo could make sense as a cheap bounce back candidate. Old friend Franmil Reyes was a top 5 bat in Japan and could make for an interesting return candidate. Former top prospect Lewin Diaz had a huge year in the KBO where he hit 50 HRs. They could be potentially cheap sources of power.

Quote from fenn68 on October 5, 2025, 1:50 pm

I did a quick and dirty on a projected 2026 payroll (both Cash and CBT) a few months back (think before Miller, Fermin, and Laureano). Factored in all the departures, added the estimated arbitrations, and contract changes for CASH (eg. Pivetta goes up about $20MM).

As I recall, the Padres have no choice but to over shoot the CBT if they add and will also be near the 2025 Cash level. Padres likely will spend but in a "controlled" manner. Just adding King and Iglesias will add around $20-25MM ... and I think that sends the remaining moves into the more average player targets at low cost.

They easily have a 26 man roster that has a quality full pitching complement (if King is added) ... so if a SP is considered he would likely be a make good rebound minor league sign. Darvish may breakdown (but he will still get paid) and Padres will not bump him out of the rotation in ST. Can't really afford better while paying whomever they displace.

The starting 8 position players are all capable of playing most games (not really platoon types) ... so that probably would not focus on 1B/DH (Sheets starts / Cronenworth if needed) and with Iglesias, Johnson, and Campusano potentially on the bench covering defensively all 8 positions ... target the final two bench / 9th bat as one LHH / one RHH ... one OF (in-case of a starting OF injury) and one INF (in-case of starting INF injury). In both cases, since the 9th bat is the issue, favor offense skills over defense. With any luck they can land both for a net under $10MM ... anyone substantially better will be looking multi-year and $15MM+.

Frankly not all that worried about that 9th hitter early in the season given the other 8 and the pitching staff. IF an issue later in the season address it with a cheap "rental" at the trade deadline. Add King and Iglesias and should be in a strong playoff position into mid-late season.

 

 

 

Quote from Jeremy Hill on October 5, 2025, 4:09 pm

Sheets had a .669 OPS against lefties this season. That's the best he's ever done in a season. He has only managed a .557 for his career. League average OPS for a 1B without factoring in matchups was .754 this season. Sheets should absolutely be platooned. For comparison's sake Refsnyder who I brought up has a .924 OPS against lefties in his 4 seasons in Boston.

Quote from fenn68 on October 5, 2025, 5:15 pm

Quote from Jeremy Hill on October 5, 2025, 4:09 pm

Sheets had a .669 OPS against lefties this season. That's the best he's ever done in a season. He has only managed a .557 for his career. League average OPS for a 1B without factoring in matchups was .754 this season. Sheets should absolutely be platooned. For comparison's sake Refsnyder who I brought up has a .924 OPS against lefties in his 4 seasons in Boston.

I too worry about Sheets but finding a platoon partner ... in my mind ... sits behind finding a working combo for the 9th hitter.

Actually Refsnyder is a good option as a FA ... he is mid-30s and making below $3MM ... one issue would be he is an OF and he would be platooning with Sheets probably as the DH meaning the Padres would still need to track down a 1B (probably RHH) to start in those situations. Workable and at the level I see the Padres moving.

Maybe Refsnyder (DH) and France (1B) against LHP ... and if they sign Iglesias some RHH insurance? I guess that puts one of those three in the line-up vs RHP ... somewhere at DH or in the field. Probably could land all three for $8MM.

Of course, those (or any) players will have to actually sign vs a higher bidding team (if any).

Quote from brent wolff on October 5, 2025, 6:07 pm

It is time to develop and keep some of our younger SPs, like Schoolcraft, Mayfield, Cruz (even though he is recovering from TJ surgery).  We need some cost effective starting pitching.

Plus need to develop some cost effective hitting/position players, besides Merrill.  Sheets and Fermin aren't overly expensive at this point in their careers and are positive WAR players.

Need a RH hitting 1B/DH.  Also, need a #2 catcher, doubt they pick up Diaz's $7 million option.  I'm hoping they re-sign both King and Igelesis.  Johnson did well as the 5th OF, defensive replacement.  Need to use younger and cheaper RPs in the pen, such as Rodriguez, Reynolds, Marinaccio, Jacob and Hoeing.  Hopefully Peralta opts out, possibly trade Matsui.

