Quote from Randy Manese on October 7, 2025, 4:01 am

Quote from fenn68 on October 6, 2025, 4:10 pm

MLBTradeRumors has just come out with their projections of salary arbitration decisions (they are usually pretty close):

Padres (7)

• Adrian Morejon (5.140): $3.6MM
• Jason Adam (5.132): $6.8MM
• Gavin Sheets (4.076): $4.3MM
• JP Sears (3.065): $3.5MM
• Luis Campusano (3.003): $1MM
• Mason Miller (2.166): $3.4MM
• Freddy Fermin (2.165: $1.8MM

I would not offer Sheets or Sears the estimated MLB Trade Rumors amounts - both are too high by at least 0.5M in my opinion.  I can see us spending the total amount indicated for all 7 players but I'd put more money on Morejon and Miller and possibly a tad more on Fermin.

Quote from fenn68 on October 7, 2025, 5:48 am

Remember these are arbitration decisions that occur only if the Padres and the player don't agree on a deal in their negotiations. Really, at this point, no idea of the Padres' offer or what the player will accept. So an agreement before arbitration could yield a higher or lower number ... if agreement.

IF no agreement and these numbers come out but the Padres don't want to pay ... they can release the player (or trade him) before the season and avoid the pay. Alternative (but unlikely) they could anticipate the arbitration level and find that unacceptable then just non-tender the player and let them walk as a FA.

Given the need for adding to the offense even with Sheets ... and not probable to find those upgrades AND a replacement for Sheets for less than the projected arb number ... they pay.

Sears might be a different debate ... $3.5MM is a bit steep for a pitcher who MIGHT be contending for a #5 SP or "insurance" in AAA. Never know how the Padres project Sears value ... remember they did ask for him in the trade. He did not look good in his SD time .. but in 2023 and 2024 he did give innings with 32 starts in each season and a mid-4 ERA (not great but the innings give some value as a #5 pitcher). He did have 27 starts in 2025 even with the Padres optioning him to the minors.

In this world $3.5MM is not much for a #5 SP who goes out every start ... eats innings ... and, yes, just delivers a 4.50 ERA. So, most likely Padres tender him ... take the arb decision ... wait until the rest of the starting sorts out (e.g. sign King or commit to convert Miller) ... then make the call on Sears (release or trade ... should be a market for a PTNL).

 

Quote from fenn68 on October 7, 2025, 6:10 am

Pretty safe bet that King declines his option ... Padres make the QO ... then

1. King could accept to get that one year larger payout and believe he will do better as a FA after a healthy 2026 and without the QO costing the signing team to lose a draft pick.
2. King could decline believing he still could get a 3-4 year deal at an acceptable AAV ... thus giving him a guarantee payout protecting him from future injury or declining performance. That is a powerful motivator.

So, take the QO and add buyout and get $26MM for 2026 then unknown, OR decline QO take the buyout and sign a 3-4 year $18MM AAV ($54MM or $72MM) guaranteed.

Although officially his agent can't be negotiating with other teams yet ... most likely the agent through his contacts has a good idea on the market ... teams and contract zone that would be probable.

Players / agents do tend to go for longer team guaranteed money, so declining is likely. Not sure the Padres actually want to go long term / big money with King ... so good chance no meeting of the minds on a deal.

Quote from Jeremy Hill on October 7, 2025, 7:51 am

My mistake on Morejon. Baseball Reference still has him listed with Boras. The team does seem to have a good relationship with Lozano. At the price I think it will take to lock him up I still think I would only do it if he's open to a move back to the rotation.

Quote from Randy Manese on October 7, 2025, 8:50 am

Padres actually have two other players who are 1st time arbitration eligibles - Bryan Hoeing and Ron Marinaccio.  Don't expect that either will get a salary offer more than slightly above the league's minimum or, alternatively,  either or both could be traded or released.  Hoeing, with one option year left and a SP earlier in his career may have the edge to be retained and given a chance to compete for a job as SP depth.  Marinaccio is out of options and even though he has deceptively good MLB stats likely won't bring much value in trade if you can even find a club interested in him.

