Forum
Forum Navigation
2025-26 Offseason thread
#271 · December 11, 2025, 7:11 am
Stepping away from the "blockbuster" deal ... what is the thought of Padres dealing with BALT now that Alonso is locked in at 1B for the future and they have one of the top prospects in MLB as the DH in Basallo?
Two potential targets for DH/1B:
Mountcastle ... 28 year old veteran (FA after 2026) projected as an "average" hitter (about 100 wRC+) and, in arbitration, a $7-8MM salary. BALT has been trying to move him for some time so may eat a bunch of his contract or take back a partially offsetting salary (e.g. Matsui)?
Mayo ... WAS a high potential prospect who did not show well in his brief ML time in 2025 but still is projected as an "average" hitter. More a gamble than what appears to be the evaluation of Mountcastle. However, he still has theoretical upside at 24 ... at league minimum ... 6 year control ... likely would require a strong trade chip to get.
Either COULD be a cheap useful add for the 9th hitter or platoon with Sheets as RHH.
Still keeping an eye out for a signing of Castellanos (at a league minimum) but still that would not take away from the BALT trade allowing a some sort of three into two slots as the season progresses.
#272 · December 11, 2025, 7:42 am
Realistically, too early in the off-season for Preller to consummate any deals with the chips he had available to put in play. As more of the big names go off the board and teams start thinking about their budgets and what level of the 2026 AAV they'll be at, the groundwork that Preller laid in the last 3 days may come to fruition.
With the exception of Cease, who I believe is on a contract the Blue Jays are going to regret sooner than later, all the top Padres free agents remain unsigned allowing for a reunion of sorts, no matter how unlikely. The Cease contract probably stalled the signing of many of the top SP who believe they can get a contract close to what Cease got. Because of this, more likely some of the remaining hitters will sign before the pitchers even though 30+ million for the two top DH's shows how unbelievably high the market is for hitters who can't contribute on defense. Makes the contracts of Tatis, Jr. and Merrill look very good, even Manny's who structured his contract to receive his higher salaries at the end vice the beginning of his career.
Looking forward to some dynamic adds because this roster still is capable of making the playoffs.
#273 · December 11, 2025, 10:44 am
Just never know the Preller thinking. Would not be surprised if we see no significant action until ST when players / teams get nervous but also not surprised if a deal came down before the end of the year.
Did see a comment that across the league there seems to be a bit of a squeeze on middle tier players (mainly offense) ... there are a lot on the FA market and in most cases the GM do not see enough separation to warrant paying one over another ... thus just waiting them out.
We will see.
#274 · December 11, 2025, 10:47 am
Suarez signs with ATL ... 3 years / $45MM for ages 35-36-37. Good deal for him getting the years.
#275 · December 11, 2025, 3:23 pm
What's the concensus on Kim? 1 year, make-do? Or is Boras going to hold out for more years/money?
Outside of Tatis and Merrill, EVERYONE in the organization is up for grabs as far as I'm concerned. Bogaerts, Cronenworth, Manny, Pivetta,whoever.....gotta find a way to get more financially flexible.
#276 · December 11, 2025, 4:44 pm
Quote from WindsorUK on December 11, 2025, 3:23 pmWhat's the concensus on Kim? 1 year, make-do? Or is Boras going to hold out for more years/money?
Outside of Tatis and Merrill, EVERYONE in the organization is up for grabs as far as I'm concerned. Bogaerts, Cronenworth, Manny, Pivetta,whoever.....gotta find a way to get more financially flexible.
He will get too much money for the Padres ... doubt the spend much on position players given the tight budget.
Can't see any moves with Merrill or Tatis ... young and cornerstones for now and the next decade. Can't really see any moves with Bogaerts or Machado given their ages and contracts ... who would take those? ... or Padres would have to eat most of the contracts (defeats the purpose) and pay up for a replacement ... net no benefit to the Padres ... at least in the near term.
Yeh, everyone else is in play but if freeing up money is the objective have to look at Pivetta (1 year about $20MM) and Cronenworth (5 years / $60MM). Darvish is not in play with the injury and Musgrove ($20MM) is at a low sell point.