Unfortunately, can not afford to re-sign Cease, Suarez (opt out), Arraez or O'Hearn.  AJP and staff have their work cut out for them.  Go Pads!

Quote from fenn68 on October 6, 2025, 3:51 am

Padres had a tough time vs LHP during 2025 and clearly in the playoffs ... so in looking for upgrades logically should seek players who can hit above average vs LHP.

For reference, in 2025, the Padres hit above average wRC+ at 105 (11th in MLB) while vs LHP at 96 (17th). The departure of Arraez will give an opportunity to improve since he was way down at 82 wRC+ vs LHP and played a lot in a key #2 in the line-up. Also losing O'Hearn and he hit LHP well (but in a small sample size of 48 PA). However, returning are Merrill (81 wRC+) and Sheets (89 wRC+) ... but surprising Cronenworth hit LHP well at 116 wRC+. A full season of Laureano should help (over the likes of Heyward, Joe, et al).

Generally the Padre RHH seem to do well vs RHP ... so even though RHP make up about 70-80% of starters during the season may not need to add LHH to win ... maybe more important to add an effective RHH vs LHP (and just not bad vs RHP).

Overall full seasons of Merrill and Bogaerts plus the full seasons of Laureano and Fermin (over the various 2025 players) SHOULD improve the overall offense during the course of the season. Put that with the strong pitching (if they re-sign King) ... in good shape if they are just strategic in adding that 9th bat and at least one bench piece to mitigate the risk of Sheets regressing.

However, the hitting with RISP is just something that we will have to rely on 2026 being different than 2025 with all the core hitters (who are not going anywhere) ... Padres have the player talent and in previous years were better with RISP. Just one of many outcomes that vary year to year without a clear cause (same goes for winning in extra innings, Road vs Home splits, and the like). That's baseball.

So, seems to me, the offense during the regular season should be fine with the current core and only a couple strategic adds ... no need for a major add (even though that would be "nice").

Quote from WindsorUK on October 6, 2025, 6:08 am

As much as I'd like a thumper in the full time DH role, I'd also love to see someone with game changing speed brought in.

Outside of FTJ, we don't have any super fast guys. Ideally he'd replace Bryce Johnson in the OF reserve role, or come in as a SS/2B back up..

Quote from sportwarrior on October 6, 2025, 8:57 am

Random thoughts on my random pop-in at the ol forums...

My money is in Darvy retiring this off-season.

We absolutely should resign King.

We need to add a Big Bat (TM), but we'll also be adding simply by subtracting Arraez.

Most importantly... I have suspected this since we signed him, but Manny is not the dude to lead this team to a championship. He's a great player, but if we're going to hoist a trophy, it has to be someone else leading the charge on and off the field. What do we do about that? I dunno. But Manny ain't the guy.

Quote from fenn68 on October 6, 2025, 9:01 am

Did another quick and dirty estimate of payroll with the returning roster.

For CBT purposes, have it around $232MM ... $12MM under the first luxury tax threshold.

For CASH on the 26 man (including buyouts), have it at $191MM. Final numbers are not in (as far as I can tell) but 2025 CASH for the 26 man should be around $210MM ... so maybe $19MM to "stay even" on CASH.

Difference is due to AAVs are higher than 2026 CASH for a number of players (Manny, Merrill, Tatis, ...) and the other CBT considerations for benefits, etc.

So, IF going under the CBT to avoid violating it (and greater penalties) only about $12MM to deploy. IF don't care in 2026, deploying $19MM to stay the same is in play.

Unknown ... the record attendance in 2025 and the potential added revenue from the MLB TV arrangement would seem to suggest they can boost spending more ... BUT ... did those revenues streams already get considered in the 2025 spending level (at some level)? Did the Padres run a cash deficit in 2025 in order to make the playoffs?

We will know more only when Preller makes (or does not make) his winter moves. For now as a debate thesis ... working with plus $20MM+/- as the base case ... not a lot to fill all the upgrade needs with top quality players.