Quote from Randy Manese on October 8, 2025, 12:14 pm

With the World Series to start on 24 October, look for it to conclude no later than the 1st few days in November.  Padres fans will be waiting anxiously to see what kind of makeover the 2025 version will undergo.  I'll take a shot at what I think will happen:

Ramon Laureano - club option - easy-peasy - Padres pick up 6.5M salary and maybe even dangle an extension if there are surprises to what we think is the Padres budget for 2026 and beyond.  Has been under appreciated and a baseball vagabond in the past, so he might want stability in his life if the money is right.

Kyle Hart - club option - no way Padres will pay him 5M for the 2026 season since ineffective as SP in both majors and at EP;  buyout at 500K.  Was effective down the stretch as a RP and if wants to stay with the team for a little more than above league minimum (maybe up to 1.5M), would give Padres some depth on the LH RP side.  What happens in negotiations with Morejon and the decision by Peralta could affect the Padres course of action for Hart.

Elias Diaz - mutual option - no way they pay him 7M in 2026 so club declines their side and end up buying him out at 2M, which is really just a retroactive salary for the 2025 season where he only got 1.5M.  If Diaz willing to come back at what he got paid in salary for 2025, could be a surprise returnee and a allow a creative trade with Campusano and one of our depth RPs going to team that prioritizes his hitting over his catching deficiencies.

Michael King - mutual option - King will decline his side of the 15M option, he will receive at 3.75M buyout (which much like Diaz was estimated to be a combined fair salary he would have gotten in arbitration for the 2025 season) and become a free agent.  Padres will offer him the estimated 22M qualifying offer, which is right around his estimated market value.  Given his injuries this year, might be prudent to accept the 1 year deal and get his AAV closer to 30M for 2027 and beyond on a multi-year deal.  Even if he doesn't accept, still think the Padres will continue to pursue until he receives an offer that is beyond what they can afford - not sure they will even offer a multi-year.  This, like many have predicted, will be the pivotal off-season move for the Padres.

Robert Suarez - player option - will decline his 8M player option and become a free agent.  With incentives, he was actually paid 13M this year vice his 10M base salary, however, his market value is probably over 16M.  At his age, 35, and the projected replacements for him in our bullpen Padres cannot afford to bring him back, so no QO.

Wandy Peralta - player option - toss-up on whether he declines his 4.45M option since he had a relatively good year down the stretch and if he waits any longer likely will not get a higher base salary because of his age.  However, 4.45 million is a high amount for a non-closer and usually a non-high leverage RP so I think in the end he decides not to exercise his player option and play out the rest of his contract.  This, however, does not preclude the Padres possibly trading him and pairing him with a player they will have a hard time carrying on the 40 man or a minor league player.

Will comment on our pure free agents later.

 

Quote from fenn68 on October 8, 2025, 2:10 pm

Quote from Randy Manese on October 7, 2025, 8:50 am

Padres actually have two other players who are 1st time arbitration eligibles - Bryan Hoeing and Ron Marinaccio.  Don't expect that either will get a salary offer more than slightly above the league's minimum or, alternatively,  either or both could be traded or released.  Hoeing, with one option year left and a SP earlier in his career may have the edge to be retained and given a chance to compete for a job as SP depth.  Marinaccio is out of options and even though he has deceptively good MLB stats likely won't bring much value in trade if you can even find a club interested in him.

At least to start the winter ... see a lot of open spots on the roster even after adding players to protect from Rule 5 ... so since both are probably no more that a few $100K above minimum (and can be moved at any time) they are probably kept into ST (baring being in some trade). Hoeing has the option so should be safe (in AAA) but Marinaccio (and Reynolds also out of options) provide insurance to injury of others through ST ... or even a more impactful trade of one of the better RP (e.g. Adam, Estrada, Morgan).

Quote from fenn68 on October 8, 2025, 2:20 pm

Pretty much agree on the players on options.

Diaz is projected that as a FA he most likely will have to settle for a make good minor league deal ... but should note that a LOT of aging fringe catchers seem to be in that same category, so Preller may have a options.

If Fermin is clearly the #1 and the Padres want defense behind the plate as a priority ... they may try for a better defensive option than Diaz whose defense is "variable" at this point in his career.

I do think Campusano gets another chance through ST ... maybe as the #2 catcher maybe as the DH option if they can't land another option.