Otherwise, no big contracts to move ... Laureano, Adam, Peralta, Matsui give a little but not game changing and have to be replaced. Need Laureano with no replacement and seeking added offense. Move all of Adam, Peralta, Matusi, and Sears could get near $15-20MM ... maybe with a deep pen of lower cost options that strategy (at least in part) might help.
Just hard to shuffle the deck with the objective of the playoffs in 2026 and come up with a winning roster given limited spending any any delete requires replacement (and that costs) along with still needing to fill holes.
For me Pivetta at $20MM is a key. Don't know if he can repeat his 2025 but sure he will opt out after 2026 ... but how do you replace even a less productive Pivetta without spending near his salary? A bit depend on the return (maybe that impact 9th hitter but league minimum long control) and use his $20MM with the other money in play and add two "good" SP each in the $15MM range?
Not easy for Preller.
Randy Manese has reacted to this post.
Randy Manese
#277 · December 11, 2025, 5:25 pm
How about using Pivetta's money for King? Around $20+ million on a...4/5 year deal, with opt outs along the way?
#278 · December 12, 2025, 12:00 pm
Quote from WindsorUK on December 11, 2025, 5:25 pmHow about using Pivetta's money for King? Around $20+ million on a...4/5 year deal, with opt outs along the way?
Given injury concerns ... doubt the Padres would want to commit to a 4/5 year deal with King. Plus does little for 2026 just shifting King in for Pivetta.
#279 · December 12, 2025, 12:25 pm
Rumors ... the current leader of the way out there one is the Padres getting Lindor from the Mets for Bogarts and Miller. Think this one was started on the local radio station (Steven Woods?) but is making the rounds (MLB radio, NY media). Part of the fuel is coming from the earlier reports that Preller was working on a blockbuster rivaling his Soto trade.
Not expecting this to materialize given no trade contracts, big money on long term deals (Lindor much bigger deal than Bogaerts). However, listening some NY media there seems to be great turmoil with the Mets and Lindor is in the mix.
Rumored that Lindor and Soto are at odds and creating some clubhouse conflict. (note there were rumors of clubhouse dissent with the NYY and in SD when Soto was on those teams ... so?) Mets fans are hostile over not signing Alonso or Diaz ... worse losing Diaz to the LAD. Cohen still wants to win and still will spend ... so freewheeling on his (and Sterns the GM) plan going forward to maybe appease the fans. That is enough on the Mets side to give any rumor legs.
At the same time METS are rumored to be after Skubal from the Tigers ... Tigers clearly willing to deal so that too has legs.
Enter a new rumor with Skubal and Miller to NYM ... Lindor to SD ... Bogaerts to Tigers ... with others in the trade along with money to even it out. That would be a blockbuster with the NYM doling out money to both SD and Detroit to offset payroll increases. Again not likely ... but creative.
So, hypothetically, would the Padres be better off (assuming current payroll stay as is) with Lindor at SS (6 yrs / $34MM AAV) vs Bogaerts (8 yrs / $25.5MM AAV) and Miller (4 yrs / rising AAV thru arbitration)? ... Actually the total commitment on the contracts actually lowers the Padre owe.
Don't hold your breath on any permutation of this rumor.
#280 · December 12, 2025, 12:41 pm
Putting the Lindor deal aside ... there may be a scenario that does make a NYM - SD deal feasible.
Mets are losing out on all the top closers (did sign Deven Williams but were still looking). Padres have a few end of game RP (maybe closer types). Mets have some ML (or near) ML ready hitters that could fit the Padres' future needs. Not the blockbuster (unless Padres use Pivetta or Miller) but could improve the roster.
Gamble here but Mets have two top 100 upper level Mil prospects ... one an OF (remember Laureano is only on a one year deal and apparently some teams are interested in dealing for him) and one an INF (remember Padres seem to want to move Cronenworth's contract). An Estrada or Morgan might get one of them. Miller might get both.
Preller does have a lot of lines of attack ... most will not work given other teams may not be as keen ... but guessing he is making all the calls.