Padres NEED a legit back-up catcher (3rd C) to cover injuries ... zip in the system ... so chance they go with Campy on the roster to start the season and a signing sitting in AAA ... or go with Fermin, Campy, and another catcher on the 26 man.

 

Quote from Randy Manese on October 8, 2025, 4:29 pm

Now let's see examine our Free Agents:

Luis Arraez - Many, me included, considered what he received in arbitration as an overpay; a salary increase to about 12.5M would have been more appropriate. than the 14M he got.  Nonetheless, in many ways he earned his 2025 salary - led the NL in hits, stole the most bases in his career, second highest number of RBIs in his career, his extra base hits (2b's, 3b's and HR's) were close to his career highs, he actually hit better in PETCO than on the road, and for the most part, played a passable defense, especially picking balls out of the dirt - so why does it seem such a disappointing season for Arraez.  I think it boils down to his clutch hitting in which he lost over 100 points from 2024 with Runners in Scoring Position and when the game was Late and Close; in 2024, his average for both was over .350, while in 2025 it was in the 250 to 260 range.  Further, he  had career lows in OBP, BA, Barrel Rate, Hard Hit %, BABIP and wRC+.  Was this year an anomaly or is it the start of a downward spiral?

So, where do the Padres go with Arraez?  Certainly, they are not going to make him a QO.  SPOTRAC estimates his market value to be slightly higher than is 2025 salary, however, his set of skills even at his best will only fit the lineups of maybe a handful of teams for that amount of money.  What if the Padres can't re-sign King and O'Hearn decides to go elsewhere, would Arraez come back at a lower salary than what he got this year if invited by the Padres?  Stranger things have happened.  Again, waiting on King.

Dylan Cease - Statistically, had a poor year when compared to 2024 but if you look at the 2025 season compared to the entirety of his career most of his stats were not that far off what he has averaged since 2021.  Moreover his FIP was almost a full run lower than his ERA, which often indicates he pitched better than his record.  Inconsistently brilliant, he only averaged 5.1 IP per start and that put a lot of pressure on our bullpen.  There is no doubt that he has some of the best stuff in the league when he is on but he seems to be easily rattled and loses focus and rhythm in quick reversal to earlier dominance in the same inning.

With Boras as his agent and an estimated market value of over 26M, I now think it will be okay for the Padres to make him a QO, which he will decline.  Boras can't afford to have Cease have another bad year, so he's going to be selling the 2025 season as a 1-off.  Padre really can't afford to have another Snell-like pitcher on the mound for the bucks he is going to command so they don't really intend on re-signing him.  End result is at least a compensation pick for the Padres in the 2026 draft.

Nestor Cortes - hard to judge his value because of his injury filled season, but if his market value is around 12M, the Padres are likely to pass.  Only see his return on a make-good 2026 with a club or mutual option for the 2027 season.  Further, he didn't seem to take instruction very well from Niebla, expressing confidence in his own ideas of what he needed to work on.  Don't expect him back.  Not eligible for QO.

Jose Iglesias - disappointing offensively, but one of the best defensive players in the game.  When he was playing semi-regularly, did much better so if Padres want to give more time off their feet to Machado, Bogaerts and Cronenworth, than this might still be their guy.  Not sure they can afford him at 3M or Iglesias will take 3M or less to return.  Has a new career as a recording artist ahead of him so maybe he gives it one more try at age 36 with teammates that he likes in a city he likes.  It wouldn't surprise me if he returns.

Ryan O'Hearn - been discussed at length already as a 1b man who doesn't hit with massive power or a high BA.  Machado already expressed a desire to see him return and I believe most of the fans would to see him return if the price is right.  SPOTRAC has an estimated market value of 11.5M for him and that seems about right or possibly a tad high.  Wasn't that good in KC and much better in a hitters park in Baltimore although won't give you 25+ HRs in a season.  Looking for a multi-year deal but may be disappointed by the numbers and may be unsigned into early 2026.  If don't re-sign King and don't go after Arraez, might be another possible surprise returnee.  If came back under those circumstances would move Sheets to DH and allow a RH DH complement like Campusano, Franmil Reyes or Refsnyder, the latter of which might be available for 2-3M.  The King impact continues.